Housing Market Archives - Page 18 of 26 - Real Estate News and Commentary

October 11, 2013July 2, 2019

Talking housing market conditions beyond media narrative

At a recent round table meeting chaired by local real estate agents and lenders, someone asked the Realtors® to describe current market conditions. Although descriptions were given with pride and confidence, they were not different from the depictions that have been reported throughout the year; the responses seemed shallow and pedestrian.

Attendees were hoping for responses that demonstrated a grasp of the local housing market, but instead they got a media narrative that doesn’t tell the whole story. One agent eagerly provided her response saying, “there is a lack of inventory, making it difficult for buyers to find a home.” While another agent described how home sellers need to be realistic about home prices because buyers are wary of paying higher prices and continued appraisal issues.

To say that housing inventory is low is not telling the whole story. Local housing market activity during 2013, not unlike conditions reported around the country, felt like the peak market conditions of eight years ago – but for different reasons. Montgomery County’s active single family home listings through September 2013 increased about 7.7% compared to the same period in 2012, as reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com). Although county single family home active listings are less than half that were recorded in 2007; consider that SFH actives are also at about the same level reported during 2005, which is considered to be the peak market.

Although the number of homes listed may be close to the same levels of the peak market, SFH closings are reported to be about 34% lower than the number reported during the same period in 2005; and SFH contract activity is about 30% lower than 2005 as well. Even though the market has seemed as if it has been the most active in recent years, SFH contract activity is slightly lower than the same period in 2009.

And although home sale prices have rebounded somewhat, average sale prices continue to be way below what they were during the market peak. It is easy for home sellers to grasp on the reports of double-digit year-over-year increases; however, sellers who expect the same return are disappointed. The year over year jump in home prices are explained by some experts as a statistical phenomenon produced by the sharp decrease in distressed home sales (e.g., foreclosures and short sales). This can be accounted for by the nominal month-over-month increases in average home sale prices through 2013.

Home sale absorption rate through 2013 has been similar to that of 2012, considered to be the housing market bottom. Absorption rate measures the pace of home sales by comparing monthly sales to the same month’s listings. This similar pace may indicate that the increased activity during 2013 may not be due to “pent up demand,” which has been a popular narrative by economists; but rather it may signify the underlying strengths in the marketplace.

That being said, the housing market is co-dependent on overall economic conditions. As mortgage interest rates have slowly risen, we have seen a resiliency in the market as home sales have remained stable. And as some economists are talking about the possibility of the double digit interest rates in the future, it appears as if a slow and deliberate increase has not yet deterred home buyers.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 26, 2013July 1, 2019

Are rising interest rates helpful?

After much speculation, mortgage interest rates appear to be on the move. Even with rising interest rates, rates are still relatively low. Some economists expect that when the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program begins tapering, mortgage interest rates may jump due to financial market volatility.

Many fear that rising interest rates could derail the recovering housing market. In an August 19th news release (realtor.org), Chief NAR economist Lawrence Yun stated that although the pace of home sales are at its highest since February 2007, the market could be experiencing a “temporary peak” due to home buyers’ seeking to close deals before interest rates rise significantly. Looking ahead, Dr. Yun expects that rising interest rates and limited inventory could create an imbalanced market due to inconsistent home sales.

Home sale prices also have been rising, prompting bidding wars, as the median home sale price was reported by NAR to have maintained nine consecutive months of double digit year over year increases. However, Dr. Yun stated, “Limited inventory in some areas means multiple bidding remains a factor; 17 percent of all homes sold above the asking price in August, although 63 percent sold below list price.”

This week’s release of July’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (spindices.com) also revealed that home sale prices were still holding onto the double digit annual rate of gain over 2012 levels, as the 10 city and 20 city composites posted about a 12% year over year increase for July. However, it is pointed out that home price are still “far below their peak levels.”

The sharp increases in home sale prices sparked fears of another housing bubble. But price gains only increased about 2% from June to July. Monthly price gains have lessened, and the gradual slowdown of home price gains may indicate that home prices may be peaking. Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, David M. Blitzer, stated, “Following the increase in mortgage rates beginning last May, applications for mortgages have dropped, suggesting that rising interest rates are affecting housing. The Fed’s announcement last week that QE3 bond buying will continue for the time being may have only a limited, though favorable, impact on housing.”

