Tag: real estate

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Stories behind home sales tell of a meaningful history

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2013

housing developmentIt’s entertaining and interesting to take a look at the unusual and extremes of the housing market during the year that just ended. Besides some of the notable sales of this past year, consider the least and most expensive single family homes that sold during 2012. The stories of these two homes go beyond recent sales and economic conditions; they tell a story of suburbanization and the growth Montgomery County.

One of the lowest priced single family homes that sold in Montgomery County during 2012 was a home located on Sigsbee Road in Silver Spring. The home, located in Veirs Mill Village, was listed in the MLS (Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc) by Real Home Services and Solutions, Inc. as a foreclosure and sold for $86,199. Veirs Mill Village, a community that seemed to have its share of foreclosures in recent years, was built as part of the post World War II housing boom.

According to the Maryland Department of Transportation State Highway Administration’s “Suburbanization Historic Context and Survey Methodology” (roads.maryland.gov), Veirs Mill Village was one of the largest post war housing developments built in Maryland. There was a housing shortage immediately after World War II, and a scramble ensued to build homes to accommodate returning veterans as well as the quickly growing Federal workforce. Because of the speediness of the construction, neighborhood aesthetics was not a priority; initially, there was little thought to community, commerce, or municipal services. Built to be affordable housing, the community initially attracted young families; the average age was stated to be 21. The completed development consisted of 1,105 four room bungalows, each with a 1948 price of $8,700.

Consider that at the height of the housing market in 2006, the average home sale price in Veirs Mill Village was $390,337 and ranged from $325,000 to $485,000. The average sale price during 2012 was $218,950. And although this home on Sigsbee Road was not expanded from its original 648 sf, it is not uncommon for neighborhood home owners to have expanded these homes over the years.

In contrast, one of the most expensive homes that sold in Montgomery County during 2012 is located on West Lenox Street in Chevy Chase. The 100 year old home sold for $7,050,000. The MLS listing stated that the home, listed by Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc., was built in 1913 and was expanded and renovated in 2006.

real estateAccording to the “Suburbanization Historic Context and Survey Methodology,” the development of Chevy Chase began as part of the suburbanization of Montgomery County of the 1880’s. Although other Montgomery County developments at that time were priced for middle class civil servants (due in part to the Civil Service Act 1883) , Chevy Chase was developed to attract affluent home buyers. Chevy Chase expanded in the 1890’s when a rail line was built to encourage growth in a suburb that was considered inaccessible; and became an established affluent neighborhood when the economy flourished during the 1920’s housing boom.

The MLS listing and sale and sale price information is compiled from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS.com); the information is not an opinion of value, nor should the information be misconstrued as an appraisal. Additional neighborhood suburbanization and historical information can be found on the Maryland Department of Transportation State Highway Administration’s website (roads.maryland.gov).

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

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This is Chaos – anything can happen

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2012

housing developmentThere has been a lot that has been written about chaos theory, and some have even tried to apply it to real estate. More specifically, many have discussed the application of chaos theory to real estate investing. And even more recently there have been attempts to applying chaos theory in figuring out where housing is headed; or to be succinct – when will housing once again begin to realize consistent appreciation?

I’m not one to disappoint, but I can’t predict the future. However, my attempt to explain chaos theory may reveal how its application to the housing market is difficult at best (at least in today’s environment), yet while simultaneously is an exceptional exercise in understanding the underlying dynamics.

Chaos theory is somewhat of a misnomer; a more apt name might have been “pattern to equilibrium theory” as it’s not so much about chaos as it is about predicting natural patterns that seek equilibrium; or put another way – predicting results by looking at dynamic patterns. Equilibrium could be what we typically think it is – a pattern of a self sustaining system; or it could also mean a pattern of inertia to the system’s inevitable demise.

Simplified, chaos theory investigates the relationships and patterns of a system’s trend toward stability. The theory delves into the natural patterns of subsystems so as to predict how patterns develop and unfold to manifest themselves.

housing developmentAlthough mathematicians have been investigating the precursors for chaos theory for many years, one of its first practical applications was in trying to predict the natural patterns of the weather. So it makes sense that you might want to apply the theory to the housing market so you could figure out the best time to buy and sell. The problem in the theory’s application to the housing market is that unlike the weather, housing is not an “organic” system; housing does not follow the natural unfettered patterns of market forces. Rather, decades of intervention and policy have influenced the expressed patterns of the housing market.

