Is there a best way to predict the housing market

Various studies demonstrate that you can assess and somewhat predict activity in a housing market; which, albeit in hindsight, can assist home sellers and buyers in determining whether it is a good time to sell or buy a home. For example, I recently wrote about gauging real estate through divorce and premarital agreements; which discussed the implications of these life events to the housing market. The increase in prenups could indicate an increased perception in the value of home ownership and possibly the overall housing market.

Another recent study indicated that it may be possible to determine home pricing through internet search data. Beracha and Wintoki (Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity; The Journal of Real Estate Research 35.3 (2013): 283-312.) set out to find out if keyword search engine data from Google could determine price shifts in various cities. They concluded that this may be the first study that directly links “aggregated” search engine data to “abnormal crosssectional home price changes.”

Essentially, the research established that you can figure out metro housing market activity through Google Trends and Google Insights, which provide keyword volume measurement in internet searches. The study examined the keywords “real estate [city]” from 2004 through 2011, and concluded that “…cities associated with abnormally high real estate search intensity consistently outperform cities with abnormally low real estate search volume by as much as 8.5% over a two-year period.”

And although the study’s authors discussed prior research linking internet keyword searches and consumer behavior, they caution that there are a number of keywords related to real estate that may be more relevant than the keywords used in their study. Regardless, the authors assume that their results may be useful in home sales and purchases. More importantly, it may seem as if their results may strengthen the link between specific search engine keywords (e.g, “real estate Rockville” or “real estate Bethesda”) and the ability to predict a housing bubble, or possibly home price peaks.

Generalized, “global” data, such as those described in Beracha and Wintoki’s study, and their meaning may be interesting; however, limiting yourself to such indiscriminate analysis for your home sale or purchase could be disadvantageous. Global data does not distinguish the many factors that impact regional markets; nor can it sort out differences within a local market (neighborhood data within a region can vary significantly).

Using “global” tools may be useful; however, if you are planning a home sale or purchase – seek out the assistance of a local Realtor®. Your real estate agent has access to local specific data that is reported through the MLS. Using MLS data, your agent can prepare a market analysis that compares your home to recent neighborhood sales; the breakdown can put your home in perspective and can give you a price range to assist you in listing or purchasing the home. Additionally, your agent can provide a hyper-local trend analysis so as to help you understand what to expect from the local housing market.

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by Dan Krell © 2013

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

July 25, 2013July 1, 2019

When is best time to sell a home

Buyers aren’t the only ones looking for a deal. Home sellers are also looking for a good deal – which means they want to sell their home for the most money. As it seemed as if the housing market had strong sales this year, some sellers are still trying to decide the best time to sell. But unfortunately, timing the market may not be as easy as it seems.

Some say that spring is the best time of year to list and sell a home, while others believe that summer is better. Old time real estate agents will tell you about a time when there was a traditional selling season, which basically started in March and ran through June. In recent history, it seems as if the boom/bust market from 2005-2008 rewrote those rules. During the “go-go” market, the spring selling season couldn’t start early enough; home buyers made their New Year’s resolutions and shook off the winter fog in early January to begin their home search. For several years, it seemed as if home buyers started their real estate searching earlier each year to stake their claims on real estate before other buyers got wind of the listing.

However, once the bubble busted, home buyer activity significantly slowed, those who wanted to buy a home became increasingly methodical about their purchase as well as starting their search later in the year. It seemed as if the best time to list and sell shifted from the spring time to summer months.

Since the downturn of the housing market, sales activity peaked in the summer months. June has been a consistent contender for year high sale totals – until this year. The July 22^nd news release from the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) indicated that June sales “slipped” about 1.9% from May. Granted, June’s sales are significantly higher than June of 2012, but the slowdown may just be a fluke or an indication of something else.

Maybe the combination of increased inventory (NAR reported that housing inventory was slightly elevated from May to about a 5.2 month supply) along with rising mortgage rates (Freddie Mac’s June national average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 4.07%) is making home buyers pause.

And surely home prices are making buyers have second thoughts; bargain hunters are having difficulty finding bargains. June’s national median existing home sale price increased 13.5% compared to last June. Distressed home sales, foreclosures and short sales that typically sell at lower prices, accounted for 15% of June’s figures (compared to last June’s 26%) and are at the lowest levels since 2008. And although it may sound like great news, the double-digit jumps in the average home sale price may be a statistical artifact due to declining distressed home sales.

