Tag: Housing market trends

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Talking housing market conditions beyond media narrative

real estate

At a recent round table meeting chaired by local real estate agents and lenders, someone asked the Realtors® to describe current market conditions. Although descriptions were given with pride and confidence, they were not different from the depictions that have been reported throughout the year; the responses seemed shallow and pedestrian.

Attendees were hoping for responses that demonstrated a grasp of the local housing market, but instead they got a media narrative that doesn’t tell the whole story. One agent eagerly provided her response saying, “there is a lack of inventory, making it difficult for buyers to find a home.” While another agent described how home sellers need to be realistic about home prices because buyers are wary of paying higher prices and continued appraisal issues.

To say that housing inventory is low is not telling the whole story. Local housing market activity during 2013, not unlike conditions reported around the country, felt like the peak market conditions of eight years ago – but for different reasons. Montgomery County’s active single family home listings through September 2013 increased about 7.7% compared to the same period in 2012, as reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com). Although county single family home active listings are less than half that were recorded in 2007; consider that SFH actives are also at about the same level reported during 2005, which is considered to be the peak market.

Although the number of homes listed may be close to the same levels of the peak market, SFH closings are reported to be about 34% lower than the number reported during the same period in 2005; and SFH contract activity is about 30% lower than 2005 as well. Even though the market has seemed as if it has been the most active in recent years, SFH contract activity is slightly lower than the same period in 2009.

And although home sale prices have rebounded somewhat, average sale prices continue to be way below what they were during the market peak. It is easy for home sellers to grasp on the reports of double-digit year-over-year increases; however, sellers who expect the same return are disappointed. The year over year jump in home prices are explained by some experts as a statistical phenomenon produced by the sharp decrease in distressed home sales (e.g., foreclosures and short sales). This can be accounted for by the nominal month-over-month increases in average home sale prices through 2013.

Home sale absorption rate through 2013 has been similar to that of 2012, considered to be the housing market bottom. Absorption rate measures the pace of home sales by comparing monthly sales to the same month’s listings. This similar pace may indicate that the increased activity during 2013 may not be due to “pent up demand,” which has been a popular narrative by economists; but rather it may signify the underlying strengths in the marketplace.

That being said, the housing market is co-dependent on overall economic conditions. As mortgage interest rates have slowly risen, we have seen a resiliency in the market as home sales have remained stable. And as some economists are talking about the possibility of the double digit interest rates in the future, it appears as if a slow and deliberate increase has not yet deterred home buyers.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

Disclaimer.  This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice.  Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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When is best time to sell a home

Housing Market

Buyers aren’t the only ones looking for a deal.  Home sellers are also looking for a good deal – which means they want to sell their home for the most money.  As it seemed as if the housing market had strong sales this year, some sellers are still trying to decide the best time to sell.  But unfortunately, timing the market may not be as easy as it seems.

Some say that spring is the best time of year to list and sell a home, while others believe that summer is better.  Old time real estate agents will tell you about a time when there was a traditional selling season, which basically started in March and ran through June.  In recent history, it seems as if the boom/bust market from 2005-2008 rewrote those rules.  During the “go-go” market, the spring selling season couldn’t start early enough; home buyers made their New Year’s resolutions and shook off the winter fog in early January to begin their home search.  For several years, it seemed as if home buyers started their real estate searching earlier each year to stake their claims on real estate before other buyers got wind of the listing.

However, once the bubble busted, home buyer activity significantly slowed, those who wanted to buy a home became increasingly methodical about their purchase as well as starting their search later in the year.  It seemed as if the best time to list and sell shifted from the spring time to summer months.

Since the downturn of the housing market, sales activity peaked in the summer months.  June has been a consistent contender for year high sale totals – until this year.  The July 22nd news release from the National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) indicated that June sales “slipped” about 1.9% from May.  Granted, June’s sales are significantly higher than June of 2012, but the slowdown may just be a fluke or an indication of something else.

Maybe the combination of increased inventory (NAR reported that housing inventory was slightly elevated from May to about a 5.2 month supply) along with rising mortgage rates (Freddie Mac’s June national average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 4.07%) is making home buyers pause.

