Next Market Downturn

The next market downturn (infographic from keepingcurrentmatters.com)

The current US economy just hit a milestone by becoming the longest stretch of economic growth in our Nation’s modern history.  The expansion is now in the 121st month.  The previous expansion record was 120 months, and occurred between March 1991 and March 2001. Most attribute the dot-com bubble as the precipitating event that ended that period of expansion.  Many have been anticipating the end of the current expansion for several years.  And they will eventually be correct when this period of economic growth inevitably ends in a downturn, recession, or correction. To prepare, experts suggest to start saving for the next market downturn.

Earlier this year, I wrote about housing market mini-cycles are different from a full-blown recession.  Then (and now), housing indicators are mostly positive.  Although the next next market downturn is unlikely to be caused by another housing crisis, it doesn’t mean that the housing market won’t be affected by other economic factors. 

Whatever triggers the next recession will undoubtedly become an economic contagion that will spread across many industries, including housing.  The chain of events are generally characterized as: consumer sentiment drops which causes people to spend less money which causes businesses to slow which results in unemployment.  Home owners who lose their jobs may have difficulty in repaying their mortgages, and are at risk of default or losing their homes. 

Lessons for the next market downturn

Economic and financial lessons are learned with each recession.  The dot-com bubble recession in 2001 made many rethink the policy of raising interest rates when markets are signaling trouble.  Many are still studying the Great Recession, but one of the take-aways is that job creation is key in economic growth and prosperity. 

How will the next market downturn affect housing? The housing market typically responds to a recession through home price reductions.  A NAR Economist’s Outlook from October 23, 2018 (How Do Housing Market Conditions Compare in 2004 and 2018?; nar.realtor) suggests that home prices will likely fall but not as sharply as we experienced in 2008.  This is mostly due to home sale inventory and home prices.  The housing market is much different than it was prior to the last recession.  According to the latest NAR press release on existing home sales (nar.realtor), the median existing home sale price during May increased 4.8 percent.  This is the 87th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.  Additionally, home sale inventory remains at historic lows.

Start saving

A recent press release from the JPMorgan Chase Institute indicates that the conventional wisdom about mortgage default may be incorrect (jpmorganchase.com).  The institute’s study was published in report “Trading Equity for Liquidity: Bank Data on the Relationship between Liquidity and Mortgage Default.”  A major conclusion is that having three months of housing costs in reserve can save your home in the event of recession and job loss.  This is counter to the conventional wisdom of the post-recession era policies of home buyers having “skin in the game” by making larger down payments.  Having home equity is also not a guarantee of making mortgage payments.  Home equity is relative to the housing market and home prices.  The study concluded that “liquidity is a more useful predictor of mortgage default than home equity, income level, and payment burden—especially for borrowers with limited liquidity at closing.” 

Even though the Great Recession officially ended ten years ago, the memories are still fresh.  There will be eventually a recession or market correction. And the main concern for most home owners is how to prepare.  Unfortunately, we can’t predict the exact timing and severity of a recession.  However, most experts suggest saving and having several months of reserves in case of job loss.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/07/12/next-market-downturn

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

 

Downsizing myths debunked

Downsizing
Rethinking downsizing due to generational trends (infographic from nar.realtor).

Downsizing was once thought of as a rite of passage for empty-nesters and retirees.  It was considered the next stage of homeownership after enjoying the big house and puttering in the yard.  But everything you thought you knew about downsizing is probably stereotyped and incorrect. Housing and generational trends has everyone rethinking their downsizing plans.

Results of a recent survey that was conducted on behalf of Del Webb, a developer and builder of active adult communities, revealed that a majority of 50 to 60-years-olds are not planning to downsize (pultegroup.com).  A majority of the survey’s respondents who are planning a future move indicated that they don’t intend to move into a smaller home. 

Many older adults are actually are looking for a larger house! In fact, 71 percent who plan a future move want a single-family home, and 63 percent desire a home with three or more bedrooms.  These results may be due in part to multi-generational and cohabitation housing trends.  Many of the 50-year old’s who took part in the survey indicated they planned to buy a home that can also house their parents.

Jay Mason, vice president of market intelligence for PulteGroup, the nation’s third largest homebuilder and owner of the Del Webb brand, stated in the press release, “Rather than staying put, today’s 50- and 60-year olds are thinking ahead to their next big move.  While millennials seem to make the headlines, there are over 140 million Generation X and baby boomers in the United States, many with the means, confidence and desire to stay active in the housing market.”

Mason described a majority of GenXer and baby-boomer respondents as “looking for a different quality of life when considering their next move.”  Of those planning a move, 87 percent are leaning towards a suburban or rural area. More specifically, 60 percent described their next home as a “quiet, tranquil place where they can slow down and get some peace.”

Downsizing is a housing trend that is building momentum in younger generations as well.  Many home owners who thought of having a large home and yard are rethinking their lifestyles.  By reducing the time and costs of maintaining a large home and yard, they are able enhance their daily lives.

