A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!
Although few home owners are venturing to list their homes, those who do may be seeking a premium price; most likely due to the optimism permeating the air. Furthermore some are expecting the prize of getting multiple offers with escalation clauses. Owners of homes that do not sell within the first week of listing are anxiously wondering, “Why hasn’t my house sold yet?”
The flip side is that although home buyers are plentiful (compared to the current home inventory), there still seems to be many home buyers who seek to buy a home at a 5%+ discount. Unlike the “bargain hunter,” many of these home buyers are more concerned with future home resale (which may be indicative of a lack of confidence in the future housing market).
Pressure on home buyers and sellers is likely originating from reports of bubble activity pockets that seems to be popping up, and recent home price indices that indicate increasing national average home prices. Regardless, there appears to be a lack of symmetry among home sales as well as a lack of consistency among home buyers and sellers.
So if you’re planning a home sale or purchase, what are you to make of this? You should understand that national home price indices are comprised of multiple regions, and much of the national home price increase is due to regions that had the highest home price declines over the last six years, as well as a few pockets of very hot activity (unlike the home price climb during 2004-2006, which was mostly due to high confidence in the housing market, easy credit, and a much different economy). Likewise, the Metro DC region is microcosm of the national picture, such that it is comprised of a number of counties that realized double digit home price decreases, as well as a few pockets of hot activity.
To add some perspective to local market trends, the average days-on-market of a home in Montgomery County is roughly 60 days (depending on the source). Additionally, Montgomery County single family home data compiled by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated that median and average single family home price decreased year over year for the last three consecutive months. And while the number of homes listed continues to decline, the number of pending home sales (homes under contract) has also declined in March year over year, as well as year to date.
Getting into the market requires solid data, a strategy, and an open mind. If you’re selling: consult with your agent about recent neighborhood prices; and stay informed of all activity, as it could be your cue to decisions made on the sale. If you’re buying: in addition to discussing comp data, you should consult with your agent about a strategy to deal with competition from other home buyers.
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.
Information contained therein could determine whether or not you qualify for a mortgage, and possibly the interest rate you are offered. Typically, lenders use credit reports to determine how you generally manage your debts and financial obligations. Besides being used by mortgage lenders; some banks may review your credit report when you apply for a checking account, and even some insurance companies may use your credit report for underwriting purposes.
Your credit report may say more about you than you might know. The report is considered to be a “snapshot” of your financial management ability. The major credit bureaus, Equifax (equifax.com), Experian (experian.com), and Trans Union (transunion.com), act as information repositories for collected information, and make it available to those who need it. The credit bureaus are informed of your activities by your creditors as well as collecting information from public records; the collected information may include details about your identity, existing credit, public records, and recent inquiries.
Identity information may list your name and aliases, address, Social Security number, date of birth, and possibly employment information. Existing credit information lists accounts that are granted to you, and may include: credit cards, mortgages, student loans, and car loan accounts, payment history, and current balance. Public records may reveal liens, judgments, bankruptcies, and open collections.
Anyone with a legitimate need for your credit report can obtain it. Besides banks, lenders, and those who extend credit, others who may be able to view your credit report include (but not limited to) employers, landlords, and child support enforcement. These inquires are listed in the report.
Your credit score is also included in your credit report. Because each of the three credit bureaus use their own algorithms to determine your score based on the bureaus’ information, the three scores may vary somewhat. Many credit decisions are initially determined on credit scores, so it’s important to ensure that the reports are accurate so as to reflect in your credit scores.
Factors that may negatively impact your credit scores include (but not limited to): late payments, accounts referred to collection, and/or reported bankruptcy; having high account balances relative to credit limits; applying for many accounts in a short period of time; and having an excessive number of credit accounts.
With such importance placed on credit reports, it’s important to ensure your reports contain accurate information about you and your credit history. Unfortunately, inaccurate data may find its way into your report through poor reporting, misidentification, and even non-reporting of (positive) information. Additionally, identity theft has been a law enforcement issue for years; and is increasingly considered a major public threat.
You can dispute erroneous data with the reporting company, and/or the credit bureau. If you dispute to the credit bureau, the bureau will undergo an investigation. To assist the investigation, the bureau may require your identifying information, an explanation why the reported information is incorrect, and supporting documentation (such as receipts, police reports, and/or fraud affidavits).
