Can we really see negative mortgage rates?

Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year.

Can you believe that 30-year fixed rate conventional mortgage rates have been below 5% for about five years? Rates have essentially been hovering around 4% (plus/minus) for the last three years. To put it in perspective, you’d probably have to go back to the 1940’s to get a lower rate. To contrast, rates from 1979 through the 1980’s were in double digits; and according to Freddie Mac’s Monthly Average Commitment Rate And Points On 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Since 1971 (freddiemac.com), the average mortgage commitment rate reached a peak of 18.45% during October of 1981.

With such low rates, it’s hard to imagine signing up for a mortgage at 18%, or 10%, or even 7% interest. Keep in mind that the consensus is that the average mortgage rate over the last forty years has been about 8.75%. And as economists have anticipated rising rates since 2011, rates have actually decreased.

Many thought that Fed would finally begin to raise the federal funds rate towards the end of this year. However, an interesting thing happened last week from probably the most anticipated Fed meeting ever. On September 17^th, the Fed’s Open Market Committee issued a statement on the economy and monetary policy, and left the federal funds rate unchanged at a target rate of 0% to 1/4%. Although mortgage rates are not directly influenced by the federal funds rate, they are indirectly affected because the federal funds rate is the rate in which banks borrow money.

Initially it appears to be good news from the Fed’s September 17^th press release, housing was described as improving, and it is felt that mortgage rates will likely to remain relatively low for the short term. However, in a press conference following the Fed statement, Fed Chair Janet Yellen referred to housing as “depressed.” Depressed is certainly not the description that anyone was expecting of a housing market that has seen slow improvement. Yet, it’s not the first time Yellen expressed concern for housing; she raised concerns about a housing market slowdown last year.

Should we also be concerned when others are optimistic? Maybe Yellen sees something that we do not. An August 16^th 2013 Washington Post piece by Neil Irwin and Ylan Q. Mui details Yellen’s background and how she predicted the housing crisis and forecasted the following financial crisis (Janet Yellen called the housing bust and has been mostly right on jobs. Does she have what it takes to lead the Fed?). It’s not that Yellen is clairvoyant, as far as anyone knows, but rather her ability to connect the correct data points. In last week’s press conference she cited that housing was basically not improving in step with other economic indicators, such as employment.

So when will interest rates go up? Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year. And in a couple of European counties, such as Spain, you could get a negative interest mortgage! CNN-Money reported on European negative interest rates, quoting Luca Bertalot (secretary general of the European Mortgage Federation) to say “We are in uncharted waters.” And described Spain’s Bankinter’s negative interest rate dilemma, saying that “they could not pay interest to borrowers, but instead reduced the principal for some customers (The crazy world of negative rates: Banks pay your mortgage for you?; money.cnn.com, April 22, 2015).”

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

August 21, 2015September 1, 2019

Homeowners do better than renters

Many years ago, buying your first home used to be a rite of passage that usually coincided with starting a family. Your first home was not just a place to live; but was considered an investment that was expected to grow and provide a “nest egg” for your later years.

Several generations later, a lot has changed. We view investments differently, and have become amateur number crunchers trying to get the most of our money. But what was once considered a sound long term investment has now been deemed as poor judgment.

Of course to real estate investors, housing is a commodity; they take risks to reap rewards. Short term real estate investors (“flippers”) are often viewed as opportunists, buying homes at a discount and selling at retail value. The flipper’s goal is to have a quick turnaround between the time of acquisition and resale (flip), avoiding as much carrying cost as possible. The risk for the flipper is very high, especially in fickle markets; but the payoff can be very rewarding. It is not unusual for a flipper to lose money on a project because of delays, unexpected costs, and/or poor timing.

Long term real estate investors acquire homes to be used as rental properties, banking on the properties’ appreciation when it comes time to sell. Although the financial reward for this investor is long term, the risk is considered to be leveraged over time as well. However, unexpected costs and loss of rent can make such an investor rethink their plan and cut their losses.

For the rest of us, however; housing may not be such a great investment after all, according to many financial pundits. One such pundit, Morgan Housel (of Motley Fool fame), wrote about his meeting with Robert Shiller (of Case-Shiller fame) to give some telling insight about home values (Why your home is not a good investment; usatoday.com; May 10, 2014). Shiller told Housel that the housing market is “a provider of housing services” and “not a good provider of capital gains.”

According to Shiller, home prices from 1890 to 1990 (adjusted for real inflation) are “virtually unchanged.” Housel further added that home prices between 1890 and 2012, adjusted for real inflation, “went nowhere;” and decreased 10% from 1890 to 1980, when adjusted for real inflation. Shiller even suggested that “real” home prices could decrease over the next 30 years, due to a number of factors including obsolescence and advances in construction techniques.