If you’re waiting to list your home for sale this year, you may have mistimed this year’s market.

Research has demonstrated that attempting to time the market may not always yield the best results – timing the market is much easier in hind sight. Market timing appears to be much more than looking at selling activity cycles. You should rely on the expertise of your real estate professional for neighborhood sales data and trends to assist you in deciding the price and the timing of listing and selling your home.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

September 6, 2012October 11, 2012

Has the housing market improved in the last four years

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

In retrospect, the beginning of the global recession in late 2007 was the end of the housing boom and may have spawned the foreclosures crisis and the financial crisis of 2008. And although this period of time will undoubtedly become the basis of many future dissertations examining the “Great Recession;” you might ask “how much has the state of housing improved since 2008?”

If you recall, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) was anticipated to have wide reaching changes in the mortgage and housing industries as well as supposed to have assisted struggling home owners. This multifaceted piece of legislation consolidated many individual bills addressing issues that were thought to either be the cause or the result of the financial crisis. Besides raising mortgage loan limits to increase home buyer activity, the historic legislation was the beginning of changes meant to “fix” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as “modernizing” FHA to make the mortgage process easier for home buyers and refinancing easier for struggling home owners. Additionally, this law was the origination of the Hope for Homeowners program to assist home owners facing foreclosure (www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/110/hr3221).

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), originated from HERA, has been the “conservator” of the then sinking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since the FHFA took control, there has been conjecture as to what would become of the mortgage giants: some talked about closing their doors, while some talked about changing their role in the mortgage industry. Since FHFA became the oversight agency, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has strengthened their role in maintaining liquidity in the housing market by helping struggling home owners with their mortgages as well as freeing up lender capital by the continued purchases of loans (fhfa.gov)

The inception of Hope for Homeowners was the beginning of a string of government programs designed to assist home owners facing foreclosure, or assist underwater home owners refinance their mortgage. Although there have been individual success stories, there has been criticism that these programs did not assist the expected numbers of home owners. A January 24th CNNMoney article by Tami Luhby (money.cnn.com) reported that “…the HAMP program, which was designed to lower troubled borrowers’ mortgage rates to no more than 31% of their monthly income, ran into problems almost immediately. Many lenders lost documents, and many borrowers didn’t qualify. Three years later, it has helped a scant 910,000 homeowners — a far cry from the promised 4 million…” and “HARP, which was intended to reach 5 million borrowers, has yielded about the same results. Through October, when it was revamped and expanded, the program had assisted 962,000…” (money.cnn.com/2012/01/24/news/economy/Obama_housing/index.htm).

Despite the recent slowdown in foreclosure activity, there is disagreement about the projected number of foreclosures going into 2013. A March 29^th Corelogic news release (www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-almost-65,000-completed-foreclosures-nationally-in-february.aspx) reported that there have been about 3.4 million completed foreclosures since 2008 (corelogic.com). And although an August 9^th RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/july-2012-us-foreclosure-market-report-7332) report indicated a 3% decrease from June to July and a 10% decrease from the previous year in foreclosure filings; July’s 6% year over year increase in foreclosure starts (initial foreclosure filings) was the third straight month of increases in foreclosure starts.

So, if you’re wondering if housing is better off today than it was four years ago, the answer may be a resounding “maybe;” It all depends on your situation.

More news and articles on “the Blog”

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 3 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

October 15, 2009October 5, 2019

Pending optimism for housing market

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced that pending home sales are up for the seventh straight month. The October 1st press release indicated that the number of signed contracts increased to the highest level since March of 2007; the August pending home sales index is up 6.4% from July and up 12.4% from August 2008 (Realtor.org).

Not to be confused with the existing home sale index, (which calculates the actual number of closed transactions as well as median home prices), the pending home sales index reports activity that is based on the number of signed contracts in any given month; the index is used to compare monthly home buyer activity.

Alone, the pending home sales index doesn’t say much other than that home buyers are interested in getting into the market. However, when combined with the recent existing home sales index, which recently reported that August home sales slightly decreased compared to July of this year (but still remained above the August 2008 sales figures); the story that emerges is one we are not used to hearing.