The rapid increase in home prices has affected potential appreciation for many home owners who waited to sell their homes. And the increased inventory provided additional housing stock for eager home buyers. Given the recent increases in home sale prices, the expectation of an uncertain real estate market may not be welcome news by home buyers and sellers.

But home price increases have not only helped the housing market, but the economy as a whole. CoreLogic (corelogic.com) reported that the housing sector contributed about 17% to GDP growth during the first quarter of 2013. However, CoreLogic predicts that increasing mortgage rates will directly affect the housing market, and indirectly affect the overall economy: Single family housing starts (new homes) are thought to be declining because of increasing mortgage rates; and CoreLogic estimates that long term GDP growth to be about 1.75%.

It remains to be seen if modest increases in mortgage interest rates have been beneficial to stave off another housing bubble. However, given that the indicators and experts point to a housing recovery peak; increasing mortgage interest rates could suggest caution for the housing market.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2013/09/26/rising-interest-rates-a-help-and-hindrance-to-recovering-housing-market-2/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

August 8, 2013July 2, 2019

Amazon and real estate – will Bezos’ vision change marketing of home listings

The big news this week is of course Jeff Bezos’ purchase of the Washington Post. Why would the man who predicted the demise print media pay $250 million for a regional newspaper and a handful of associated local papers?

If the real estate business is a window into how media plays a role in the daily lives of the average American, then Bezos’ purchase might be a head scratcher. Over the last five years, the National Association of Realtors® annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (realtor.org) has demonstrated how the internet has increasingly played a role in how home buyers actively searched for homes. In 2007, the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers indicated that about 60% of home buyers completely relied on the internet to search for their home, while about 21% did not use the internet at all in their search. Compare those statistics to the 2012 Profile, which reported that 90% of home buyers used the internet to search for homes; and home buyers who were younger than 44 years of age, the use of the internet is reported to be 96%!

It seems as if home buyers relied on the weekend real estate sections of the paper for a leg up on new home listings and open houses. Real estate agents and brokers happily paid to have their listings included in what seemed to be the weekly catalog of homes for sale. In addition to the home listings, print real estate sections also included other related information (such as decorating, renovation, and buying/selling tips).

However, as the NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers indicated, there was a sharp increase in the reliance of the internet to search for homes from 2007 -2012. The time frame is no coincidence; besides the exponential increase in technology and computing power during this period, it also covers the housing bust and subsequent foreclosure crisis. This was a time of tight advertising budgets and the search for efficient advertising modes; the internet offered a bigger bang for the advertising dollar, offering a more robust real estate platform than print could ever offer.

And although there was a colossal increase in the reliance of the internet for real estate listing information in the last five years, there was a consolidation and reorganization of online real estate content during that time frame as well. As the housing market declined in 2007, many sites stopped syndicating their own content and instead partnered with one of the high profile, well organized real estate portals.

It might seem as if the purchase of the Washington Post by an internet visionary who had once foretold the death of printed news might be confusing. But if you understand the Amazon.com business model and how it revolutionized the purchase and delivery of print and recorded media, you would not speculate that the purchase of the venerable news organization was to expand an internet empire to the newsstand – but rather you might believe that the purchase was to acquire a widely recognized brand that generates a considerable amount of content that can be packaged and sold through Bezos’ established model.

Just as the internet revolutionized real estate content and home listings, you might imagine how Bezos’ novel news paradigm could increase the robustness of content and distribution of home and open house listings.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

July 25, 2013July 1, 2019

When is best time to sell a home

Buyers aren’t the only ones looking for a deal. Home sellers are also looking for a good deal – which means they want to sell their home for the most money. As it seemed as if the housing market had strong sales this year, some sellers are still trying to decide the best time to sell. But unfortunately, timing the market may not be as easy as it seems.

Some say that spring is the best time of year to list and sell a home, while others believe that summer is better. Old time real estate agents will tell you about a time when there was a traditional selling season, which basically started in March and ran through June. In recent history, it seems as if the boom/bust market from 2005-2008 rewrote those rules. During the “go-go” market, the spring selling season couldn’t start early enough; home buyers made their New Year’s resolutions and shook off the winter fog in early January to begin their home search. For several years, it seemed as if home buyers started their real estate searching earlier each year to stake their claims on real estate before other buyers got wind of the listing.

However, once the bubble busted, home buyer activity significantly slowed, those who wanted to buy a home became increasingly methodical about their purchase as well as starting their search later in the year. It seemed as if the best time to list and sell shifted from the spring time to summer months.