With all the stats and figures, are those who touted the investment value of long term home ownership – wrong? Not necessarily. The consensus is that home ownership offers stability as well as many other benefits including: a place to live, a place to raise a family, and belonging to a community. These intangibles may be responsible for the research conclusions by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, that indicated there is an association between home ownership and growing wealth; where home owners fared better than renters (Herbert, McCue, and Sanchez-Moyano; Is Homeownership Still an Effective Means of Building Wealth for Low-income and Minority Households? Was it Ever? Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University, September 2013).

Is buying a home a bad investment? Housel pointed out that even Robert Shiller owns a home, and (at the time of the interview) indicated he would buy a home if he were in the market.

by Dan Krell
Copyright © 2015

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

August 7, 2015July 7, 2019

Radon is everywhere – not just in your home

A recent bill introduced in the County Council local to me reminded me of a column I wrote almost ten years ago about radon. In line with some other “consumer oriented” bills adding burdens on the home seller, Montgomery County Council Bill 31-15 has home sellers conducting radon tests and providing the results along with estimates to reduce actionable levels before entering into a sales contract.

According to the Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection (montgomerycountymd.gov/dep): “Radon is an invisible, radioactive gas created during the natural breakdown of uranium in rocks and soils. It is found in nearly all soils. Radon typically moves up through the ground and into homes and buildings through cracks and other holes in the foundation, although there are other radon sources.” Radon is naturally occurring and everywhere; however, it becomes problematic when the gas builds up in enclosed areas. If your Montgomery County home was built after 1995, chances are that you already have a passive radon mitigation system built in, as required by code. However, a passive system may not be enough, and older active systems may need additional venting as radon concentrations may change over time. The only way to know if there is a radon problem in your home is to test for it.

In January 2005, then Surgeon General Richard Carmona issued a warning on radon (surgeongeneral.gov/news/2005), saying: “Indoor radon gas is the second-leading cause of lung cancer in the United States and breathing it over prolonged periods can present a significant health risk to families all over the country. It’s important to know that this threat is completely preventable. Radon can be detected with a simple test and fixed through well-established venting techniques.“

According to the Maryland Department of the Environment’s “Radon Gas” fact sheet (mde.maryland.gov), home owners in all counties and Baltimore City have reported high levels of radon in their home. Some have reported test results that indicated levels of 200 picocuries per liter, which is 50 times the EPA action level. The risk of lung cancer spending a lifetime in a home where the radon level is 10 picocuries/liter is similar to smoking a pack of cigarettes per day.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency offers a “Home Buyer’s and Seller’s Guide to Radon” (epa.gov/radon/pubs/hmbyguid.html). Testing is relatively easy. There are two types of tests: Passive testing devices are not powered and are sent to a lab for analysis after exposure (these devices can be purchased at most hardware stores); Active testing devices are powered and continuously measure and record the amount of radon decay in the air (these devices can detect test interference). The EPA recommends taking action when existing radon levels are at 4 picocuries per liter or higher; however, exiting levels between 2 to 4 picocuries per liter may still pose a risk.

Although most warnings we hear about radon refers to our homes, actionable levels of radon can exist in any building – public or private. According to the EPA, a nationwide survey of radon levels in schools revealed that 1 in 5 has at least one schoolroom in use with radon above the action level of 4 picocuries per liter (epa.gov/radon/pubs/schoolrn.html). Former National PTA President Kathryn Whitfill was quoted to say, “EPA’s national survey of schools produced some alarming results about concentrations in our children’s classrooms. Public awareness must be raised about the hazards of radon…All schools must be tested to determine if there is a problem, and schools must inform parents of the results. We cannot ignore this problem.”

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2015

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

June 4, 2015November 23, 2021

Survey may indicate buyers need attentive agents

A recent MarketWatch report indicated that the top four reasons why millennials are not buying homes include: lack of down payment; student loan debt; credit card debt; and not knowing where to start. The reasons per se may not surprise you; however, regional differences are interesting.

Daniel Goldstein’s May 30^th report (Millennials in Texas and in California reject home ownership for vastly different reasons; marketwatch.com) tries to tie together a recent Carrington Mortgage survey and the lack of homeownership participation among millennials. Since millennials are supposed to be the heir apparent to the U.S. economy; he ponders about why there is only a 38% homeownership rate (according to CoreLogic) among millennials when mortgage interest rates are at record lows. The figure pales in comparison to the homeownership rate of 52% of the same age group in 1980 – at a time of double digit interest rates!