Although it may be true that some home buyers are being turned down for loans due to a rapidly changing mortgage industry, however, the disparity between the indices may also indicate that the state of the present market is based on delayed home sales. Until about a year ago, it was unusual for anyone to write an offer that had a closing date of forty five days or more. During the real estate boom earlier this decade, a home seller would almost certainly pass over your offer if you could not settle in thirty days or less. However, since a large number of distressed properties have penetrated the market, multi month closing delays and even unsuccessful closings (sometimes banks foreclose before a successful close of a short sale) have become common and sometimes expected. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, stated in the October 1st press release that, “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales…”

Pending sales are also outpacing home sales here in Montgomery County (as reported by the Greater Capitol Association of Realtors, Homes Sales Statistics for Single Family Homes; August 2009); however sales indicators show an overall increase from 2008. Home sales increased 24.8% in August 2009 as compared to August of 2008, however decreased approximately 16% from July 2009.

The missed story, however, may actually be the shrinking local home sale inventory. Although, national home inventory is slowly decreasing, local inventory of homes for sale has decreased significantly from last year (as reported by the Greater Capitol Association of Realtors, Homes Sales Statistics for Single Family Homes; August 2009). Single family homes available for sale in Montgomery County decreased about 47% comparing the inventories of August 2009 to August 2008!

Although a shrinking inventory often means increased home buyer competition, don’t expect another historic seller’s market anytime soon. An expiring home buyer tax credit combined with an expected new wave of foreclosures and a changing mortgage industry may have a significant effect on the market. But for now, pending optimism remains for a stable real estate market.

This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of October 5, 2009. Copyright © 2009 Dan Krell

June 24, 2007November 23, 2021

Condo Craze or Just a Phase?

by Dan Krell © 2007
Google+

When you think of a condo, what may come to mind is the typical flat in a building. However, condos come in many shapes and sizes, including duplexes, townhomes and semi-detached homes. The term condo is actually in reference to ownership, rather than style of home. Condominium ownership means that your home is part of a condominium association that owns and maintains common areas, while you own the interior space of your unit. The common areas typically include the building exterior and common grounds as well as amenities, such as a pool or play ground.

Everyone in who owns a unit in the association pays a fee, typically monthly, for maintenance costs. Condo fees vary depending on the size of the association, types of amenities, and whether or not utilities are included.

For some, living in a condo offers convenience and worry free living that a single family home does not. Many condos developments are convenient to the amenities of downtown areas, such as Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, and Silver Spring. These homes can be close to metro too, reducing your need to drive a car. Additionally condo ownership typically means that you don’t have to concern yourself with mowing a lawn or repairing a roof, as the association takes responsibility for these things.

Condo living is an affordable opportunity to owning a home. Compared to single family homes and townhomes, condos tend to be less expensive and a viable option for many first time homeowners.

There is a downside to condo ownership, however. Although condos may be more affordable, history suggests that they do not appreciate as fast as other types of homes. Because some condo buildings appear densely populated, some neighbors can be noisy. Additionally, the level of maintenance may vary depending on the condo association and management company.

If you are considering purchasing a condo, here are some ideas to assist you. First, exercise your right under Maryland law to review the condo docs. The condo docs include the association rules and bylaws as well as a recent budget, which includes reserve funds for emergencies. Reviewing the condo docs can reveal rules that may impact your lifestyle, such as having a pet. Additionally, the budget and reserves can reveal how well the association manages condo funds.

If you have an opportunity, attend a board meeting to get a feel for what is happening within the association. Internal politics can impact the way the condo is managed. If you want to have input in the direction of the condo association, get involved with the association board.

Although the condo association has an insurance policy that covers the physical building, you may want to consider a policy to cover your possessions inside your unit.

Parking in your development can be easy or it could be a problem. You may have one or two reserved spaces for your unit. However, if your condo is convenient to metro or other amenities, you may find non-residents taking advantage of this.

No matter how you look at it, purchasing a condo can be a practical and affordable home for any home buyer. As there are many considerations when purchasing a condo, ask your Realtor for additional resources and ideas in helping you decide on the best home.

by Dan Krell © 2013

Dan Krell, Realtor® DanKrell.com © 2012

So, if you’re wondering if housing is better off today than it was four years ago, the answer may be a resounding “maybe;” It all depends on your situation.

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012