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July 12, 2019July 12, 2019

Next Market Downturn

The current US economy just hit a milestone by becoming the longest stretch of economic growth in our Nation’s modern history. The expansion is now in the 121^st month. The previous expansion record was 120 months, and occurred between March 1991 and March 2001. Most attribute the dot-com bubble as the precipitating event that ended that period of expansion. Many have been anticipating the end of the current expansion for several years. And they will eventually be correct when this period of economic growth inevitably ends in a downturn, recession, or correction. To prepare, experts suggest to start saving for the next market downturn.

Earlier this year, I wrote about housing market mini-cycles are different from a full-blown recession. Then (and now), housing indicators are mostly positive. Although the next next market downturn is unlikely to be caused by another housing crisis, it doesn’t mean that the housing market won’t be affected by other economic factors.

Whatever triggers the next recession will undoubtedly become an economic contagion that will spread across many industries, including housing. The chain of events are generally characterized as: consumer sentiment drops which causes people to spend less money which causes businesses to slow which results in unemployment. Home owners who lose their jobs may have difficulty in repaying their mortgages, and are at risk of default or losing their homes.

Lessons for the next market downturn

Economic and financial lessons are learned with each recession. The dot-com bubble recession in 2001 made many rethink the policy of raising interest rates when markets are signaling trouble. Many are still studying the Great Recession, but one of the take-aways is that job creation is key in economic growth and prosperity.

How will the next market downturn affect housing? The housing market typically responds to a recession through home price reductions. A NAR Economist’s Outlook from October 23, 2018 (How Do Housing Market Conditions Compare in 2004 and 2018?; nar.realtor) suggests that home prices will likely fall but not as sharply as we experienced in 2008. This is mostly due to home sale inventory and home prices. The housing market is much different than it was prior to the last recession. According to the latest NAR press release on existing home sales (nar.realtor), the median existing home sale price during May increased 4.8 percent. This is the 87^th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Additionally, home sale inventory remains at historic lows.

Start saving

A recent press release from the JPMorgan Chase Institute indicates that the conventional wisdom about mortgage default may be incorrect (jpmorganchase.com). The institute’s study was published in report “Trading Equity for Liquidity: Bank Data on the Relationship between Liquidity and Mortgage Default.” A major conclusion is that having three months of housing costs in reserve can save your home in the event of recession and job loss. This is counter to the conventional wisdom of the post-recession era policies of home buyers having “skin in the game” by making larger down payments. Having home equity is also not a guarantee of making mortgage payments. Home equity is relative to the housing market and home prices. The study concluded that “liquidity is a more useful predictor of mortgage default than home equity, income level, and payment burden—especially for borrowers with limited liquidity at closing.”

Even though the Great Recession officially ended ten years ago, the memories are still fresh. There will be eventually a recession or market correction. And the main concern for most home owners is how to prepare. Unfortunately, we can’t predict the exact timing and severity of a recession. However, most experts suggest saving and having several months of reserves in case of job loss.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/07/12/next-market-downturn

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

July 4, 2019July 4, 2019

Swimming Pool and Home Value

Wouldn’t it be nice to beat the summer time heat in a swimming pool? Besides cooling off, the idea of having a swimming pool is attractive to many home owners for many reasons, including entertaining guests and exercise (if large enough). Pool company advertisements suggest a swimming pool can make your yard more attractive, and add value to your home. But is a swimming pool really worth it? It all depends on the local housing market and your lifestyle.

Statistics and information compiled by The Spruce (thespruce.com), an online lifestyle magazine, reveals swimming pool popularity from sources such as the Association of Pool & Spa Professionals and the US Census. Incredibly, there are 10.4 million residential and 309,000 public swimming pools in the United States. Swimming is the fourth most popular activity, and is the most popular among children and teens. The top five states with inground pools are California, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and New York. Swimming statistics in the US indicate that thirty-six percent of children and fifteen percent of adults swim annually.

Before you start digging, there’s a lot to consider. Besides liability and health concerns, let’s discuss a pool’s added value on your home. The question whether adding a swimming pool is a good investment depends on a number of factors. Real estate research typically validates such questions, unfortunately, studies are lacking. However, there is such an analysis from 1981 by Benedict J. Frederick (Effect of a Swimming Pool on Single-Family Home Value; Appraisal Journal; July 1981, Vol. 49 Issue 3, p376). Even Frederick confessed he was hard pressed to find academic interest in the topic, citing a previous study from 1961. Nonetheless, the study conducted in suburban Baltimore yielded these conclusions: A pool can add about 7 percent to the price of a home; a pool’s market value may be 50-75 percent of the pool’s replacement cost; having pool amenities, such as a heater, can boost value; 40 percent of the market believe having a pool is a liability.

A swimming pool’s added value may be tricky, especially if other neighborhood homes don’t have a pool. If you’re the only residential pool in the neighborhood, the added value to your home may be minimal. In fact, having a swimming pool may be a disincentive for many home buyers, and could negatively affect the value.

