Housing market trends Archives - Page 6 of 7 - Real Estate News and Commentary

October 12, 2011August 2, 2019

What housing market surveys are telling us

You’ve probably heard, now and then, reports of housing surveys giving a status report of the housing and the real estate market. Of course the scientific method is forgotten for a chance at a headline; technical details and summaries are usually condensed to a one sentenced sound-bite. If you’ve ever taken the time to look into the survey results to see the samples and questions, you can see that any one poll is only a snapshot of respondents’ attitudes at the time of the survey.

The results of recent housing surveys conducted by Fannie Mae (fanniemae.com) are telling of the current economic environment. Reported quarterly and monthly, the National Housing Survey (NHS) “offers a window into the opinions of Americans across the country…” about owning and renting a home as well as personal finances and confidence in the economy.

The most recent quarterly NHS results were released August 15th, and quoted Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, as saying, “… consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market.” Additionally, the quarterly survey indicated increasing consumer pessimism as employment concerns tops the list, economy on wrong track…yada, yada, yada.

Ok, not news to you. But how about trends indicating a further decline of the housing market?

The most recent monthly NHS (released October 10th) reported a “marked deterioration” of consumer home price expectancies. Mr. Duncan was quoted here saying that, “…The lack of a sense of urgency to buy homes, given expectations for further declines in home prices and continued low mortgage rates, coupled with general pessimism regarding their own personal finances and the economy, bodes poorly for the recovery of the housing market.”

The Home Values Survey (HVS) is another telling survey, which is conducted by Homegain (homegain.com); and examines Realtor® and consumer sentiment about the housing market and economy. The most recent Regional HVS was reported September 11th for Q3 indicated: that although a majority of real estate agents surveyed reported their client’s homes depreciated in value, home sellers continued to over-value their homes; home buyers overwhelmingly reported that homes were overpriced; 39% of home buyers surveyed in the Northeast reported that they thought homes were overpriced 10%- to 20%; and an overwhelming majority of real estate agents surveyed in the Northeast (62%) reported they believed that home values would decrease in the next six months.

The outlook is not all doom and gloom. Some surveys report a positive spin as well.

Although a Rasmussen Reports (rasmussenreports.com ) survey reported on September 21st indicated that 48% of adults nationwide felt that buying a home is the best investment for one’s family, a commentary posted on rasmussenreports.com (The Housing Bust Has a Good Side by Froma Harrop; September 22nd) promotes the idea that the housing downturn has brought home owners back to fiscal reality.

Additionally, Gallop (gallop.com) reported in April that of the American adults surveyed, there were just as many who felt that the average home price would decrease (30%) than increase (28%) in the coming year. And, of course- an overwhelming majority of those surveyed (69%) felt it was a good time to buy a home.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 1, 2011August 1, 2019

Coping with a low appraisal

I know it’s trite to say that selling your home in today’s economic environment is challenging. You know that home buyers are very picky and money is tight. However, are you (or your real estate agent) prepared for a low appraisal?

According to the Appraisal Institute (appraisalinstitute.org), an appraisal is “a professional appraiser’s opinion of value.” The appraiser’s role is to “provide objective, impartial, and unbiased opinions about the value of real property”… “Appraisers assemble a series of facts, statistics, and other information regarding specific properties, analyze this data, and develop opinions of value.”

Although there is a standardized procedure in conducting and preparing an appraisal, lenders add their own criteria to meet their underwriting requirements. There is no doubt that many lenders have made their criteria more restrictive since the housing market downturn.

Contrary to the current attitudes, low appraisals have always been around. It was not until the market downturn when many home sellers were confronted with concrete evidence of their home’s depreciation. However, the issues with today’s low appraisals are slightly different those of years past. In addition to stricter lender requirements and increased appraisal scrutiny, some have argued that changes to the appraisal industry (including management and ordering) may have also contributed to low appraisals.

Although not as pervasive as they were several years ago, low appraisals are still common. If your home does appraise lower than the contract price, you can appeal the value with the lender – but it will be difficult. In the past, appraisal appeals were less demanding (typical comparables were homes that sold within 6 months and 1 to 5 miles from your home) providing you a higher chance of success. However, today’s lender requirements are more restrictive. Although lenders vary on their requirements, many lenders now only accept appeals that include three original comparables that sold within the last 3 months and are within ½ mile (or less) of your home.