A major consideration is that downsizing doesn’t always reduce housing costs.  It is possible that the newer condo (or house) you’re considering to purchase may actually cost more than the sale price of your current home.  Besides the actual cost of the home, there are also associated costs of homeownership.  For example, the property tax of your new home could be more than what you’re currently paying.  Additionally, it is likely that your new home may have the additional cost of an HOA or condo fees.

Downsizing also doesn’t mean that you have to buy your next home.  A Realtor Magazine news article (More Older Home Owners Choose to Rent; magazine.realtor; January 12, 2016) cites US Census data that indicates half of the home owners aged 55-64 are either staying in their current homes, or deciding to rent instead of purchasing another one.

Are you thinking of downsizing?  Downsizing requires planning, not just about where to live but also considering the disposition of your current home.  To help you decide if downsizing is in your future, consult with your CPA and/or financial planner to help you understand the costs of downsizing.  To understand the current housing market and sale prices in your neighborhood, consult a local Realtor.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/24/downsizing-myths-debunked/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Summer home safeguards

summer home safeguards
Summer home safeguards (infographic from crime prevention pamphlet montgomerycountymd.gov/POL)

Did you know that the AAA estimates that there will be about 100 million Americans who will take a family vacation this year (aaa.com)?  If you’re one of those millions planning a trip this summer, you’re likely stressing over your plans.  Some of that stress is certainly vacation planning, but some may be about leaving your home vacant for several or more days.  Besides planning your vacation, you should also plan to “summerize” your home by taking some summer home safeguards.

Just like winterizing a vacant home before winter, summerizing is safeguarding your home while your away on vacation.  And just like winterizing a home, summerizing is implementing a preventative plan to secure your home and possibly save a few dollars. Here are a few common knowledge ideas for summer home safeguards.

To save a few dollars, many homeowners adjust the HVAC thermostat while vacationing.  Some even turn off the HVAC system.  However, if you have a basement or cellar, consider adjusting the thermostat to a reasonable temperature (and/or use a dehumidifier) to prevent mold growth in a dark and potentially humid area of the home.

If your home will be vacant for an extended period, consider unplugging “zombie” appliances.  Zombie appliances are appliances that consume electricity even when they are not in use.  Many small appliances and internet connected appliances (such as your TV and other entertainment devices) are included in this category. 

One of the biggest concerns while away is the potential of returning to a waterlogged home.  A faulty valve or supply line can leak at any time.  If you’re away, you obviously can’t immediately respond to this scenario.  Although some home owners turn off the water at the main valve, this can interfere with a sprinkler system.  Most shut off specific valves to appliances and fixtures.  Some vacationing home owners also shut off outside water hose bibs to prevent others from using water at their expense.

Securing your home can deter burglars and pests.  Although it’s tempting to brag to your friends about your vacation, refrain from posting about your plans on social media.  Store your valuables in a safe, inconspicuous place.  If you don’t have a security system, consider installing a camera and lighting system that can alert you of unexpected activity.  An exterior camera and lighting system can be a major deterrent.  However, interior cameras can also alert you of a determined intruder so you can take appropriate action. 

To deter mice and other rodents from ransacking your home while you’re away, ensure that the home’s doors and windows are shut and secure.  Also, make sure the exterior dryer vent cover is closed.  Find and seal any holes where rodents can gain access your home. 

You may also want to employ some common some summer home safeguards strategies that make it appear as if you never went on vacation.  Connect a few lights to a timer to give the impression that someone is turning on lights at night.  Ask your neighbor or a friend to park in your driveway (or reserved space).  Although stopping the paper and mail while on vacation may seem clever, some home owners have a friend or neighbor pick up the daily paper and mail. 

One of the most common aspects of some summer home safeguards is having a trusted neighbor and/or friend occasionally check on the home.  They can ensure the home is secure, pick up any packages left at the door, and deal with any necessary maintenance (such as adjusting the thermostat).  Spreading this responsibility among multiple “guardians” can make it less of a burden and increase the frequency of “check-ins.”

Many local police departments offer a home security survey. Consider going through the survey to help with your planning.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/06/15/summer-home-safeguards/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

iBuyers are Just House Flippers

ibuyers
How much is your home worth? (infographic from nar.realtor)

Disruption in the marketplace seems to be the standard these days. So, it should not come as a surprise that the iBuyer phenomenon has taken hold of the real estate industry and is expanding.  What started out as an experiment in limited markets has grown into the internet version of “I Buy Houses.” (You’ve probably seen the “I Buy Houses” bandit signs around town.)  Nonetheless, iBuyers have become the trendy and acceptable version of house flippers.

According to Zillow, an iBuyer is “…a real estate investor that uses an automated valuation model (known as an AVM) and other technology to make cash offers on homes quickly.”  And although Zillow’s explanation of the iBuyer model describes that the home gets sold to the investor sight unseen, many will actually visit your home before finalizing the deal.

Automated valuations are helpful but not always accurate. Additionally, investors typically apply their AVM derived value into a formula to produce their offer price. Because they are akin to the Pawn Shop of the real estate industry, where they have to build in a profit for them, house flippers usually offer 70-75% of retail value (after repairs).

