When perusing the daily economic indicators- in particular the housing indicators something does not seem quite right. The market is obviously volatile (as can be witnessed by the alternating positive and negative reports), but it appears it has become fickle too. Of interest is default and foreclosure data, where it seems conflicting data is now being reported almost simultaneously.
The Wall Street Journal (April 19, 2010; Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Again) reported LPS Applied Analytics data indicating that the number of homes in foreclosure fell in the first quarter of 2010. In addition, the number of delinquencies fell to a level that has not been seen since the beginning of the mortgage crisis.
The REO Insider (April 21, 2010; California Defaults Drop 4.2% in Q110: MDA DataQuick) supports the WSJ report by reporting MDA DataQuick data indicating a reduction of 4.2% in California defaults in the first quarter of 2010. The report indicates that the crisis is shifting from low to mid priced homes to the more expensive neighborhoods.
Contrast the previous reports with this MarketWatch report of a lingering foreclosure market (April 12, 2010; Foreclosure inventories hit record). The report cited LPS (Lender Processing Services) data that indicated this past February’s foreclosure rate of 3.31% was a 51.1% increase from February 2009. This report cited an increase of delinquencies in February 2010 as compared to February 2009 (the national delinquency rate was reported as being 10.2%); and the percentage of new problem loans is at a five year high. (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/inventory-of-foreclosed-homes-hits-record-2010-04-12)
It’s ok to be confused, many people are. Although the raw data may be similar (or possibly the same), differences in the reporting may be due to the type of analyses and data points that are used. Certainly this may not help home buyers and sellers clearly understand what is happening in the market; contradicting data reports may contribute to home buyer’s and seller’s analysis paralysis.
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by Dan Krell. © 2010