Don’t wait for a low appraisal to throw a wrench in your sale; take a proactive approach. Long gone are the days of setting a price by tacking on thousands to your neighbor’s recent sale price! Pricing your home correctly doesn’t only help attract home buyers, but it can also help avoid a low appraisal. Furthermore, choosing appropriate comparables for your pricing strategy is highly important, which include: comparables that are most similar to your home (same style and within 15% to 20% of living area and lot size); the most recent sales (within 3 months, but nor more than 6 months); and in close proximity to your home (unless you are in a rural are the comparable should be within ½ mile, but no more than 1 mile).

Additionally, the appraiser should be provided with your pricing rationale (i.e., the comparables that indicate that your sale price is in line with the market as well as a list of improvements that add value to your home). The intent is not to pester the appraiser while they are trying to do their job. However, some appraisers are appreciative that you have made the effort to provide the information (especially those who are unfamiliar with the local market).

Regardless of the outcome of your home’s appraisal, take heart that you can be proactive to possibly avoid appraisal issues. And if need be, don’t be afraid to appeal a low appraisal.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 12, 2011July 26, 2019

Can timing the real estate market help you get a better deal?

If you’re trying to time the market before buying or selling your home, you may decide to wait a little longer after hearing the recent housing data; however, you could also change your mind when you consider some recent research.

First, a recent housing report released May 8th by Zillow.com indicates further erosion of home values. According to Zillow.com’s chief economist Stan Humphries, home values continue to slide nationwide – except for the metro areas of Honolulu, HI (there was a slight increase in home values in March 2011 compared to the same time last year) and Pittsburgh, PA (where home values have been determined to be flat for the time period) (Zillow.com).

Even the Washington, DC metropolitan appears to have taken a hit. According to Zillow.com, area home values declined 0.5% in March 2011 compared to February 2011; and declined 7% in March 2011 compared to March 2010.

Humphries further stated that housing demand continues to be “fundamentally weak;” while housing supply is and will continue to be affected by distressed properties due to higher than normal delinquency rates (which are expected to continue into the near future).

Given the less than rosy picture of the housing market, those doubting the long term value of home ownership may continue to wait out the market. But a recent research article by Anderson & Harris (2010. Timing the market: You don’t have to be perfect. Real Estate Issues 35, (3) (10): 42-42-50) may indicate that you don’t have to be perfect when timing your purchase and sale of your home.

Anderson & Harris studied various strategies of purchasing and selling commercial real estate to determine if there is a significant difference in return. Their strategy simulation provided these results: the typical “buy and hold strategy” over a thirty year period results in an annualized return of 8.18%; however, buying when a recession has ended with a predetermined sale period yields a wide range of return that ranged from 13.38% to 1.42% annualized total return. Alternatively, timing your purchase and sale with the overall peaks and valleys of the market could be more effective than trying to be exact; although they concede that peaks and valleys are realized in hindsight.

Although their data analyzed commercial real estate investor behavior, the results may have implications for the housing market. As the data suggests, attempting to exactly time your purchase and sale can yield a wide range of unpredictable results; while a long term strategy appears to be more stable. Additionally, they caution that market timing can also be affected by macroeconomic factors as well as your personal financial picture; which can reverse positive returns, even if your timing was perfect.

Anderson & Harris’ data may indicate that attempting to time your purchase may not yield the results you might expect; long term home ownership can be as good, if not better, than speculating on the exact bottom or top of the housing market. Likewise, home sellers waiting for the housing market to rebound before making a move may be missing an opportunity as well.

Obviously, you should consult financial professionals before making any financial decision; as well as consulting a Realtor® to assist you in analyzing local and neighborhood sale data. However, if you’re trying to time the housing market, consider a long term approach before making your decision.

by Dan Krell
© 2011

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 5, 2008October 5, 2019

Has the real estate market reached the turning point? (Market statistics and trends)

by Dan Krell

As indicated by the slight increase in the Consumer Confidence Index (ConferenceBoard.org), which edged up in August to 56.9, signs may point to a slightly improving economy. As consumer confidence increases, we may see home sales increase as well. Take for example the Mortgage Bankers Association reporting an increase in mortgage applications (8/27/2008 mortgagebankers.org), as well as the National Association of Realtors (Realtor.org) reporting that nationwide existing home sales have increased 3.1% in July (which is reported to be a five month high!).

Does this mean that the real estate market has turned a corner? Many remain cautious.

Other housing related reports are mixed, however. The NAR reports that although overall housing inventory (homes listed for sale) is up, single family home inventory has declined. The increased housing inventory is attributed to a sudden increase of condominium inventory.

