Real estate futurism

real estate futurism
Real estate futurism (infographic from nar.realtor).

Humans are fascinated with the future and technology.  Whether it’s the promise of hope and deliverance, or the warning of a dystopian nightmare, there will always be a continued conjecture of the future.  And it’s no different with real estate.  Real estate experts also like to dream about the future and technology, and depict real estate futurism

Housingwire is one the foremost authorities on anything real estate and housing.  It also is a leader in reporting about real estate technology too. This year’s reporting of Housingwire’s Tech100 Awards caught my attention.  But it wasn’t about some shiny new technology that is touted to be “the next big thing.”  Instead, it was the real estate futurism prediction and where real estate technology is headed (Expert: Here’s where real estate tech will be in five years, And will AI replace humans?; housingwire.com December 21, 2018).

Although the article was only one expert’s opinion of real estate futurism, it’s telling nonetheless.  The expert sees that tech assisted appointments and automatic doors are technological advancements.  Additionally, home buyers will be using virtual reality to view homes.  He sees that consumer searches are geo-located. Big data will know what they want based on their online behavior, and so on.  If his list of the industry’s future tech sounds as if it came from the early 2000’s, you’re not alone.  If you think about it, much of this five-year tech advancement prediction has already been around in one form or another.

This expert’s vision of real estate tech in the not-so-distant future is basically more of the same.  It makes you wonder if the real estate industry is focused on using shiny things to get people’s attention (but really doesn’t do much to make the transaction easier and safer).  This interview also signifies that real estate futurism is relegated to existing tech. In other words, real estate technology is not exclusive unto itself, but is only the application of existing technology. 

Predicting the future is difficult and requires the ability to depict a new paradigm.  Spyros Makridakis, an expert in understanding future technology, writes that tech advancement depends on four things; (1) the benefits of the technology, (2) funding to create/implement the technology; (3) growth in funding the technology; and (4) the urgency to solve a problem (Forecasting the Impact of Artificial Intelligence, Part 5:The Emerging and Long-Term Future; The International Journal of Applied Forecasting; 2018; issue 51 p36-41).  Makridakis’ vision of future technology will not be about shiny things that make you go “ohh,” but instead how you interface with technology.

Makridakis’ prediction for the future is that you won’t be using computer screens like you do today. Instead, you will have a type of wrist device that projects holographic images that will “blend virtual and augmented” reality.  These devices will be like your smartphone but allow holographic communications.  Additionally, brain-computer interfaces will allow you “unlimited access to computer power.”  He believes that this paradigm shift will affect how you work and interact socially.  He also believes that robots will become personal assistants and be assigned the boring and uninteresting work.

Real estate futurism based on Makridakis’ futuristic thinking could mean a slightly different home buying and selling process.  Your augmented brain-computer interface will allow you to process information about a home significantly faster, as well as digitally sign AI prepared contracts and closing documents. And instead of scrolling through pictures or wearing a virtual reality mask, you will be walking through holograms of homes right in our living rooms projected from your wrist.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/12/29/real-estate-futurism

By Dan Krell. Copyright © 2018.

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Real estate big tech

The business of real estate seems to be turning away from actually selling homes and wants to be housing big tech.  Nothing is as it seems.  Real estate companies are now technology companies, and technology companies want more of your information to control your opinion and behavior.

How much control should big tech have over what you think and do?  It’s a compelling controversy that is currently being debated.  It’s not clear when the discussion exactly began, but there have been many who have been wary of big tech for decades.  Even President Eisenhower had something to say about it in his second 1961 farewell speech (the first being famous for his warning of the military-industrial complex) he also warned. “…we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

Once called paranoid, those who feared big tech are being vindicated by the acknowledgments of data collection and leaks to third party users.  Additionally, reports of censorship and behavioral control are slowly making its way to public awareness.  Sounding like a movie plot about a dystopian future, consider the internal Google video that was leaked by The Verge earlier this year (Google’s Selfish Ledger is an unsettling vision of Silicon Valley social engineering; theverge.com; May 17, 2018).  The leaked video (seen here) discusses the use of data to not only change opinions and shape viewpoints that correspond with the company’s values, but to change behavior and shape society to “a directed result.”