House flipping by any other name is still house flipping.  But the iBuyer trend has put a shiny veneer to the business.  The model allows for anonymity, at least initially, by giving you an offer to buy your home just by completing a form.  However, just like traditional real estate investors, iBuyer representatives will visit the home to confirm the accuracy of the reported home’s condition and other vital facts. 

If you’re looking to get top dollar on your home, you’re probably going to be disappointed with the iBuyer offer (or any real estate investor offer for that matter).  However, you might be willing to accept a lower offer on your home for a quick closing and selling “as-is.”  The desire of convenience of selling to real estate investors is confirmed by ATTOM Data Solutions 2018 Year-End Home Flipping report that indicated “207,957 U.S. single family homes and condos were flipped in 2018” (attomdata.com).  Although house flipping is down four percent from 2017, the numbers indicate a continued willingness by home owners to deal with house flippers. 

Don’t think you’re escaping the 6 percent commission when selling to iBuyers.

Patricia Mertz Esswein wrote recently that the iBuyer convenience comes at a cost (Kiplinger’s Personal Finance. April 2019, Vol. 73 Issue 4, p12).  She explained that iBuyer service fees range from 6 to 13 percent, which exceed Realtor commissions that typically range in today’s market from 3.5 to 5 percent!

Currently, most iBuyers are exclusive to specific markets that make the model financially sound.  However, new iBuyer companies are throwing their hats into the ring and expanding the model in new markets nationwide.  An article from the California Association of Realtors’ magazine (The Era of iBUYERS?; California Real Estate. September 2018, Vol. 98 Issue 6, p22-25) discusses the pros and cons of iBuyers and explains that the phenomenon is still in its “infancy.”  Meaning that iBuyer companies are still cautiously expanding in hot markets.  Furthermore, you should be wary of real estate brokers who engage in making iBuyer (or similar) offers as part of their listing service because it could be in conflict of their fiduciary duties to you.  

If you’re wanting to get top dollar on your home, you probably will go the traditional route and list on the MLS.  But, if you’re looking for a quick sale, explore all of your options.  Solicit and compare iBuyer offers to local real estate investor offers.  Also, consult with several real estate agents to not only get a picture of your home’s value, but they may have buyers for your home too. 

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/05/13/ibuyers-are-just-house-flippers

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Short sale is still relevant

short sale
Market conditions makes the short sale relevant (infographic from nar.realtor)

Believe it or not it’s been over ten years since the financial crises and Great Recession, and the short sale is still relevant! And this is why…

Coming on the heels of a dismal January, the National Association of Realtors March 22nd data release announced good news declaring a home sales “surge” during February (nar.realtor).  February’s closings increased 11.8 percent, compared to January!  But the bad news is that the number of sales also decreased 1.8 percent from last year. If you follow real estate news, you know that homes sales stats were disappointing during the winter. (Consider that 2018’s total existing home sales were lower than the previous year’s total, according to NAR’s statistics).  February’s adjusted annual home sale rate of 5.51 million is lower than the same time last year, and pales in comparison to the 6.48 million home sales in 2006.    

Although February was indeed a busy month, NAR’s March 28th data release of the Pending Home Sale Index predicts a slow start to the spring market.  Homes that went under contract during February decreased 1 percent from the previous month and decreased 4.9 percent from the previous year.  This “forward looking index” indicates that next month’s home sales may disappoint. 

But there is a silver lining.  Home sale prices continue to rise, meaning that home owner equity is not eroding. February’s median existing home sale price increased 3.6 percent from the same time last year.  And according to NAR’s statistics, home sale prices have risen for 84 consecutive months (which equates to 7 years of continued gains)!

There are many reasons for a short sale

Although home sale prices are rising, there are still many home owners who are underwater. According to Attom Data (attomdata.com), distressed home sales still account for 12.4 percent of all home sales.  Of course, this is far from the 38.6 percent in 2011.  And the percentage of distressed sale continues to decrease.  However, the number is still significant. 

It’s estimated there are millions of underwater home owners.  There are a number of reasons why home owners may be underwater, including (but not limited to) years of deferred maintenance, or a negative equity mortgage.  Many short sales today include investment properties.  Some home owners don’t know they are underwater until they list the home for sale. 

Although not as prevalent as in 2011, the short sale is still relevant!  Many underwater home owners don’t have to sell, as they are not financially distressed, and are happy to stay put for many years. However, some are compelled to sell for a number of reasons (such as divorce, bankruptcy, etc.).  Some underwater home owners may have a desire to move, but can’t because they are underwater (such as empty nesters and retirees). 

If you think your home sale may result in a short sale, get the facts.  Question what you hear from others and what you find on the internet.  There is a lot of information circulating about short sales.  A majority of the information is either misleading, erroneous, and/or outdated.  Consult with an attorney who negotiates sales to help you understand the legal aspects.  Also consult your accountant for the financial implications.

There is much to consider, and a lot at stake!  Be careful when considering your listing agent.  Due your due diligence and hire an experienced short sales agent that knows the process and is savvy about appealing lender values.  Many listing agents will give up on a short sale, mostly because it’s hard work. So most important, make sure your agent has a track record of getting the short sale to settlement.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2019/04/18/short-sale-is-still-relevant

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2019.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.