Millennials in the western region of the U.S. seem to be mostly concerned about down payment. This may be due to the region including many high cost metro areas. Additionally, the western region has seen much of the home price growth and hot markets we hear about in the media.

Midwestern region millennials are mostly concerned about student loan debt, which has a direct impact on their debt-to-income ratio. The midwestern region has some of the lowest cost of living areas, which influences wages and ability to qualify for a mortgage.

The top concern for millennials in the northeast is credit card debt. And while having credit card debt is not necessarily a bad thing (as long as credit is not maxed out and payments are timely); many do not understand the general concepts of credit reports, and the relation between credit scores and credit card debt.

Whereas most of the country seems to be concerned about wages, savings, and debt; southern millennials (which includes Maryland, DC, and Virginia) are reported to be generally stumped about the home buying process.

What millennials reported in the survey is what generally daunts first time home buyers – the overwhelming process of buying a home. Although not considered rocket science, buying your first home can be intimidating. And it’s not just because it is one of the most expensive purchases of a lifetime; but also because the process is multifaceted with many possible pitfalls. Recent industry trends have also made the process less personal, leaving many home buyers to “figure it out” on their own.

Millennials’ concern about the home buying process may not necessarily be economics as it is about the industry itself. It may be a telling sign that “continuity of care” in the real estate industry is lacking, and should have many professionals revisit the client centered business model.

Although recent industry trends favor real estate agent teams as a means to high volume home sales; buyers who work with a team may not necessarily be overly satisfied with communication and support. Millennials and other first time home buyers may be seeking seasoned real estate agents and loan officers who are able to listen to their needs and concerns, while being able to educate and provide guidance. Much like having the ability to talk to a physician directly, rather than communicating through messaging services and technicians; having a single Realtor® who can promptly answer phone calls and emails, may greatly increase satisfaction and quality of service.

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

March 26, 2015

Home buyer strategy to cope with a low inventory market

As the weather warms, many home buyers are venturing out making themselves known; only to be greeted with low inventories and higher list prices. The National Association of Realtors® March 23^rd press release indicated that nationwide low housing inventory is pushing home prices to grow rapidly; average home prices across the country increased 7.5% during February compared to the same period last year (realtor.org).

Much like the “tire kicker;” a typical home buyer visits selected open houses and lurks online to see what’s out there before talking to a lender and/or a real estate agent. While desiring to be low-key and pretending to be demure may be the strategy of choice; acting this way during a low inventory market could lead you to miss out on the home of your dreams.

If you’re part of this year’s home buyer cohort, prepare for a low inventory market by talking with a mortgage lender and a real estate agent before you begin your search. Working with an experienced agent and lender may increase your chances of not only finding a home, but getting your offer accepted.

Even though home buyers are instructed to get qualified for a mortgage before they begin looking for a home, it is often left until just prior to writing their first offer. A lender approval not only provides you the certainty of knowing what you can afford; it tells the home seller you are capable of buying their home.

Although getting a mortgage qualification letter today is more involved than it was in bygone years, it is for the better. To comply with new rules and regulations, lenders today require a formal application before they will provide you an approval letter that can accompany your offer to purchase. You will need to provide documents indicating your income and assets to determine how much you can afford as well as verify the funds for down payment and closing costs. The application not only helps you through the home buying process, it will make your mortgage process more streamlined too.

Although hiring a buyer agent is not always a consideration during the home search, your choice of agent could affect the outcome of your purchase. Choose carefully – research has indicated that real estate agents are not all alike; veteran agents positively affect your transaction and are more efficient compared to rookies. Experienced agents offer intangible services such as understanding the nuances of the housing market, as well as having an increased ability to engage the parties in the transaction. Additionally, it was found that home buyers who employ full-time agents have better outcomes than those who hire part-time agents.

Rather than waiting to choose your agent until you’re ready to make an offer on a home, meeting and interviewing several agents could help you determine their experience and commitment. Although most buyers think of savvy agents as being expert negotiators; in a low inventory market it also pays to have an agent who thinks outside the box to seek home sale opportunities that are not typically advertised in the MLS.

A low inventory housing market presents the home buyer with a number of issues. Working with an experienced agent and mortgage lender can help you through the ups and downs of the process as well as reframing your expectations to fit the reality of market.

Some speculate that it is possible for the Fed to set negative rates to stave off deflation; something that happened in Europe earlier this year.

Google+ Copyright © Dan Krell

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell