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June 12, 2015November 23, 2021

The cost of doing nothing – deferred maintenance and home values

If you want to have one of the faster home sales in the area, you’re probably going to have to wait until you die. According to a 2012 study, “estate sales” sell faster than other homes. Benefield, Rutherford, & Allen’s study compared time on market and price of estate sales to regular sales, and quantified what many ostensibly know: estate sales sell about 3.4% faster and about 3.6% less than other homes (Justin, D. Benefield, C. Rutherford Ronald, and T. Allen Marcus. “The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time.” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 45.4 (2012): 965-81).

Although the study is one of many recent studies raising awareness about real estate outcomes in our aging population, one of the main considerations for the rapid time frame and discounted sale price is deferred maintenance; and the issue of postponing home repairs and updates is prevalent among all age groups.

Before Kermit Baker wrote “The Return of Substandard Housing” for the Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, it was not quite known how much less home owners spent on home maintenance during and immediately after the Great Recession. However, the 2012 study indicated that “improvement spending” decreased 28% between 2007 and 2011, which essentially “erased” such spending during the housing boom (housingperspectives.blogspot.com).

And as the economy slowly improves and home prices increase, you might expect that home owners will reduce deferred maintenance and once again spend on home improvements. According to Craig Webb (Remodeling Activity Rose Again in 1Q, RRI Shows Nation remains on track to hit record remodeling pace this fall; May 18, 2015; remodeling.hw.net), the Residential Remodeling Index (RRI) increased 1.4% in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter, indicating that improvement spending is indeed on the rise (albeit below the 2007 peak).

But what’s the cost of doing nothing? Deferred home maintenance is cumulative, and its effects can be wide ranging. For many, having put off home maintenance and repairs has impacted home sales in recent years, and may continue to be a factor in years to come. Although average home prices have increased, many home owners have found that a lack of home maintenance, repairs and updates over the years is an impediment to selling their homes at higher prices – or even at all.

A mindset exists among many home owners, and even real estate agents, that years of deferred maintenance can be overcome with some updating and minor repairs just before a home sale. And although improvements will certainly make your home more appealing to home buyers, it won’t necessarily increase your home’s value as much as you think (or as much as you’ve been told).

Before undergoing any project, crunch the numbers and determine the value of your repairs/updates, and how that might realistically affect your estimated sale price. Remodeling Magazine’s annual Cost vs. Value Report (costvsvalue.com) can give you an idea of the return-on-investment (ROI) for improvement projects. Getting back to your expectation of adding value – most improvement projects will only return a fraction of the cost in today’s market.

If you are making improvements, you should consider hiring reputable, licensed contractors who are familiar with the permitting process and building code requirements; because ROI is not always determined by the amount spent on the project, but on the quality of workmanship as well.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/06/12/the-cost-of-doing-nothing-deferred-maintenance-and-home-values/

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Copyright © Dan Krell

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

June 25, 2014September 2, 2019

Want to increase your home’s value? Don’t use a nuke

A recent blog post titled, “Want to Increase Your Property Values? Try a Nuclear War” caught my attention. Robert Beckhusen & Matthew Gault, in their June 22^nd post on Medium.com discussed a couple of unclassified defense reports on the effects and aftermath of a nuclear war (including the 1965 study “The Effects Of Nuclear Weapons On A Single City”). They discovered that these reports were a morbid reminder of the consequences; one report stated: “In a macabre sense, the surviving population would be individually ‘wealthier’ than before the attack…” because surviving buildings would be more valuable and indirectly increasing the survivors’ per capita wealth.

These reports were speculative, and a conclusion could be that your home’s value could be tied to usability and location; homes in dense urban areas are expected to be valued more. However, as the 1965 report stated, “…any joy among the surviving population may be quite shortlived…” because there is no way to know if the surviving buildings and land are useable (due to radiation or other reasons).

As a means to increase your home’s value, nukes are not the answer. Accepted methods of adding value to your home include home improvements that you might expect: increasing the living space; adding a deck; improving the landscaping; updating the home’s systems; and renovating the kitchen and bathrooms. However, making home improvements do not always give you a dollar for dollar return; and some improvements could even detract from your home’s value too! Remodeling Magazine’s Cost vs. Value Report (costvsvalue.com) can give you an idea of the return on investment (ROI) for improvement projects.

Typically the trends indicate that the ROI of replacement projects are higher than that of remodeling projects. The 2014 Cost vs. Value Report indicates that the top ROI for midrange projects nationally include: installing a new steel entry door; adding a deck; converting an attic into a bedroom; replacing the garage; and a minor kitchen remodel.