Imagine being told where to buy a home, and which real estate services to use based on your behavioral data.  Big tech’s “guiding” of real estate consumers to homes and neighborhoods based on behavioral modeling algorithms seems like it could save time and effort for the consumer.  But it could also be considered steering, which is considered to be a fair housing no-no.

real estate big tech
Real estate tech (infographic from nar.realtor).

But big tech wants more of your data, at best to improve modeling algorithms.  According to a report in the Wall Street Journal (Facebook to Banks: Give Us Your Data, We’ll Give You Our Users; wsj.com; August 6, 2018), Facebook has been in conversations with banks to access users’ accounts and transactions.  The social media platform denied the story the next day.  However, the Wall Street Journal reporting by Emily Glazer, Deepa Seetharaman and AnnaMaria Andriotis is compelling given the report’s sources.  Some experts are also talking about Facebook wanting to become a consumer marketplace.

Zillow is also allegedly expanding its data usage.  Zillow announced this week of their acquisition of Mortgage Lenders of America.  The purchase is said to boost Zillow’s “Offers” program, offering mortgages for home buyers making offers on the site.  However, GeekWire reported (Zillow acquires Mortgage Lenders of America, posts $325M in Q2 revenue, up 22%; geekwire.com; August 6, 2018) Zillow’s CEO Spencer Rascoff as saying in the company’s second-quarter earnings call:

We’re taking our huge advantages, which are our audience and our brand and our resources, and expanding into other business vertically… .”

And it’s not just big tech that wants your data.  Traditional companies are realizing the potential of behavioral modeling and guiding consumer behavior.  Inman reported earlier this year that co-founder Gary Keller proclaimed Keller Williams a tech company (What the hell is Keller Williams doing? Lingering questions from the Vision Speech; inman.com; February 28, 2018).  Keller proclaimed:

“We are a technology company. No. 1 that means we build the technology. No. 2 that means we hire the technologists … We are not a real estate company anymore.”

Big tech is losing touch with the average consumer.  Home buyers and sellers don’t want to be told what to do.  Rather, they want to make organic decisions. While large real estate brokers seem to be moving away from actually selling homes to be real estate big tech, home buyers and sellers are turning to human real estate agents.   Instead of algorithms, buyers and sellers value trusted Realtors to help with the process.

By Dan Krell.
Copyright © 2018.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/08/12/real-estate-big-tech/

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Technology is the new real estate

I recently wrote about companies that are going through identity crises. Are they real estate companies or are they technology companies? Regardless, the big name real estate disruptors have changed the industry. They have given home buyers control of their home search. They have also given home sellers choices of real estate services and commissions. But the recent trend of real estate companies touting themselves as technology companies may be a signal that large real estate brokerages want more change. But are they mistaking the map for the territory?

Are real estate brokers still interested in selling homes?

technology and real estate
Technology (infographic from nar.realtor)

Last November, the real estate brokerage Compass made headlines because of its ability to raise massive capital investments. In a Compass press release, the company announced raising $100 million in capital (Compass Raises $100 Million in New Investment Round; prnewswire.com; November 8, 2017). The colossal investment comes one year after raising $75 million in capital. The capital is to be used for expanding brokerage offices in new markets as well as “building new technology.”

Compass’ vision is to be “the world’s largest real estate platform.” The press release quoted an investor saying:

“Compass has proven that its technologically advanced platform is incredibly attractive to the industry’s top agents…Their position at the intersection of technology and real estate gives them the unique opportunity to be the single largest holder of real estate data, ushering in a new realm of possibilities for agents and clients alike.”

In a similar move, RE/MAX announced this week of its purchase of booj, a technology company. In a February 26th RE/MAX press release, the acquisition is touted as means to “…deliver core technology solutions designed for and with RE/MAX affiliates. The objective: technology platforms that create a distinct competitive edge for RE/MAX brokerages and agents…” (RE/MAX Takes Bold Step to Provide Best-in-Class Technology; remax.com).

Is the shift to  being a technology company about revenue?

It would seem that recent industry moves may indicate that real estate brokers would prefer to be technology companies. However, the latest trend may be more about generating revenue, raising capital and investor relations than it is about selling homes.