Your credit report is considered to be a “snapshot” of your life and your ability to manage credit. Financial experts recommend that you request your report from each bureau annually to ensure the information is accurate. For more information on credit reports and scores, refer to the Federal Reserve (federalreserve.gov/creditreports), the FTC (ftc.gov), and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (consumerfinance.gov).
Self defeating attitudes can interfere with your negotiating tactics; so get out of the way and negotiate to win.
What seems like many years ago, I read a book titled “Get Out of Your Own Way: Overcoming Self-Defeating Behavior” by Mark Goulston and Philip Goldberg. If you don’t get the gist of the book by its title, the book describes how people can become obstacles to their own success. And although the book was about personal growth, the premise can apply to self defeating attitudes brought forward during negotiating a real estate transaction.
Obviously, the purpose to entering into a real estate transaction is to either buy or sell a home. However, buyers and/or sellers can sometimes become obstacles in their own path to success; they may lose sight of the bigger picture and can make poor decisions – especially in negotiating price, repairs, and other issues that may pop up throughout the process. For example, a home buyer who seeks a low priced bargain may become frustrated wondering why he is constantly outbid; while the home seller who insists on an unsupported high price might become disappointed when there are no offers.
It is common knowledge that “the first rule” of negotiation is to not be emotional. However, many decisions about buying and selling a home are often based on emotion; additionally, expectation and anticipation often influence home buyers and sellers. If emotions take over, the larger goal is often lost to a narrow focus on seemingly insignificant and petty matters.
Get out of your way by sticking to the facts. Armed with data and facts, there is less conjecture and you are more likely to be persuasive in your arguments. Additionally, concentrating on facts can also help you stay focused on the larger picture of buying or selling your home. For example, when pricing or making offers – use recent neighborhood comps and look for data driven market sales trends (rather than relying on what you hear on the news). Looking at all the facts can also help negotiate other items, such as home inspection repairs; having contractor estimates may assist in resolving an impasse.
Sometimes buyers and sellers go into a transaction with a “win-lose” attitude, where they expect that their position is always correct. Being “aggressive” towards your counterparts may seem the best way to get what you want; however, fighting for an uncompromising position may lead to all parties becoming inflexible and a transaction that does not close. In fact, being forceful and antagonistic about your offer may make others become ill tempered and even possibly hostile to further negotiation.
One of the definitive texts on warfare, “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu, has also been a guiding resource for top negotiators. “The Art of War” doesn’t talk about going to the enemy and forcing them “to eat steel.” Rather, it is a thoughtful treatise on dealing with people. The upshot is that the best way to “win” is to prevent war through positioning, data, and understanding of the counterpart. In other words, negotiating to get your way may require positioning of the facts and being persuasive (rather than approaching the transaction with a take it or leave it attitude).
Negotiating tactics are an often misunderstood part of the real estate process. Hire a savvy real estate agent to assist you in collecting data and persuasively presenting your position. For a successful transaction – get out of your way!
Why your real estate agent’s experience is more important than you think:
The National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) publishes an annual profile of home buyers and sellers that includes data and descriptions about how consumers go about choosing a real estate agent. There are obviously many factors that are involved in the choice, but it is striking that an agent’s experience is not a major reason for their hire; it seems as if most buyers and sellers hire an agent who was referred by someone the consumer knew, and that many buyers and sellers did not talk to more than one agent.
Even though experience is not heavily weighted in agent choice, it may be one intangible that should be considered when you choose your real estate agent. A recent research study by Bennie Waller and Ali Jubran (“The Impact of Agent Experience on the Real Estate Transaction.” Journal of Housing Research 21, no. 1 (2012): 67-82) highlights the intuitive notion that an experienced agent can yield a better result than an inexperienced agent.
They concluded that hiring a “veteran” agent will have a positive effect on your home sale. The data indicates that “rookie” agents, those who have had their real estate license two years or less, sell homes for less, take longer to sell homes, and are less efficient during the process. Data collected from their sample indicated that rookie agents sold homes for about 10% less than experienced agents, which according to their sample data yielded an average net difference of $18,000 (the average list price was $201,297). Homes listed by “veteran” agents sell about 32% faster than inexperienced agents. And, experienced agents are more likely to expedite the transaction to completion.