There’s also the expense of maintaining a pool. Melissa Dittmann Tracey, writing for Realtor Magazine (Are Pools Worth the Expense?; nar.realtor), points out that typical swimming pool maintenance can have an annual cost of about $3,000-$5,000. And that’s if everything works properly. If components need replacing, then the cost can rise quickly. Older pools require updates and component replacements. Resurfacing or redecking expenses can vary, but Tracey estimates a typical cost to be $5,000 to $10,000 (depending on size of pool). Renovating a pool can cost upwards of $20,000. If you’re tired of the pool and want to reclaim your back yard, removing a pool can also be expensive. Depending on the pool and yard size, a pool removal typically ranges from $3,000 to $15,000.

Given the research and industry statistics, the decision to build a back-yard swimming pool is more likely a lifestyle choice rather than for home improvement. However, for those who enjoy the pool but don’t want the expense or liability of ownership, joining a club or swimming at the public pool are common alternatives.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/07/04/swimming-pool-and-home-value/

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June 24, 2019July 22, 2019

Downsizing myths debunked

Downsizing was once thought of as a rite of passage for empty-nesters and retirees. It was considered the next stage of homeownership after enjoying the big house and puttering in the yard. But everything you thought you knew about downsizing is probably stereotyped and incorrect. Housing and generational trends has everyone rethinking their downsizing plans.

Results of a recent survey that was conducted on behalf of Del Webb, a developer and builder of active adult communities, revealed that a majority of 50 to 60-years-olds are not planning to downsize (pultegroup.com). A majority of the survey’s respondents who are planning a future move indicated that they don’t intend to move into a smaller home.

Many older adults are actually are looking for a larger house! In fact, 71 percent who plan a future move want a single-family home, and 63 percent desire a home with three or more bedrooms. These results may be due in part to multi-generational and cohabitation housing trends. Many of the 50-year old’s who took part in the survey indicated they planned to buy a home that can also house their parents.

Jay Mason, vice president of market intelligence for PulteGroup, the nation’s third largest homebuilder and owner of the Del Webb brand, stated in the press release, “Rather than staying put, today’s 50- and 60-year olds are thinking ahead to their next big move. While millennials seem to make the headlines, there are over 140 million Generation X and baby boomers in the United States, many with the means, confidence and desire to stay active in the housing market.”

Mason described a majority of GenXer and baby-boomer respondents as “looking for a different quality of life when considering their next move.” Of those planning a move, 87 percent are leaning towards a suburban or rural area. More specifically, 60 percent described their next home as a “quiet, tranquil place where they can slow down and get some peace.”

Downsizing is a housing trend that is building momentum in younger generations as well. Many home owners who thought of having a large home and yard are rethinking their lifestyles. By reducing the time and costs of maintaining a large home and yard, they are able enhance their daily lives.

A major consideration is that downsizing doesn’t always reduce housing costs. It is possible that the newer condo (or house) you’re considering to purchase may actually cost more than the sale price of your current home. Besides the actual cost of the home, there are also associated costs of homeownership. For example, the property tax of your new home could be more than what you’re currently paying. Additionally, it is likely that your new home may have the additional cost of an HOA or condo fees.

Downsizing also doesn’t mean that you have to buy your next home. A Realtor Magazine news article (More Older Home Owners Choose to Rent; magazine.realtor; January 12, 2016) cites US Census data that indicates half of the home owners aged 55-64 are either staying in their current homes, or deciding to rent instead of purchasing another one.

Are you thinking of downsizing? Downsizing requires planning, not just about where to live but also considering the disposition of your current home. To help you decide if downsizing is in your future, consult with your CPA and/or financial planner to help you understand the costs of downsizing. To understand the current housing market and sale prices in your neighborhood, consult a local Realtor.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/24/downsizing-myths-debunked/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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June 15, 2019June 3, 2020

Summer home safeguards

Did you know that the AAA estimates that there will be about 100 million Americans who will take a family vacation this year (aaa.com)? If you’re one of those millions planning a trip this summer, you’re likely stressing over your plans. Some of that stress is certainly vacation planning, but some may be about leaving your home vacant for several or more days. Besides planning your vacation, you should also plan to “summerize” your home by taking some summer home safeguards.

Just like winterizing a vacant home before winter, summerizing is safeguarding your home while your away on vacation. And just like winterizing a home, summerizing is implementing a preventative plan to secure your home and possibly save a few dollars. Here are a few common knowledge ideas for summer home safeguards.

To save a few dollars, many homeowners adjust the HVAC thermostat while vacationing. Some even turn off the HVAC system. However, if you have a basement or cellar, consider adjusting the thermostat to a reasonable temperature (and/or use a dehumidifier) to prevent mold growth in a dark and potentially humid area of the home.