Lizette Chapman’s report on the matter is revealing (Tech Startup or Real-Estate Broker? Fidelity Values Compass at $2 Billion; bloomberg.com; November 8, 2017). Chapman likens Compass to Redfin saying that the company “is almost certainly unprofitable,” although generating massive revenue. In her reporting, Chapman quoted a seasoned real estate agent who was briefly with Compass, “The technology was mostly marketing tools…It was sleek, but I can’t say it was different from anything else out there.”

Although many home buyers and sellers turn to the internet for housing information, they don’t wholly rely on technology when choosing real estate services. According to the National Association of Realtors 2017 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (nar.realtor), a majority of home buyers and sellers hired agents with whom they worked in the past, or were referred by friends and family.

The problem with technology is that humans are the ghosts in the machine. The human element, contrary to technology, is erratic, messy, and highly subjective. The human element remains at the core of home buying and selling.

Many consumers recognize that tech and the internet are tools that are often used as gimmicks to get their business. Technology is not a substitute for an experienced real estate professional who can also empathize along the home buying/selling process. The turn to tech only underscores that residential real estate is still a personal business.

Choosing a real estate agent

Choosing a real estate agent is much like searching for a home.  It is an objective and subjective process.

The real estate agent is supposed to be a fiduciary that is supposed to protect your rights and assets.   A real estate agent is supposed to be honest and act with integrity.  They should act in your best interest.

The quality of an agent is not dependent on the firm. Quality agents are affiliated with almost all brokers. If you haven’t already, ask friends and family for their recommendations.

Prepare questions to interview several agents.  The purpose of the interview is to learn about the agent’s professionalism, training, and knowledge base.  You get to hear about their experience, and get a feel how they interact with you.  Besides asking about their experiences, ask how many years they have been selling homes, and if they full time agents.

If you live in an area where agents are licensed in multiple jurisdictions, ask about their experience in the area you plan to buy/sell. Just because they have a license to sell homes doesn’t mean they have extensive experience in that jurisdiction.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2018/03/02/technology-new-real-estate/

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2018

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Industry disruptors changing real estate

Reat estate industry disruptors
Reat estate industry disruptors (infographic from nar.realtor)

Buying and selling homes hasn’t really changed much over the years.  It still requires a buyer and a seller.  Getting them together often requires a real estate agent or broker.  Sure, technology has changed the brokerage relationship dramatically.  It has also forced players in the real estate industry to change or get out of the business.  A new trend of real estate brokers are embracing technology like never before.  Will these real estate industry disruptors change how real estate services will be provided in the future?  Will these industry disruptors drive a new enthusiasm for “real estate technology brokers“?

One the largest players in the real estate industry is Zillow.  Although Zillow has a number of services that can bring home buyers and sellers together, they are mostly a technology company that serves to provide consumers information.  The company generates revenue by selling services to real estate brokers and agents, as well as mortgage companies and loan officers.  Many consumers visit Zillow’s websites to view information about homes for sale or rent that are listed with brokers or the homes’ owners.  Consumers don’t pay Zillow a fee or commission for the service.

Over the years, many have talked about how Zillow’s technological influence will predict the real estate industry’s future.  Those real estate prophets foretold a time when home buyers and sellers will be able to do business on the internet without a real estate agent or broker.  But in reality, Zillow’s influence only cemented the necessity of a broker or agent to facilitate the transaction.  Zillow’s success has generated millions of dollars in revenue, but the company has struggled to post an annual net profit.

Redfin is another real estate company that has a significant internet presence.  Some think of Redfin as a technology firm offering real estate services.  But the reality is that it is a real estate brokerage built around technology.  Redfin has built its brand, and went public this year.  Although the company generates millions in revenue, the Seattle Times reported that Redfin’s IPO offering indicated that the company has yet to post an annual net profit and has accumulated losses of $613.3 million (Seattle real estate company Redfin files to go public; seattletimes.com; June 30, 2017).

Companies like Zillow and Redfin are not the only players in real estate know for technology, but they may be the most well-known.  These companies are part of a new generation of companies that strive for a huge internet footprint to drive business.  But Zillow and Redfin demonstrate that technology in and of itself is not a guarantee of profitability, nor has it been an absolute “game changer” for the real estate industry.  Instead, technology has been the catalyst for change.

Industry disruptors and real estate

Consumers probably don’t realize the subtleties, but the rapid changes in real estate technology has forced real estate agents and brokers to change how they engage their clients.  Since companies like Zillow and other real estate aggregator sites have propagated the internet, the role of the real estate agent and broker has shifted away from being the source of information to being the source of a meaningful analysis.  Agents and brokers have also shifted their roles from information keepers to transaction managers.