One possible explanation provided by the researchers is that the experienced agents are more likely to list higher quality property that typically sells faster and for more money. Although they concede that they cannot substantiate this rationalization by this study, they suggest that veteran agents are more successful in obtaining luxury real estate and new home listings.
A more likely reason for differences between rookie and veteran agents is the mindset brought forward to the business of real estate. The investigators discuss how those who consider selling real estate their career are more successful and have better outcomes for their clients than those who do not. They also suggest that those who consider themselves as “part-time” agents are less likely to achieve as high of a result in their transaction as the full time counterpart; they contend that successful veteran agents are dedicated and devoted to their career.
Other possible reasons for their conclusions (but not discussed in the study) are that veteran real estate agents are more acquainted with the nuances of the housing market and have an increased ability to engage the parties in the transaction. Full time agents are invested in being aware of listing and sale activity in their respective markets, and network with other agents to compare notes. Additionally, experienced agents may have developed the ability to easily connect with home buyers and sellers; as well as have greater capacity to understand the specific needs of buyers and sellers – thus facilitating a smoother and successful transaction.
The business of real estate is increasingly complex and difficult. Rapidly changing demands on home buyers and sellers can be challenging and frustrating for those in the market. Your agent’s experience, both general and specialized, could make the difference in your success.
Move-up home buyers missing from housing recovery; when will move-up home buyers return to the housing market?
I recently came across an interesting article about “move-up” home buyers online titled, “Move-up Buyer Provides The Base For A Recovering Housing Market.” The piece, published by the Chicago Tribune, is not unlike the many articles you might find today about the missing move-up buyer in the housing recovery. However, this article is different – it was published August 17, 1985 (article can be found here: articles.chicagotribune.com/1985-08-17/news/8502240441_1_interest-rates-trade-up-market-home-resale-market).
The striking similarities between the current housing recovery and a real estate market that was recovering from one of the deepest modern recessions up to that time (during the early 1980’s), includes home buyer behavior and economic concerns. And of course, the affected move-up buyer sector and the dearth of inventory appear to be familiar.
Home buyer behavior doesn’t have seemed to have changed much as many would-be home buyers are trying to time their purchase with the market bottom. At that time, like today, interest rate pressures are helped home buyers decide to jump into the market; additionally, then like today a significant number of buyers were first time home buyers. Downward pressure on mortgage interest rates, combined with the fear of rising rates affected home buyers to get off of the fence. However, peek mortgage interest rates averaged about 15% in the early 1980’s.
Another similarity between both periods is the missing move-up market. The typical move-up home buyer is sometimes described as a home owner who decides they need more space, which results in the sale of their smaller home and the purchase of a larger home. Then like today, the move- up home buyer was the missing piece to the housing recovery; the move-up home buyer provides much of the housing inventory that first time home buyers seek. However, it seems as if a “psychological barrier” (as described by the Chicago Tribune piece) holds back many move-up buyers today as it did in 1985. During the current housing recovery, many potential move-up buyers have remained in their homes.
Like other housing recoveries, one of the main issues holding back the move-up buyer is housing appreciation. During an early recovery, home owners may have a difficult time rationalizing buying a larger more expensive home when the new home could depreciate the first year of ownership, let alone the thought of a perceived loss of equity in their current home.
As home prices stabilize it would be reasonable to think that there will be an increased presence of the move-up home buyer. A good example of this was in the housing recovery that took place during 2003-2004. At that time, low mortgage interest rates helped first time home buyers back to the marketplace, and the move-up buyer sector took off relatively quickly when rapid home appreciation was realized. Of course rapid home appreciation was a function of “easy money” that generated real estate speculation that produced the “go-go market” of 2005-2006, the housing bubble, and the subsequent financial/housing crises.
The similarities of a post recession housing recovery might indicate there is currently progress. However, the move-up home buyer sector may be one of the final pieces to the recovery puzzle; and until the move-up home buyer presence is felt in the marketplace, we may yet to endure a few more years of “recovery.”
A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!
A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!
