Presidential election and home sales

Elections have vastly changed in mood and intensity. It used to be that the candidates debated about substantive issues looking for win-win solutions, including housing. Maybe some of you remember how both the Clinton and Dole campaigns showcased their ideas of expanding the capital gains exemption during the 1996 election. Housing and home sales doesn’t seem to be a platform issue anymore. Elections have become divisive and nasty, even among the electorate; and for many Americans, the trending (real estate) election issue is – whom is moving to Canada!

That’s right, moving to Canada. Maybe you’ve heard someone at work or at the store proclaim they are moving to Canada if “the other candidate” wins the election. The theme of moving to Canada after the election has become a mantra so much so that it’s become part of pop culture. The idea has even been satirized by the likes of South Park. And of course there is the growing number of celebrities who vow to move to Canada if the election outcome isn’t to their liking.

Of course the threat of moving to Canada is tongue in cheek (for most), or is it? Nevertheless, leave it to astute real estate agents who realized that people considering such a move is now a target market. Agent ads and blog posts popped up in recent weeks reaching out to those disaffected home owners asking for their business. Reporting for Buzfeed, Craig Silverman reported on two agents who posted such an ad on their Facebook pages (Leaving Because Of Trump? These Texas Realtors Want To Sell Your House; buzfeed.com; May13, 2016). Although both agents received a lot of attention for their seemingly whimsical posts, there was a mixed response; some did not get the humor. It was reported that one of the two agents interviewed was asked to remove her post; and of course neither reported any new business from the posts.

Every four years, people wonder if presidential elections effect the real estate market. During the 2012 election cycle, the real estate portal Movoto took it upon itself to find an answer (David Cross; Election Years Are Bad for Home Prices; movoto.com; May 12, 2012). They analyzed historical data from the California Association of Realtors® and found that there is indeed a direct effect of a presidential election on home prices (at least in California). They determined that the average home sale price during an election year is lower than that of the years preceding and following an election.

Movoto’s hypothesis was: “Presidential election years are stressful for the American people and in times of uncertainty people are less likely to take chances—this includes making large purchases such as a new house.” While the National Association of Realtors® comment on Movoto’s findings was, “We’ve observed no correlation between levels of home sales and an election year. The market responds to a wide range of economic factors, including jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence.”

Although there maybe anecdotal evidence that presidential election years affect home prices; there is no doubt that the outcome of a presidential election effects policy, which as a result affects the economy and the housing market (see Experts: Housing to Grow Steadily, But Maybe Less So if Trump, Cruz or Sanders is Elected President; Zillow.com; May 17, 2016). But no one has yet suggested that US elections would have an effect on Canada’s real estate market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2016

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

May 6, 2016September 10, 2018

Home pricing strategy and housing market shift

home pricing strategy The apparent luxury home market collapse is most likely due to an increased inventory of luxury homes, and a lack of foreign investors (who were active in the market several years ago). The impact of reduced prices is noticeable in home price indices as well, as there seems to be a consensus that there is a hint of a slowdown of price appreciation.

Corelogic’s May Home Price Insights (corelogic.com) indicated that nationwide home prices during March increased 6.7% year over year; and projects 5.7% appreciation for next March. Additionally, the report highlights twelve states that have reached new home price highs. Month over month average home prices nationwide increased 2.1%; however next month’s projection is for a gain of only 0.7%.

April’s S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (spindices.com) indicted that February home prices increased at an annual rate of 5.3%, which is roughly the same as the previous month’s index. The hot real estate markets of Portland, Seattle, and Denver realized the highest year over year gains, growing at 11.9%, 11% and 9.7% respectively. However, the national 0.2% month over month gain was not as encouraging.

David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, provided commentary about the April S&P/Case-Shiller report, saying “…Home prices continue to rise twice as fast as inflation, but the pace is easing off in the most recent numbers…While financing is not an issue for home buyers, rising prices are a concern in many parts of the country. The visible supply of homes on the market is low at 4.8 months in the last report. Homeowners looking to sell their house and trade up to a larger house or a more desirable location are concerned with finding that new house. Additionally, the pace of new single family home construction and sales has not completely recovered from the recession.”

Although the recent home price indices have not yet established negative trends, they are telling of a housing market under pressure. Local home sellers should take note that the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for the Washington DC metro area indicates a month over month -0.2% (negative two tenths of a percent) change in the average home price. The Corelogic HPI Market Condition Indicator for the Washington DC-MD-VA-WV metro area is “Overvalued.”