But don’t get discouraged, an aspect of chaos theory termed “the butterfly effect” explains that any action, no matter how small and insignificant, can influence a larger system. So, although the housing market is not an organic system, you could theoretically investigate its related influences to work out a market trajectory. So, rather than solely considering supply and demand, you might take into account more wide ranging and complex influences, such as Greek economic policies, German parliamentary elections, EU monetary policy, etc.

By looking at observable influences on the housing market, housing contrarians have been muttering their mantra of “the sky is falling” for years. And when the housing bubble burst, they of course claimed they had it right all along, and many are still waiting for the worst. Was it a coincidence? Of course, in the early 2000’s there were influences on housing and the economy that were inconceivable (such as mortgage CDO schemes).

Chaos theory is as complex as the systems involved. We can also apply it to come up with alternate trajectories and think about what could have been. If for not some small event, someone’s seemingly insignificant decision in the past, there might not have been a housing bubble burst or great recession. But as they say hindsight is 20/20 – but that’s an entirely different theory.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Build your dream home and avoid a nightmare

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2012

custom homeThe fact that home sale inventory has dropped off compared to recent years is not news. The reduced number of homes for sale has made it more difficult for increasingly discerning home buyers to find the “perfect” home. And for some, a perfect home even goes beyond a new “spec” home or new home development; so they consider a custom home as a way to uncompromisingly have all the features they really want in their new home.

There are many pros and cons to building a custom home. As you might imagine, one clear advantage of building a custom home over buying a resale is that you can choose your home style and floor plan to fit your taste and lifestyle. Customizing a resale to fit your needs has its limitations; besides the physical limitations of the home itself, you may encounter issues with zoning and/or a HOA. Buying a spec home or a home in a new home development also has limitations; you are typically limited to the home styles and floor plans offered by the builder (and some will not comply with customization requests).

Planning to build a custom home takes time and money. Choosing the right contractor and architect is highly important. Designing the home you want requires time for permitting and construction. Weather is often an impediment; poor weather conditions can prolong the process and possibly increase your construction costs.

Next, you’ll need to find a place to build your dream home. Finding the perfect lot can sometimes be difficult, depending on the type and size of home you’re planning. Among the many things to consider: you need to make sure that the lot is zoned appropriately, as well as being large enough for the home you choose to build. Additionally, you should consider utility availability to the lot: is public water and sewer available; is natural gas available. Other issues that could affect your lot: clearing trees, easements, and/or protection areas.

Custom HomeIf an unimproved lot is not found to meet your needs, another option is to buy a “tear down.” A tear down is an old home that is torn down to build a new home on the existing lot. Of course, there are issues that need to be addressed when going this route as well. Besides encountering building issues similar to those of an unimproved lot, you may encounter additional zoning and permitting constraints with a tear down.

Unless you’re willing to pay for your project with cash, you’ll have to secure financing. Depending on your project, there are various loans are available so consult your lender about terms and qualifying criteria. Some loans may combine the acquisition of the land and the construction; and other loans could provide the loan for the construction, and then convert to a permanent mortgage.

Although it’s great feeling to build the home of your dreams, you should also consider its resale. Tastes vary, so your idea of a dream home may not be everyone else’s. A large amount of non-traditional customization could not only turn off future home buyers, but could very well hurt your sale price.

Building a custom home requires due diligence. The Maryland Home Builder Registration Unit (of the MD Office of the Attorny General)provides consumer information about purchasing new homes and the Home Builder Guaranty Fund (www.oag.state.md.us/Homebuilder/index.htm).

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.  Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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What’s your relationship with your home; how homes impact our lives

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2012
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homesHave you considered your relationship with your home?  Just like the relationships we have with our family, friends, and acquaintances, we also have relationships with inanimate objects such as our cars, computers, and our homes.  Granted, the relationships we have with our cars and homes are not the same as our human relationships, and it may sound farfetched; but if you think about it for moment, these relationships can affect our moods and lifestyles just the same.

Your relationship with your home can sometimes make you feel satisfied or frustrated, and maybe both.  But chances are that you were not always ambivalent about your home.   At one time you might have thought your home was perfect.  Or you may have decided that you were ok with the quirks in the home because you once planned to fix them.

But the reality is that over time you change: your lifestyle changes; your use of space changes.  Likewise, your home changes too: the systems become less efficient; the rooms may feel too small/large; the kitchen becomes dated, etc.