And surely home prices are making buyers have second thoughts; bargain hunters are having difficulty finding bargains.  June’s national median existing home sale price increased 13.5% compared to last June.  Distressed home sales, foreclosures and short sales that typically sell at lower prices, accounted for 15% of June’s figures (compared to last June’s 26%) and are at the lowest levels since 2008.  And although it may sound like great news, the double-digit jumps in the average home sale price may be a statistical artifact due to declining distressed home sales.

If you’re waiting to list your home for sale this year, you may have mistimed this year’s market.

Research has demonstrated that attempting to time the market may not always yield the best results – timing the market is much easier in hind sight.  Market timing appears to be much more than looking at selling activity cycles.  You should rely on the expertise of your real estate professional for neighborhood sales data and trends to assist you in deciding the price and the timing of listing and selling your home.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

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A balanced real estate market emerges despite fears of a housing bubble

real estate bubbleAs talk of a housing recovery is gaining traction, some experts are saying the recovery may be artificial and short lived. Warnings from economists and a former mortgage executive paint a picture of a possible housing bubble being caused by the source they claim is cause for increasing home prices.

Steve Cook, of Real Estate Economy Watch, revealed a recent survey of 105 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists. Although respondents predicted positive home price appreciation through 2014; the experts expect that home prices won’t fare as well during ensuing years through 2017. Furthermore, 48% of the respondents felt that current Federal Reserve monetary policy might be the reason for recent home price spikes; which may be creating a future housing bubble.

A majority of the expert panel suggested that requiring a minimum down payment in the Qualified Residential Mortgage (a provision to allow lenders to bypass credit risk retention rules) would create a long-term sustainable housing market. However, only about a third of respondents believe that a minimum down payment should be 20% or more.

An April 9th online article for The Wall Street Journal titled “Is the Fed Blowing a New Housing Bubble?” written by former Fannie Mae executive, Edward Pinto, explores the source for of the housing recovery. Pinto pointed out that although recent home price surges are the highest since 2006, data released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicate that home price increases may not be due to “broad based improvements in the economy’s fundamentals.” But rather, home price increases are being driven by low interest rates due to the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program.

Pinto compares current market conditions to those of 2006, when government policies also likely contributed to a housing bubble. During that period, like today, income is not keeping pace with home price increases. As an example, he cited FHFA’s conventional home-financing data that indicated new home purchase prices increased 9% during February 2013 and 15% during February 2013; while income barely increased 2% (keeping relative pace with inflation).

Pinto and his assessment of recent home price spikes are getting some attention. John Aidan Byrne of the NY Post wrote on May 6th (“Next Home Crisis”) about Pinto and his concerns. Because suppressed interest rates are pushing home sale prices up, Pinto surmises that when the Fed’s QE program ends, interest rates will rise creating an “inevitable housing disaster.” However, he concludes that to avoid a housing disaster: income must increase 33%, home sale prices will drop about 25%, or lending standards must loosen significantly. He points out that loose lending policies did not end well in the last housing bubble (http://www.nypost.com/).

Regardless of murmurs of another housing bubble, current market conditions might indicate a balanced market. The trend of monthly local absorption rates compiled from the local multiple list service has consistently shown to be in recent months between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market (absorption during a buyer’s market tends to be below 50%, while a seller’s market tends to be above 60%).

Even though there is little inventory, supply and demand may be in overall balance. However, that being said; supply and demand seems to be out of balance for well priced updated homes, which appear to the source of bidding wars and escalation clauses. Homes priced above the market and/or needing repairs/updates take longer to sell.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2013

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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What housing market surveys are telling us

You’ve probably heard, now and then, reports of housing surveys giving a status report of the housing and the real estate market. Of course the scientific method is forgotten for a chance at a headline; technical details and summaries are usually condensed to a one sentenced sound-bite. If you’ve ever taken the time to look into the survey results to see the samples and questions, you can see that any one poll is only a snapshot of respondents’ attitudes at the time of the survey.

The results of recent housing surveys conducted by Fannie Mae (fanniemae.com) are telling of the current economic environment. Reported quarterly and monthly, the National Housing Survey (NHS) “offers a window into the opinions of Americans across the country…” about owning and renting a home as well as personal finances and confidence in the economy.

The most recent quarterly NHS results were released August 15th, and quoted Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, as saying, “… consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market.” Additionally, the quarterly survey indicated increasing consumer pessimism as employment concerns tops the list, economy on wrong track…yada, yada, yada.

Ok, not news to you. But how about trends indicating a further decline of the housing market?