Compared to the ROI locally for mid-range projects in the Washington DC region include: installing a new steel entry door; replacing the garage door; adding a deck; minor kitchen remodeling; and installing new vinyl siding.

As you peruse the Cost vs. Value Report, you may notice that a project Cost vs Value ratio can sometimes exceed 100% (recouping more than was spent on the project at resale); this is sometimes attributed to an active housing market, and/or market trends. Overall average home values can affect Cost vs Value trends too. A higher ROI was realized at the peak of the housing market in 2005; and the subsequent decline was most probably due to devalued home prices. And as you might expect, ROI on many improvement projects have increased over the past year because appreciating home values. Also, regional and metro area differences exist on improvement project Cost vs Value ratios because of labor and materials costs. Some experts cite the abundance of workers seeking employment as a reason for decreased labor costs in some areas; while material costs for some projects may be similar, and other project materials are more expensive.

Another consideration when making home improvements is that the ROI and your home’s value can be affected by the quality of workmanship and installation. Hiring reputable and licensed contractors or builders who are familiar with the permitting process as well as building code requirements is always recommended.

by Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. This article was originally published the week of June 23, 2014 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © Dan Krell.

January 30, 2014July 3, 2019

Could generational differences trigger deflation of housing

As the population ages, could generational differences trigger a housing deflation?

Many understand that there are numerous factors that affect the real estate market. Those who are interested may track the daily ups and downs of the stock, bond, or commodities markets; some look forward to reading the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meetings, and others may peruse the Fed’s “Beige Book.” But some economists are suggesting that many are overlooking the most obvious factor that could impact the real estate market for years – the aging population.

As the Baby Boomers make way for Generation X, the generational population size difference will be noticed in a number of ways. There is increasing discussion about the affect of the aging population on assets, specifically real estate and housing. As the population ages, some experts expect a deflationary market due to the shifting generational demographics. And a few imply that the deflationary effects of the great recession might pale in comparison to those of the generational shift.

In an October 2012 Realtor Magazine article, the Counselors of Real Estate® (an affiliate of the National Association of Realtors®) listed the “aging population” as the number one matter affecting real estate. Although an aging population impacts a number of real estate sectors (such as retail and medical); the demand for housing will certainly be affected. They define the shift geographically, where some regions gain over others.

Mary Ludgin, of Heitman LLC, describes the geographic shifts that may be associated with an aging population. In her article “Shifting Demographics: Real Estate Investment Implications,” Ludgin forecasts increasing demand for apartments and offices mostly in downtown areas. However, a population migration is expected to favor the “mountain west,” southwest, and southeast. She expects high amenity cities to do well.

A working paper published by the Bank for International Security (Aging and Asset Prices, August 2010; bis.org), presents the theory and data linking age demographics and asset prices. The paper asserts that because the Baby Boom generation is substantially larger than the preceding Swing generation (the WWII generation) and the subsequent Generation X, asset prices rose substantially during Boomers’ “active years;” and are expected to decrease during the declining years. The data suggests that Baby Boomers home buying activity pressured home prices to increase by as much as 40% during active years; and as the population ages, home prices are expected to decrease by as much as 30% in the next forty years. Yet, some economists and prognosticators are hyping such deflation to occur in the next ten years.

Although the result of an aging population on housing sounds daunting, aging demographics is not the only force active upon home prices. Although Japan is often cited as the poster child of negative influences of generational effects on home value; there are some economies, such as the UK, where home prices have transcended generational effects and made positive gains.

Even though attention focused on an aging Baby Boom generation has been about retirement and/or relocating, some have begun to talk about the generational shift’s effect on real estate and resulting home buying trends by Generation Xer’s and Yer’s, and Millennials. Besides geographical shifts, localized effects that are often experienced include the trend of transformation and/or tear down of older homes that once met the needs of previous generations, to build modern and efficient dwellings to meet the needs of those who are actively purchasing homes.

by Dan Krell
© 2014

December 19, 2013November 23, 2021

What’s a home worth – Appraisals, market analyses, and price opinions

“What’s the value of my home?” is a question that is often asked by many home owners at least once, usually before they decide to refinance or list their home for sale. Although the question seems straight forward enough, the answer may not be – and can vary depending on whom you ask.

Market Value can have different meanings. Some may view a home’s value in terms of an asset on a balance sheet, while others may consider a home’s value as a potential sales price. And although these approaches to value may be similar, there is often significant disparity in their conclusions.