Just like your human relationships, your home requires maintenance.  Regular maintenance of your home’s systems can help assure that you will be comfortable day to day.  Ignored systems can fail when you rely on them the most, leaving you miserable and wondering about your home.  Commonly ignored systems include (but certainly not limited to) HVAC and the roof.  Having a licensed HVAC professional check the home’s furnace and air conditioning as recommended may not only ensure the system works when you need it the most, but may also help lower energy bills.  Regular inspection of the home’s roof gutters and downspouts could prevent future water penetration issues.

homeOf course, as we continually change and develop, we want our relationships to grow as well.  So, it is possible that one day you might look around your home and feel that it’s time to spice up the relationship a little – You might be thinking of some renovations, updates, and possibly expanding the home.

Unless you plan to make renovations regularly, don’t make a mistake and focus solely on making your home “trendy.”  Before you decide on a major project, experts recommend you consult with a professional interior designer and/or architect to assist in making choices that can prolong the “freshness” of the renovation.

Kitchens and bathrooms are usually where the most money is spent, and that’s because those rooms tend to get the most traffic and use.  When designing a kitchen or bathroom, it is easy to go overboard on the renovation, but even a modest refurbishment can increase your enjoyment of the home.

As you renovate the interior, don’t give the exterior the short shrift.  Upgrading the home’s windows and siding not only increases the home’s efficiency, but may also increase the home’s curb appeal when it’s time to sell.

Relationships change and sometimes end; even the most meaningful ones.  This is no different with your home.  One day you may find that although your home may have sheltered you and your family without fail for many years, you may find that your needs may have changed; you may need more or less space, or may need to live in a different city.  And just like old friends, you may one day find yourself fondly thinking about your “old” home where you once lived.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 26, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

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Housing approaches the fiscal cliff

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2012

Fiscal cliffMoving forward after the election, there are a number of events and possible legislation that could impact the real estate industry. The most imminent is the “fiscal cliff.”

The “fiscal cliff” is the term that describes the expected economic outcome of the automatic budget cuts (sequestration). Sequestration was part of a budget deal that was passed as the bipartisan Budget Control Act of 2011. Even though it is described as an economy falling off a cliff, some say it is more apt to an economy hitting a brick wall; because the sequestration will make it very difficult for the economy to expand. Others are not as pessimistic about the fiscal cliff; some describe the “cliff” as a gentle slope that may present some impediments to the economy that are not insurmountable.

Regardless of the description, there is a consensus that there will be some economic obstacles. There is an economic truth that the housing market benefits from a thriving economy, as well as suffering when the economy slows.

The Congressional Budget Office has provided warnings that a “fiscal cliff” could cause a recession in 2013 and possibly increase unemployment significantly. As we already know, a recession combined with increases in unemployment will not be good for the housing market. In a Florida Realtors® 2010 study conducted to determine causes of foreclosure in Florida, determined that there is a correlation between unemployment and foreclosure – citing a combination of increased cost of living, unemployment or decreased pay, and other factors.

To address budget deficits and avoid a fiscal cliff, various committees have convened and provided recommendations proposal for improve the budgetary process that included a number of recommendations to lower the budget deficit. One common thread in addressing budget deficits is to either eliminate or further restrict the mortgage interest deduction.

The origination of the mortgage interest deduction is not as extraordinary as you’d expect; however the fact that it has remained through tax reforms during the Reagan administration has been described as rather “remarkable.”

Fiscal cliffThe mortgage interest deduction is often described as a subsidy for the housing industry to encourage participation in market (similar to the first time homebuyer tax credits offered several years ago). Much like social security, it is a political hot potato that elected officials are hesitant to address. Some have argued for many years that the mortgage interest deduction should be eliminated since because they assert the subsidy artificially inflates home prices.

However, a National Association of Realtors® (NAR) December 1, 2010 press release, stated “The tax deductibility of interest paid on mortgages is a powerful incentive for home ownership and has been one of the simplest provisions in the federal tax code for more than 80 years…” The release cited a survey that indicated that the deduction was extremely important or very important to three-fourths of the 3,000 homeowners and renters surveyed (Realtor.org).

Several years ago, the Congressional Budget Office recommended the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction. Additionally, the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (more commonly known as the Simpson Bowles Commission) provided recommendations to reducing the mortgage interest deduction benefit from the current $1,000,000 limit to a cap of $500,000.

A resolution to the fiscal cliff may be reached before year’s end; the housing recovery depends on it.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of November 12, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.
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