The most recent monthly NHS (released October 10th) reported a “marked deterioration” of consumer home price expectancies. Mr. Duncan was quoted here saying that, “…The lack of a sense of urgency to buy homes, given expectations for further declines in home prices and continued low mortgage rates, coupled with general pessimism regarding their own personal finances and the economy, bodes poorly for the recovery of the housing market.”

The Home Values Survey (HVS) is another telling survey, which is conducted by Homegain (homegain.com); and examines Realtor® and consumer sentiment about the housing market and economy. The most recent Regional HVS was reported September 11th for Q3 indicated: that although a majority of real estate agents surveyed reported their client’s homes depreciated in value, home sellers continued to over-value their homes; home buyers overwhelmingly reported that homes were overpriced; 39% of home buyers surveyed in the Northeast reported that they thought homes were overpriced 10%- to 20%; and an overwhelming majority of real estate agents surveyed in the Northeast (62%) reported they believed that home values would decrease in the next six months.

The outlook is not all doom and gloom. Some surveys report a positive spin as well.

Although a Rasmussen Reports (rasmussenreports.com ) survey reported on September 21st indicated that 48% of adults nationwide felt that buying a home is the best investment for one’s family, a commentary posted on rasmussenreports.com (The Housing Bust Has a Good Side by Froma Harrop; September 22nd) promotes the idea that the housing downturn has brought home owners back to fiscal reality.

Additionally, Gallop (gallop.com) reported in April that of the American adults surveyed, there were just as many who felt that the average home price would decrease (30%) than increase (28%) in the coming year. And, of course- an overwhelming majority of those surveyed (69%) felt it was a good time to buy a home.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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Coping with a low appraisal

I know it’s trite to say that selling your home in today’s economic environment is challenging. You know that home buyers are very picky and money is tight. However, are you (or your real estate agent) prepared for a low appraisal?

According to the Appraisal Institute (appraisalinstitute.org), an appraisal is “a professional appraiser’s opinion of value.” The appraiser’s role is to “provide objective, impartial, and unbiased opinions about the value of real property”… “Appraisers assemble a series of facts, statistics, and other information regarding specific properties, analyze this data, and develop opinions of value.”

Although there is a standardized procedure in conducting and preparing an appraisal, lenders add their own criteria to meet their underwriting requirements. There is no doubt that many lenders have made their criteria more restrictive since the housing market downturn.

Contrary to the current attitudes, low appraisals have always been around. It was not until the market downturn when many home sellers were confronted with concrete evidence of their home’s depreciation. However, the issues with today’s low appraisals are slightly different those of years past. In addition to stricter lender requirements and increased appraisal scrutiny, some have argued that changes to the appraisal industry (including management and ordering) may have also contributed to low appraisals.

Although not as pervasive as they were several years ago, low appraisals are still common. If your home does appraise lower than the contract price, you can appeal the value with the lender – but it will be difficult. In the past, appraisal appeals were less demanding (typical comparables were homes that sold within 6 months and 1 to 5 miles from your home) providing you a higher chance of success. However, today’s lender requirements are more restrictive. Although lenders vary on their requirements, many lenders now only accept appeals that include three original comparables that sold within the last 3 months and are within ½ mile (or less) of your home.

Don’t wait for a low appraisal to throw a wrench in your sale; take a proactive approach. Long gone are the days of setting a price by tacking on thousands to your neighbor’s recent sale price! Pricing your home correctly doesn’t only help attract home buyers, but it can also help avoid a low appraisal. Furthermore, choosing appropriate comparables for your pricing strategy is highly important, which include: comparables that are most similar to your home (same style and within 15% to 20% of living area and lot size); the most recent sales (within 3 months, but nor more than 6 months); and in close proximity to your home (unless you are in a rural are the comparable should be within ½ mile, but no more than 1 mile).

Additionally, the appraiser should be provided with your pricing rationale (i.e., the comparables that indicate that your sale price is in line with the market as well as a list of improvements that add value to your home). The intent is not to pester the appraiser while they are trying to do their job. However, some appraisers are appreciative that you have made the effort to provide the information (especially those who are unfamiliar with the local market).

Regardless of the outcome of your home’s appraisal, take heart that you can be proactive to possibly avoid appraisal issues. And if need be, don’t be afraid to appeal a low appraisal.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

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