If your home will be vacant for an extended period, consider unplugging “zombie” appliances. Zombie appliances are appliances that consume electricity even when they are not in use. Many small appliances and internet connected appliances (such as your TV and other entertainment devices) are included in this category.

One of the biggest concerns while away is the potential of returning to a waterlogged home. A faulty valve or supply line can leak at any time. If you’re away, you obviously can’t immediately respond to this scenario. Although some home owners turn off the water at the main valve, this can interfere with a sprinkler system. Most shut off specific valves to appliances and fixtures. Some vacationing home owners also shut off outside water hose bibs to prevent others from using water at their expense.

Securing your home can deter burglars and pests. Although it’s tempting to brag to your friends about your vacation, refrain from posting about your plans on social media. Store your valuables in a safe, inconspicuous place. If you don’t have a security system, consider installing a camera and lighting system that can alert you of unexpected activity. An exterior camera and lighting system can be a major deterrent. However, interior cameras can also alert you of a determined intruder so you can take appropriate action.

To deter mice and other rodents from ransacking your home while you’re away, ensure that the home’s doors and windows are shut and secure. Also, make sure the exterior dryer vent cover is closed. Find and seal any holes where rodents can gain access your home.

You may also want to employ some common some summer home safeguards strategies that make it appear as if you never went on vacation. Connect a few lights to a timer to give the impression that someone is turning on lights at night. Ask your neighbor or a friend to park in your driveway (or reserved space). Although stopping the paper and mail while on vacation may seem clever, some home owners have a friend or neighbor pick up the daily paper and mail.

One of the most common aspects of some summer home safeguards is having a trusted neighbor and/or friend occasionally check on the home. They can ensure the home is secure, pick up any packages left at the door, and deal with any necessary maintenance (such as adjusting the thermostat). Spreading this responsibility among multiple “guardians” can make it less of a burden and increase the frequency of “check-ins.”

Many local police departments offer a home security survey. Consider going through the survey to help with your planning.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/15/summer-home-safeguards/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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June 8, 2019June 8, 2019

Great time to buy a home

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, now may be your time to jump into the market. Maybe you’ve been wary of home prices, or concerned about mortgage rates. Maybe you’ve been attempting to “time the market” to get a good deal on a home. Regardless of your reason for waiting to buy a home, you shouldn’t ignore the current market conditions. It’s as if a perfect storm of home buying conditions is lining up to a great time to buy a home.

The big news is that mortgage interest rates continue to drop. National average mortgage rates have been declining since the fall, moving closer to the historic bottom! The May 30^th U.S. weekly average for a thirty-year fixed rate mortgage provided by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey(freddiemac.com) dropped to 3.99 percent. Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham reported on June 3^rd that mortgage rates dropped further (mortgagenewsdaily.com). Graham’s title “Mortgage Rates Continue to Plummet” is telling.

Although economists express confidence in the economy, they attribute the movement in mortgage interest rates to the current trade wars and bond market activity. The mortgage industry may also be anticipating a Fed rate cut at the next week’s meeting of the Open Market Committee.

Lower mortgage rates aren’t always a reason to take the plunge into the housing market. But what about moderating home sale prices? The FHFA Home Price Index (fhfa.gov) indicates that nationwide average home prices increased only 1.1 percent during the first quarter of 2019! Compared to the year-over-year 5.1 percent HPI increase, the modest first quarter gain may indicate a more affordable housing market. Locally, the Montgomery County year-over-year average home sale price only increased 0.2 percent, according to MarketStats by ShowingTime (getsmartcharts.com). However, the average price per square foot decreased 14.3 percent!

Another factor making it a great time buy a home is the lackluster spring home sales. Counter to what is expected, home sales have somewhat cooled during the spring. A May 30^th NAR press release titled “Pending Home Sales Trail Off 1.5% in April” indicates that national home sales have been declining. In fact, the forward-looking indicator based on contract signings dropped 1.5 percent this past month. The total pending home sales in Montgomery County dropped about 2.8 percent compared to last spring.

There are increasingly more housing choices. Although housing supply remains tight, there were about 2.5 percent more new listings this April compared to the same time last year. Although many of these new listings go quickly, increasing new listings mean that there are more home sellers that are entering the market this year giving you more homes to consider.

Putting all the data points together signify a great time to buy a home. Housing affordability has increased, partly due in part by increasing family incomes, lower mortgage rates, and moderating home prices. Home sellers who are listing their homes for sale this spring are adjusting their sale price expectations. Homes that have been on the market for an extended time may be an opportunity for you to negotiate a lower sale price. According to mortgage experts, average mortgage rates have “plummeted,” giving you more flexibility and possibly lower housing costs.

These home buying conditions may not last very long. But before you decide to buy, determine if buying a home is the right choice by consulting a Realtor and other financial professionals.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/08/great-time-to-buy-a-home/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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