What better way to be a real estate change agent and industry disruptor than to build a business around technology.   Redfin is probably the most poised to make major impact to how consumers are served in the real estate industry.  With all of its tech goodness, Redfin’s contribution to the industry hasn’t been as much technological than financial.  The brand will likely be known for being instrumental in reducing real estate commissions.  In markets where Redfin has been successful in establishing its brand, agents have been under significant pressure to lower listing commissions and/or offer buyer rebates.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2017/11/26/industry-disrupt…ging-real-estate/

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

Blockchain, Bitcoin and real estate

blockchain
How will blockchain help the real estate transaction? (infographic from floridarealtors.org)

Is a Bitcoin mortgage in your future?  Probably not.  Mortgages will not be in Bitcoin in the near future.  But that doesn’t mean that the blockchain technology that underlies cryptocurrency won’t be making the real estate transaction cheaper and more efficient.

Brad Finkelstein reported on the difficulties of a Bitcoin mortgage (Virtually No Chance Soon for Any Bitcoin Denominated Mortgages; National Mortgage News, 2014).  Cryptocurrencies have a history of volatility, Bitcoin most recently lost about a third of its value (see: Bitcoin at crossroads after shedding more than $27 billion in value; marketwatch.com; September 14, 2017).  Instability of the currency is a major issue for a thirty-year mortgage.  Finkelstein stated that such short-term losses could cause the mortgage holder to “lose their shorts,” and cause the borrower to default.  He also pointed out that regulatory hurdles will be difficult to transcend, stating that mortgage rules and closing disclosures are calculated in dollars.  Not to mention the difficulty of appraising a home’s value in Bitcoin.  Additionally, all parties that are part of the transaction (such as appraisers) need to accept payment in Bitcoin.

Finkelstein also pointed out other cryptocurrency flaws.  Unlike currencies such as the euro or yen, cryptocurrencies are not backed by a government that guarantee an exchange rate.  Because of the lack of government backing, cryptocurrency values are easily manipulated.  Cryptocurrencies have also been associated with illicit internet transactions.

Although cryptocurrency mortgages may not be feasible, Finkelstein noted that “cash” transactions conducted in Bitcoin is a possibility.  Luke Stangel reported on a Miami mansion recently listed for sale in Bitcoin (Brother, Can You Spare a Bitcoin? Miami Mansion Is Listed for About 1,400 Bitcoins; realtor.com; September 6, 2017).  Two real estate agents interviewed about the sale stated that some aspects of the transaction may still be traditional, such as an escrow being deposited as well as title transfer.  However, the transferred funds would be Bitcoin.

Stengel’s report suggested that the interest in conducting real estate deals in cryptocurrencies is to speed up the sales process and provide a secure transaction.  However, because of the associated processes that occur during a transaction, the timing of such a transaction may not differ much from any other cash transaction.  Security is another issue and can be debated as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have had their share of hacking too.

With so many issues and hurdles, cryptocurrency on its own may not be the (immediate) future of real estate.  However, its underlying technology is of interest.  The technology that makes Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies possible is called blockchain.

Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize the real estate transaction by reducing the time and cost needed for processing a mortgage and title.  Blockchain technology is essentially a chain of blocks.  Each block records and holds information.  When a block is recorded, it is encrypted and cannot be changed.  The recorded information can be currency (such as a Bitcoin transaction), records, contracts, etc.  The draw to blockchain is that it is decentralized, making it difficult to corrupt and easy to restore.  Additionally, retrieving information is much faster because the chain of information is essentially available at your fingertips.

Many are skeptical of blockchain technology.  Not so much because of its disruptive potential, but because it is not impervious to problems.  Some issues include security, cost and complexity.   A revealing critique of blockchain was written by Jason Bloomberg (Eight Reasons To Be Skeptical About Blockchain; forbes.com; May 31, 2017).

However, blockchain advocates still maintain that the technology provides ease of access and secure recording of blocks of information.  The touted benefits are claimed to decrease the time of the average real estate transaction, and reduce the cost to the consumer as well.

Original published at https://dankrell.com

Copyright© Dan Krell
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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.