Since the downturn of the housing market, sales activity peaked in the summer months. June has been a consistent contender for year high sale totals – until this year. The July 22^nd news release from the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) indicated that June sales “slipped” about 1.9% from May. Granted, June’s sales are significantly higher than June of 2012, but the slowdown may just be a fluke or an indication of something else.

Maybe the combination of increased inventory (NAR reported that housing inventory was slightly elevated from May to about a 5.2 month supply) along with rising mortgage rates (Freddie Mac’s June national average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 4.07%) is making home buyers pause.

And surely home prices are making buyers have second thoughts; bargain hunters are having difficulty finding bargains. June’s national median existing home sale price increased 13.5% compared to last June. Distressed home sales, foreclosures and short sales that typically sell at lower prices, accounted for 15% of June’s figures (compared to last June’s 26%) and are at the lowest levels since 2008. And although it may sound like great news, the double-digit jumps in the average home sale price may be a statistical artifact due to declining distressed home sales.

If you’re waiting to list your home for sale this year, you may have mistimed this year’s market.

Research has demonstrated that attempting to time the market may not always yield the best results – timing the market is much easier in hind sight. Market timing appears to be much more than looking at selling activity cycles. You should rely on the expertise of your real estate professional for neighborhood sales data and trends to assist you in deciding the price and the timing of listing and selling your home.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

July 12, 2013November 23, 2021

Rising mortgage interest rates – what that means for housing market

by Dan Krell © 2013
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DanKrell.com

Over the last few weeks, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage has slowly climbed from the historical low we have become accustomed over the last few years to well above 4%, as reported by Freddie Mac’s Monthly Average Commitment Rate as of July 3rd. And although it’s still relatively low and not bad as interest rates go; keep in mind that the mortgage rate averaged over the last 40 years is much higher – some report it to be 8.75%.

If you haven’t noticed, average mortgage rates have been below 7% for about ten years. And even when the housing market was bubbling, rates were not as low as where rates are today. After the financial crisis, mortgage rates were kept low by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to purchasing mortgage backed securities; which was an attempt to stimulate interest in real estate purchases at a time when the housing market all but screeched to a halt. Shortly after the Fed ended the mortgage backed securities purchase program, a broader securities buying program began with the intent to stimulate the overall economy; commonly called quantitative easing, this was considered the second round, which targeted the purchase of U.S. Treasury Bonds. The Quantitative Easing program was extended into a third phase (QE3) through 2013, which many are speculating will begin tapering off by end of the year.

Recent Fed comments may have hinted to tapering off the QE program, which could have been the source of some Wall Street panic earlier this month that resulted in a volatile market; besides affecting your 401k, the result has been a jump in mortgage interest rates.

Of course, many experts are worried about mortgage rate increases and the effect on home buyers, citing a decreased home buying ability as well as the possibility of suppressing existing homes sales. For some home buyers, it might be true that increased interest rates could be a wrench in their home buying plans; however, the reality may be that increasing mortgage rates are a sign that the housing market is healthier than some think.

Although mortgage interest rates are just one aspect of a multi-factor dynamic housing market; housing demand is not necessarily gauged by mortgage interest rates alone. For instance, the height of the housing bubble, mortgage interest rates were much higher than they are today. One sign that slightly increased mortgage rates have not negatively affected the overall market is a recent report by the National Association of Realtors (realtor.org) that May 2013 existing home sales (completed sales) increased about 11.4% compared to May 2012. Additionally, the NAR reported that existing home sales are the highest since 2009.

There has been criticism that the “artificially” low interest rates have helped home sale prices jump, especially during a time when there has been little housing inventory; some are concerned that increases in mortgage rates will pressure home sale prices lower. But just like the housing demand concern, these factors alone are not in a vacuum; factors today may warrant mortgage rate increases to thwart abnormal housing price spikes (which are common in bubble markets).

Of course, rising mortgage rates and the thought of paying more for a mortgage is not always good news to home buyers. However, given the circumstances and looking at the broader perspective, the result may be much better than anyone could imagine – a stable housing market. But that is yet to be seen.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published the week of July 8, 2013 (Montgomery County Sentinel). Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

The big news this week is of course Jeff Bezos’ purchase of the Washington Post. Why would the man who predicted the demise print media pay $250 million for a regional newspaper and a handful of associated local papers?

by Dan Krell © 2013 Google+ DanKrell.com

by Dan Krell © 2013
Google+
DanKrell.com