If you are planning a home sale during the latter half of this year, you should be extra aware of the local market trends; paying attention to competition and general inventory. Home pricing strategies that were common last year may not work to your advantage. Over pricing your home could result in driving home buyers to your competition, rather than netting a higher sales price.

Original post at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/05/06/new-home-sale-strategy-needed-as-home-prices-start-to-shift/

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April 21, 2016November 23, 2021

Coping with today’s market

It’s that time of year again; the real estate market is getting hot along with the temperature. And that’s about the only thing most are able to predict about this year’s real estate market. Since the Great Recession, early forecasts about home buying and selling trends have typically missed the mark; the trends have varied, sometimes significantly, from year to year. Notwithstanding a very active season, many will be in for a surprise; some will be pleased about their home sale, while others not so much. And if you are selling a home, I’ve provided some tips to help you cope with today’s market:

Home buyers in today’s market

The most important point to remember this year: many home buyers are looking to buy a home, but not necessarily yours. The notion that your home appeals to all home buyers is false. If your home isn’t selling as fast as you thought it would, consider stepping back for a moment to re-evaluate your home and marketing plan.

Most home buyers are looking for a “turn-key” home and won’t settle for just anything on the market. Additionally, most are not willing to spend time and money updating a home they just purchased. Know your home before marketing it and consider making repairs if your home has considerable deferred maintenance.

Prepare your home for today’s market

The next item to remember this year, is that no matter how well your home shows: be prepared for a less than complimentary home inspection. Because there are a number of systems and many components to your home; chances are that there are items that need attention, repairing, and/or replacement – which the home inspector will cheerfully point out. Home inspectors will visually inspect your home, probing structural components when necessary; a detailed report indicates their observations. Most home inspectors are not experts in all aspects of home construction; and commonly recommend other professionals to examine items more closely.

As a home seller, you should understand that buyers in today’s market are under pressure about the investment they are undertaking; and are willing to walk away based on the home inspection findings. Sometimes, it’s not what – but how it’s said that will rattle buyers. Regardless, an uncomplimentary report does not have to blow up the deal. Be prepared for extra rounds of negotiating after the home inspection. Every transaction is different, and your agent should provide guidance on what’s reasonable and appropriate.

A final thought: don’t get greedy, but don’t leave money on the table either. Although inventory remains an issue in a number of areas, don’t feel compelled to over price your home based on the lack of homes for sale. However, don’t be complacent with the “average” home sale price of the neighborhood either. When comparing recent neighborhood sales, you should make pricing adjustments (plus and minus) depending on differences in your home’s age, amenities, size and other factors.

A word of caution: There is a growing trend in the reliance on automated valuations by real estate agents. AVM (automated valuation models) are helpful, but not always accurate. These reports are based on public information about your home and may not include correct information. If your agent recommends a sale price based an automated valuation, you should review the report attentively. If the report confidence level is low to medium, be prepared to carefully review the report and comparables, making adjustments as needed.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2016/04/21/home-sale-tips-on-coping-with-todays-market/

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January 22, 2016December 13, 2022

Selling your home is always about the price

Pricing a home for a sale is not always easy. There is an abundance of empirical research that has confirmed the many variables that affect sales price. Some influences are manageable and some are not. The top factors to consider when pricing your home to sell include location, condition, features, and timing.

Your home’s physical location is one of the top factors that will affect its sale price. Although home prices vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, your home’s location within the neighborhood could also impact the sale price. Homes located on commuter routes typically sell for less because of the traffic and noise. Even homes located just off of the thoroughfare can be impacted by the perception of traffic and noise; the sale price could be lower than a similar home situated further away from the main road.

A home can sell for more when located close to neighborhood amenities; however, the price could drop if perceived too close. Neil Metz’s research (Effect of Distance to Schooling on Home Prices. The Review of Regional Studies 45.2 (2015):151-171.) indicated that homes located close to schools tend to sell for more. However, the opposite was found with homes within 1,000 feet from schools; the home sale price decreased as the distance from the school closed in from 1,000 feet (probably due to congestion and noise). This effect is typically true for other neighborhood amenities such as shopping areas.

