Category: real estate

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When will move-up homebuyers return to the housing market

by Dan Krell
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DanKrell.com
© 2013

Move-up home buyers missing from housing recovery; when will move-up home buyers return to the housing market?

home for saleI recently came across an interesting article about “move-up” home buyers online titled, “Move-up Buyer Provides The Base For A Recovering Housing Market.” The piece, published by the Chicago Tribune, is not unlike the many articles you might find today about the missing move-up buyer in the housing recovery. However, this article is different – it was published August 17, 1985 (article can be found here: articles.chicagotribune.com/1985-08-17/news/8502240441_1_interest-rates-trade-up-market-home-resale-market).

The striking similarities between the current housing recovery and a real estate market that was recovering from one of the deepest modern recessions up to that time (during the early 1980’s), includes home buyer behavior and economic concerns. And of course, the affected move-up buyer sector and the dearth of inventory appear to be familiar.

Home buyer behavior doesn’t have seemed to have changed much as many would-be home buyers are trying to time their purchase with the market bottom. At that time, like today, interest rate pressures are helped home buyers decide to jump into the market; additionally, then like today a significant number of buyers were first time home buyers. Downward pressure on mortgage interest rates, combined with the fear of rising rates affected home buyers to get off of the fence. However, peek mortgage interest rates averaged about 15% in the early 1980’s.

Another similarity between both periods is the missing move-up market. The typical move-up home buyer is sometimes described as a home owner who decides they need more space, which results in the sale of their smaller home and the purchase of a larger home. Then like today, the move- up home buyer was the missing piece to the housing recovery; the move-up home buyer provides much of the housing inventory that first time home buyers seek. However, it seems as if a “psychological barrier” (as described by the Chicago Tribune piece) holds back many move-up buyers today as it did in 1985. During the current housing recovery, many potential move-up buyers have remained in their homes.

Like other housing recoveries, one of the main issues holding back the move-up buyer is housing appreciation. During an early recovery, home owners may have a difficult time rationalizing buying a larger more expensive home when the new home could depreciate the first year of ownership, let alone the thought of a perceived loss of equity in their current home.

As home prices stabilize it would be reasonable to think that there will be an increased presence of the move-up home buyer. A good example of this was in the housing recovery that took place during 2003-2004. At that time, low mortgage interest rates helped first time home buyers back to the marketplace, and the move-up buyer sector took off relatively quickly when rapid home appreciation was realized. Of course rapid home appreciation was a function of “easy money” that generated real estate speculation that produced the “go-go market” of 2005-2006, the housing bubble, and the subsequent financial/housing crises.

The similarities of a post recession housing recovery might indicate there is currently progress. However, the move-up home buyer sector may be one of the final pieces to the recovery puzzle; and until the move-up home buyer presence is felt in the marketplace, we may yet to endure a few more years of “recovery.”

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of April 1, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Buyer and seller expectations can affect real estate sales

by Dan Krell
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DanKrell.com
© 2013

Home SalesBuyer and seller expectations can affect the housing market

Recent positive housing news has raised expectations for many home sellers, but not for some home buyers who are looking for a great deal. This combination of seller and buyer expectations can make for an interesting spring market.

Expectations, much like beliefs, are influenced by your experiences as well as information to which you’re exposed. A combination of media reports and stories by relatives, friends, and co-workers could create an expectation about the home buying process that could be practical or unrealistic.

Regardless of your expectations, the home selling/buying process is full of pitfalls and surprises. If you’re not prepared, your expectations could set you up for disappointment. Of the many components of the sale/purchase process, the highest expectations are typically placed on pricing and the home inspection.

Home sellers obviously want to sell their home for the highest price. News of low inventory and increasing average home sale prices nationally and regionally would lead you to believe that your home could fetch a higher price. Of course, expectations of a higher price should be reality checked with factual neighborhood data.

Home buyers, on the other hand, want to buy a perfect home and feel as if they bought for a good price. For many buyers, stories of homes purchased at serious discounts are fresh in their memories and may set an unrealistic expectation. Once again, factual data can be a reality check; and depending on the neighborhood, savvy negotiation could be warranted. For example, buyers are encountering fierce competition (not unlike the market just before the financial crisis) in some neighborhoods. And although home buyers are rushing to see homes recently added to the inventory, many are not interested in paying the list price. And although some homes are getting multiple offers, many are not. And of those receiving multiple offers, many of those offers are below list price.

Additionally, appraisals can be an issue too; buyers and sellers alike typically expect that the home appraises for the contract price. If not properly prepared, some home sellers can react to low appraisals by initially finding fault with the appraiser’s comparables and methodology, as well as wanting the buyer to pay the balance; while home buyers may experience increased uncertainty and doubt about their purchase.