Locally, Montgomery County single family home inventory has dropped slightly in July 2008, while sales have also dropped slightly in July from June 2008 sales (data reported by the Greater capital Area Association of Realtors). However, a few individual zip codes and neighborhoods continue to show signs of recovery by posting sales increases, price increases, or both (data derived from Metro Regional Information Systems, Inc.; MRIS.com). Neighborhoods hit hardest by foreclosures continue to lag behind in sales.

What do home buyers think? A recent Harris Interactive poll, commissioned by Move.com (news.move.com), reports that 81% of home buyers polled are anxious about the current housing market and feel there are barriers to their homeownership. However, of those polled, 44% of home buyers believe the real estate market will improve with a new president. Additionally, 41% of current homeowners polled plan to purchase a home again, 80% of all renters polled plan to purchase a home someday with 47% planning to purchase a home within the next five years.

Of those reporting barriers to homeownership, the top barriers reported were current home prices (31%), lack of down payment (28%), “lack of confidence in economy” (26%), and various personal and financial concerns. Although many polled report a barrier to home ownership, 78% of home buyers polled report that they were willing to save for down payments as well as compromise on various criteria they are searching for in their home (including neighborhood and local amenities).

So what can we expect? Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, was reported as saying in a NAR news release (8/25/2008) that home prices could increase in the few localized markets where sales have appreciably improved. He continued to say that many market area inventories remain high and will take time to shrink; however he reports that 2009 will be a more “balanced” market. He expects that “long term appreciation patterns” will eventually return.

According to MRIS’s “Trends in Housing” (mid-year 2008), foreclosures will continue to trouble the local market; the Washington, DC region’s foreclosure rate this past spring (131 per 10,000) has outpaced the national rate (87 per 10,000). However, expectations are that decreased inventory along with increased housing demand (due to job growth and relatively low interest rates) will increase market activity by early 2009. It is expected that close-in neighborhoods will see these signs of recovery first, shortly followed by the outer suburbs.

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 1, 2008. Copyright © 2008 Dan Krell.

July 30, 2008October 5, 2019

Are Real Estate Concierge Services a Fad or the Next Trend?

by Dan Krell

Have you ever used a hotel concierge? It is sometimes amazing how some provide spot-on service and great advice about where to eat and the sights to see. Once only offered to wealthy clients, real estate concierge services are becoming more popular and offered to everyone as way to provide a value added service by real estate brokers and agents (who are now trying to scrape out extra market share in a quickly shrinking real estate market).

The origin of the concierge is rooted in serving others. According to Miriam-Webster.com, the word concierge is a French word derived from Latin meaning “fellow slave.” Although historical references agree that the origin of the concierge originated in medieval times as a royal trusted advisor, the described function differs from an officer of the royal court who executes justice to a member of the court who kept the room keys of visiting nobility (concierge is often referred as the French definition of “keeper of the keys”), while fulfilling the desires of the nobility.

Concierge services developed into an indispensible part of European culture. Concierge services were found everywhere, from apartment buildings to the government; the concierge only served those who lived or worked within their service areas. Modern concierge services are commonly found in hotels and spas; because they often obtain the hard to get items for guests, concierge services often have the reputation of obtaining the unobtainable.

Concierge services (sometimes known as errand services) are becoming more popular to save us time in our hectic lives. Real estate concierge services often range in services from preparing the home for sale to moving home owners to their new home. Some real estate concierge services offer expanded services where you can find just about any service in and out of the home! In fact, one prominent real estate concierge service that is provided by a real estate broker lists over one hundred services; incredibly, the list is described as being “a partial list!”

Home builders have also begun to offer concierge services. Additionally, home builders are adding the concierge services as a “premium service” built-in to communities as a way to lure home buyers to their communities.

Offering services other than real estate, these real estate concierge services are another attempt for real estate brokers and agents to be a “one stop shop” for home related services. Needless to say, the quality and level of service of real estate concierge services may vary. Many real estate concierge services enlist the services of highly regarded local professionals to provide their services, while some real estate concierge services only “recommend” professionals who are willing to pay for the privilege of having their service listed.

Taking Ben Franklin’s advice, “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure,” it is good idea to investigate unknown service providers with local consumer advocacy groups. For example, the Montgomery County Office of Consumer Protection offers advice to consumers about some service specialties. Additionally, it is also a good idea to research the license status of service providers who are required to be licensed, certified, or insured. The Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation Division of Occupational and Professional Licensing (www.dllr.state.md.us/pq) allows you to check the status of home improvement contractors, plumbers, electricians, and HVACR services (among other professionals).