Mortgage lenders consider a home to be an asset, which is the basis for lending you money; as well as the basis for bundling and selling mortgages on Wall Street. Additionally, a home is often considered an asset or liability when determining the disposition of legal proceedings, such as (but not limited to) probate and divorce. A real estate appraisal is most likely used in determining market value for these situations.

According to the Appraisal Institute (Pamphlet “Some Commonly Asked Questions About Real Estate Appraisers and Appraisals”; appraisalinstitute.org), “An appraisal is a professional appraiser’s opinion of value. The preparation of an appraisal involves research into appropriate market areas; the assembly and analysis of information pertinent to a property; and the knowledge, experience and professional judgment of the appraiser.” Additionally, Title 16 of the Business Occupations and Professions, Annotated Code of Maryland defines an “appraisal” as a “…means an analysis, conclusion, or opinion about the nature, quality, utility, or value of interests in or aspects of identified real estate” (§ 16-101. Definitions).

Not to be confused with an appraisal, a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) can assist a home owner with deciding on a listing or sales price. In fact, § 16-101 differentiates a CMA from an appraisal by stating, “’Appraisal’ does not include an opinion to a potential seller or third party by a person licensed under Title 17 of this article [referring to a real estate broker] about the recommended listing price or recommended purchase price of real estate, provided that the opinion is not referred to as an appraisal.”

If you are asking about the value of your home because you’re planning a home sale, consider consulting with a real estate and a CMA. Although a thorough and professional CMA is not an appraisal, a CMA is a technical and methodical procedure that is typically limited to a specific neighborhood or subdivision so as to offer a rationale for a probable listing or sales price. Unlike appraisal methodology, which is uniform; there is no standard approach to preparing a CMA; however, a comprehensive CMA can be technical and systematic, as well as offering a market trends analysis in one, three, and six month segments.

Many lenders have also turned to agent prepared CMA’s to assist in determining potential listing or sales prices for distressed assets (e.g., foreclosures and short sales). Also known as broker price opinions, these CMA’s provide a market snapshot to assist with such disposition decisions.

The value of your home will vary depending on whom you ask; your neighbor may even have an opinion. However, if you’re planning a home sale, an experienced agent and their detailed CMA may be your best source of information to decide on a listing price.

by Dan Krell © 2013
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. This article was originally published the week of December 16, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

May 1, 2013June 29, 2019

Hybrid housing market not for the squeamish

A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!

Although few home owners are venturing to list their homes, those who do may be seeking a premium price; most likely due to the optimism permeating the air. Furthermore some are expecting the prize of getting multiple offers with escalation clauses. Owners of homes that do not sell within the first week of listing are anxiously wondering, “Why hasn’t my house sold yet?”

The flip side is that although home buyers are plentiful (compared to the current home inventory), there still seems to be many home buyers who seek to buy a home at a 5%+ discount. Unlike the “bargain hunter,” many of these home buyers are more concerned with future home resale (which may be indicative of a lack of confidence in the future housing market).

Pressure on home buyers and sellers is likely originating from reports of bubble activity pockets that seems to be popping up, and recent home price indices that indicate increasing national average home prices. Regardless, there appears to be a lack of symmetry among home sales as well as a lack of consistency among home buyers and sellers.

So if you’re planning a home sale or purchase, what are you to make of this? You should understand that national home price indices are comprised of multiple regions, and much of the national home price increase is due to regions that had the highest home price declines over the last six years, as well as a few pockets of very hot activity (unlike the home price climb during 2004-2006, which was mostly due to high confidence in the housing market, easy credit, and a much different economy). Likewise, the Metro DC region is microcosm of the national picture, such that it is comprised of a number of counties that realized double digit home price decreases, as well as a few pockets of hot activity.

To add some perspective to local market trends, the average days-on-market of a home in Montgomery County is roughly 60 days (depending on the source). Additionally, Montgomery County single family home data compiled by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated that median and average single family home price decreased year over year for the last three consecutive months. And while the number of homes listed continues to decline, the number of pending home sales (homes under contract) has also declined in March year over year, as well as year to date.

Getting into the market requires solid data, a strategy, and an open mind. If you’re selling: consult with your agent about recent neighborhood prices; and stay informed of all activity, as it could be your cue to decisions made on the sale. If you’re buying: in addition to discussing comp data, you should consult with your agent about a strategy to deal with competition from other home buyers.

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© 2013

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.