High expectations are typically had for the home inspection by all. Home sellers who put forth the effort to prepare their home for a sale, often spending money for updates and upgrades, expect the home inspection to reveal a perfect home. If not prepared, the seller can become headstrong when confronted with an inspection that is other than exemplary. Buyers wanting a perfect home may also be demanding of even inconsequential repairs to be made by the seller.

Buyers and sellers sometimes choose to work with agents who offer promise to meet their sometimes unrealistic expectations, only to be let down by the reality of the sale/purchase process.

Veteran real estate agents often appreciate the novelty of each real estate transaction, due to the ever changing market, circumstances of the transaction, as well as the personalities of the parties involved. Your real estate agent can help you set the tone of your expectations; an experienced and skillful real estate agent can prepare you for the ups and downs of the selling/buying process by reframing your expectations to fit the reality of your neighborhood housing market.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of March 25, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Renovate your home with FHA 203k

FHA 203k
Renovate your home with a FHA 203k

If you’re like many home buyers, you’re probably looking for a home that is “turnkey” or an updated home that is ready to move right in.  However, since inventory is tight, competition can get intense.  But rather than passing on the “diamond in the rough,” consider the FHA 203k.

The FHA 203k is HUD’s rehabilitation loan.  The “203k” actually refers to the section within the National Housing Act that provides HUD with the ability “…to promote and facilitate the restoration and preservation of the Nation’s existing housing stock;” in other words provide mortgages to renovate and rehabilitate existing homes.  Although the program is not allowed to provide for “luxury” upgrades (such as hot tubs), the program may be used “…to finance such items as painting, room additions, decks and other items…”

If you’re purchasing a home that is not a total rehab project, there is a streamlined version of the program that can assist you to purchase the home and provide additional funds (up to $35,000) for improvements and upgrades.  The FHA 203k-streamline is a “limited loan program” designed to provide quicker access to funds so your home move-in ready relatively quickly.

The “203k” process is relatively straight forward.  After identifying a home, you should consult your 203k lender and consultant about the feasibility of a FHA 203k.  A project proposal is prepared detailing a cost estimate for each repair/improvement.  During loan underwriting, the appraisal is completed to determine the value of the home after the proposed repairs/improvements are completed.  If the mortgage is approved, the home is purchased with the loan and the remaining funds are placed in escrow to pay for the project.

Much like a typical mortgage, you must qualify for the program by meeting underwriting standards for borrowers.  However, unlike the typical mortgage, additional underwriting requirements include review of architectural plans and repair estimates (materials and labor) from licensed contractors.  HUD approved consultants/inspectors examine and evaluate the project’s progress to ensure work is completed and compliant with HUD standards.  Funds for the repairs/renovations are released in draws to ensure the work is completed as intended as well as meeting all zoning, health and building codes.

Of course, the home must also meet eligibility guidelines.  The home: must be one to four units; must be at least one year old; and must meet neighborhood zoning requirements. The program allows for major rehabilitation on homes that have been razed provided that the foundation still exists.

But what if you’ve decided to renovate your home rather than move?  The FHA 203k allows for home owners to make renovations, updates, and sometimes additions.  The possibilities seem endless (as long as your vision stays within the loan limits).   Besides painting and updating kitchen and bathrooms, you could possibly even expand your existing house with an addition.  The FHA 203k even allows for many “green” upgrades to make your home more efficient.

FHA guidelines have been revised in recent years, and may undergo further revisions.  It is important for home buyers and others who are interested in the FHA 203k to consult with an approved FHA lender for borrower and home qualifying guidelines, loan limits and 203k acceptable improvements.  Additional information (including a list of lenders) can be found on the HUD website (HUD.gov).

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2008/09/19/fha-203k-renovation-loans-are-still-available/

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By Dan Krell

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © Dan Krell.

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Pricing your home to sell 2013

by Dan Krell
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DanKrell.com
© 2013

home for saleIt has been a while since home sellers have felt optimism about the housing market. Although many would be home sellers continue to wait before jumping into the market; a combination of inventory shortages and reports of appreciating home prices are making some home sellers push the limits of home pricing.

Consideration for an appropriate list price is vital in any market. However, regardless of current market conditions, setting the right list price today could prove challenging. If your home sells quickly, you might feel as if you priced the home too low; while setting the price to high could make your home languish in an otherwise active real estate market.

Since the home seller decides on the list price, you might be tempted to use the most recent neighborhood sale or list price as a guide for your home sale. However, without deeply examining these comparables, this methodology may result in over or under pricing your home.