Repairing and upgrading your home prior to listing can increase the sale price. In contrast, deferred maintenance can not only deter home buyers – it could attract low offers; especially if the home has been on the market for a lengthy period. Many home buyers are looking for a “turn-key” home, where they don’t have to be concerned about immediate maintenance; while some are willing to put in the time and effort to personalize a home. If you’re making updates to your home, consider that the quality and installation of upgrades can impacts price as well; cheap fixtures and sloppy workmanship can have a similar affect as deferred maintenance.

Your home’s amenities can also impact the sale price. For example, features such as a finished basement or deck can be appealing and add value. Even green amenities can impact sales price. Research conducted by Cadena and Thomson (An Empirical Assessment of the Value of Green in Residential Real Estate. The Appraisal Journal 83.1 (Winter 2015): 32-40.) concluded that homes that were designated “green” increased sale price by 1%, while certified green homes increased sale price about 2%; however, energy efficient features increased sales price by about 6%!

Finally, your sales price can be affected by the timing of the sale. Miller, Sah, Sklarz, and Pampulov (Is there seasonality in home prices-evidence from CBSAs. Journal of Housing Research, 22(1) (2013), 1-15) conducted a comprehensive study of home sales that occurred in 138 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs are geographic population centers set by the Office of Management and Budget for use by Federal agencies in collecting, and publishing statistics) from February 2000 to April 2011. They concluded that monthly price changes can vary through the year; and homes that sell during summer months (April through September) typically sell for more than homes that sell during the winter (October through March). However, they point out that the seasonality effect could be due to weather; there is less price variance in areas with less temperature variation.

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January 7, 2016November 23, 2021

Home pricing strategies focal point of 2016 housing market

2016 housing market hinges on home prices.

A home selling season has not been anticipated so much by home sellers since 2013. It’s not that 2015 was a bad year for housing, because it wasn’t. It’s that many home owners who have been wanting to sell since 2010 (some because of being underwater) may be in position to make the long awaited move.

A central reason for the reanimation of the housing market is, of course, home prices. Several major indices concur that home prices have made significant improvements through 2015. S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (spindices.com) reported a 5.2% annual increase in October, while the FHFA House Price Index (fhfa.gov) revealed a 6.1% year over year increase in October. November’s CoreLogic HPI (corelogic.com) indicated a 6.2% year over year increase and project a 5.4% year over year home price increase next November. And as much as home values had healthy gains nationwide, the local Washington DC metro region’s home annual price increases were more modest: 3.1% according to CoreLogic, and about 1.7% according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

home equity — US Home Equity Report (from corelogic.com)

Although negative equity continues to burden many home owners, the good news is that the number of underwater homes is decreasing. Although home prices continue to edge higher throughout the nation, there are many who are still underwater. According to CoreLogic’s Equity Report Q3 2015 (corelogic.com), 256,000 homes regained equity. And although 92% of mortgaged homes now have equity, about 4.1 million homes continue to be underwater. 17.6% of mortgaged homes are considered “under-equitied” (less than 20% equity), while 2.2% are “near negative equity” (less than 5% equity). 29.3% of underwater homes in the US are located in five states: Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Rhode Island, and Maryland. While 87.9% of Maryland mortgaged homes have equity, 95.5% of mortgage homes in Washington DC have equity. However, the local Washington DC metro region (DC – VA – MD) records 89.2% of mortgaged homes with equity – leaving about 10.8% of mortgaged homes underwater.

If you’re selling your home this spring, you want to capitalize the market. Although you want to benefit from the current low inventory; realize that by late spring, the housing market gets into full swing and inventory surges while your competition intensifies. Also consider the home buyer: many consider themselves savvy consumers who are money conscious and more fiscally responsible than their 2006 counterparts. Most home buyers want homes that have new or recent updates, including systems (such as HVAC and roof). There are few who are willing to make repairs or upgrade homes they are moving into; much less budget for a new roof or furnace in the first years of home ownership.

The sensible way to make the most of your sale is to have a plan, and pricing your home correctly should be the focal point. Don’t fall into the trap of pricing your home by comparing national price increases or worse yet – media reports of hot markets. Real estate is a local phenomenon and you should collect data within your neighborhood (the closer to your home the better). Your real estate agent should be able to produce a detailed market analysis and explain how the comps vary and correspond with each other and to your home. Consider your home’s condition and amenities. You may have to adjust your price if your home is in need “TLC.” However, updates to the kitchen, bathrooms, windows, roof, flooring, and HVAC not only add appeal but also add value.

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