As public information is widely available on the internet, you might find yourself searching the ‘net for recent neighborhood sales to assist you in making a decision on a list/sale price. However, public records usually post dates of deed transfers as recorded in the courthouse, which are usually after the actual closing (sometimes several months or more).  Additionally, public record home descriptions can sometimes contain incorrect or outdated data on home interiors and living area. Relying solely on data found on the internet could make you miss out on more recent and significant sale comps –again possibly leading you to under/over price your home.

For relevant comparables, ask your real estate agent to prepare a market analysis based on comps found in the local MLS (which contains real-time data). Although the market analysis is not an appraisal, its purpose is to assist home buyers and sellers in deciding on a list/sale price. An experienced agent preparing a market analysis will search for comparables that are most similar to your home by considering home factors such as: location, type, style, size, age, condition, interior amenities, exterior amenities, room count, basement, updates, etc.

Additionally, since the comparables used in the market analysis are as analogous to your home as possible, finding recent comps within your neighborhood are ideal not only because of the proximity to your home, but also because homes within the same subdivisions usually have many similarities (including age, style, lot size, upgrades, additions, as well as functional obsolescence).

Even though many home sellers are optimistic about home prices, you could still encounter appraisal issues. Appraisals are opinions of value by an independent party typically requested by lenders to verify the home’s market value in underwriting a home buyer’s mortgage application. And although appraisers use a standard methodology to derive a market value, some appraisers may exercise caution and seek the conservative value in ensuring the appraisal meets the loan guidelines. Issues can also arise when the assigned appraiser is unfamiliar with your neighborhood and surrounding area.

Pricing a home to sell has been described as a skill by some and an art form by others. Deciding on an appropriate list price not only establishes buyers’ expectations for an offer, it can also set the tone for a smooth sale or a bumpy protracted ride in the marketplace.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of March 11, 2013. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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Is recent housing bubble news cause for alarm

by Dan Krell

DanKrell.com
© 2013

real estate bubbleIf I said that we could experience another housing bubble, you might be concerned for my mental health.  But a couple of years ago I wrote about an impending housing shortage, which could spark another bubble similar to what occurred during 2004-2005.  The market-conditions similarities between 2004 and today are foreboding, if not intriguing. (Dan Krell © 2013)

There hasn’t been talk of a housing shortage since 2004; but looking at Montgomery County MD as an example, you might begin to see similarities between the housing bubble of 2005-2006 and today’s real estate market.

Monthly peek single family inventory in Montgomery County did not exceed 2,000 total active units in 2004; while the absorption rate was reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (GCAAR.com) to be about 80% during the winter of 2004.  During the following year, the winter active inventory greatly increased and the absorption rates dropped to about 40%.  The result was a housing market that reached critical mass, and a one year appreciation rate of about 18% for Montgomery County single family homes; which played a key role in the rampant real estate speculation in 2005-2006.

Active housing inventory has been declining since 2010; the greatest decrease occurring during 2012.  According to the monthly home sale statistics posted on the GCAAR website (GCAAR.com), there were 1813 active single family inventory units for sale in Montgomery County during January 2012.  And although active single family units peaked for the year during the spring of 2012, active inventory dwindled to a low of 1198 active units for sale during January 2013 – a year over year decrease of about 40%. Additionally, the absorption rate of listed homes for sale is rapidly approaching 60%

Add the home price facet – on March 5th, CoreLogic (corelogic.com) reported that national home prices increased 9.7% during January 2013, as compared to January 2012.  This was reported to be the greatest year of year home price increase since 2006.

An additional and telling similarity between the pre-bubble years and present is the number of real estate investors jumping in to cash in on distressed properties.  Of course at the height of the real estate bubble of 2004-2006, real estate investing was transformed from the traditional “rehab and flip” to no rehab and flipping properties as quickly as possible.   A great number of homes sold today are to investors, either to rehab or to rent.

In 2004, like today, we were about three years post recession; albeit the recession of 2001 was not as protracted as the “Great Recession.”  At that time, like today, the Federal Reserve funds rate was historically low.

Although an “easy money” monetary policy is another similarity between the periods, a major difference is the availability of mortgage money.  Getting a mortgage is much more difficult today than it was in 2004-2005.  Buying a home without a down payment as well as qualifying for a mortgage without documenting income could have been a factor of the wide spread real estate speculation of 2005-2006.  Today, as a result of the bursting of the 2005-2006 housing bubble, underwriting qualifications are more demanding as are down payment requirements.

The housing bubble phenomenon is not a new or a recent experience; housing bubbles have occurred in the past and most likely will occur in the future.  When they occur, housing bubbles seem to coincide with a recessionary cycle.  And just like recessions, housing bubbles vary in duration and severity.  Sure, another housing bubble may be looming; but the next bubble may be confined to specific regions of the country, and possibly some local neighborhoods.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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