Herding behavior and real estate decisions

Have you ever wondered why real estate trends develop? When we’re buying and selling a home, we like to think we act rationally and with intention. However, our decision making is influenced externally. We are affected by the attitudes of the experts, family and friends, from whom we solicit advice. We are also consciously and unconsciously influenced by information we get from TV, the internet, social media, news papers, and even from eavesdropping conversations. Your decision making may be based on others’ behaviors that signaled it was the correct thing to do, and in turn magnifies and strengthens the signal to others – which is described as herding behavior.

Herding behavior plays a large role in our daily lives, as well as in our real estate choices and conclusions. Decisions about home buying and selling, which agent to hire, sales prices, and even whether or not we should default on our mortgage can be influenced by herding behaviors.

A 2013 study of herding behavior in strategic default revealed significant findings about our vulnerability to information (Luchtenberg & Seiler (2013).The effect of exogenous information signal strength on herding. Review of Behavioral Finance, 5(2),153-174). To refresh your memory, strategic default (allowing a home to go to foreclosure when financially able to pay the mortgage) became a significant trend that was widely covered in the media during 2010-2012. Luchtenberg & Seiler’s research into decision making and herding behavior suggested that those who are susceptible to information can be easily swayed. Their findings among professionals revealed that low consensus information (“weak information signals”) caused herding when asked to make a personal choice; while high consensus information (“strong information signals”) caused herding when providing advice to a friend.

The notion that the housing and financial crises were caused by herding behavior is not new. However, economist Christian Hott researched if housing bubbles are caused by herding behavior (Hott, C. (2012). The influence of herding behaviour on house prices. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 5(3),177-198). Citing others, Hott explains that herding behaviors are formed by those who are “imperfectly informed” and “learn from the decisions” of others; and that people tend to “overestimate the likelihood of an event” to occur to them when they hear it happened to someone else (expecting the same experience that someone else had). Although Hott concluded that herding was not the only contributor to the housing market collapse, and suggested that mortgage banking was also likely responsible; the findings indicated that herding behavior does play a role in home price fluctuations and housing bubbles.

Cognitive dissonance may also be at work to reinforce your herding behaviors. You may act on information that is not widely acknowledged just because the source is significant to you (such as a relative, close friend or co-worker). And the stronger your belief in the information, the more likely you will in turn confidently give the same advice to others, even though it may be inaccurate and/or irrational.

Breaking away from the herd is difficult; buying and selling a home may not seem to be a rational process – even when confronted with facts. People don’t always base decision of logical choices, but rather base decisions on psycho-emotional needs and/or fears (such as status, acceptance, and avoidance of failure). However, seeking balanced information and becoming aware of your motivations may improve your decision making.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/09/30/herding-behavior-can-interfere-with-real-estate-decisions/

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

September 3, 2015November 23, 2021

Real estate agents, emotional intelligence, and sale price

Can real estate agents with high emotional intelligence get you a higher sale price?

When it comes to selling a home, the prescribed course of action is to set the right listing price and prepare the home to be shown. Real estate gurus proclaim these as the two most important items to making the most money from your home sale. And although these are widely accepted goals to getting your home on the market, recent research may actually counter the conventional wisdom about pricing and staging; while a new line of thinking suggests that you’re choosing the wrong agent too.

Staging, as we know it, has been a staple of home sales for almost forty years. And listing agents almost always discuss it during their listing presentation. Research has already proclaimed that furnished homes sell in less time than vacant homes (see Chien-Chih Peng’s study published in the June 22nd 2004 issue of The Appraisal Journal), but does staging add perceived value to the price? Well, Lane, Seiler, and Seiler (2015. The impact of staging conditions on residential real estate demand. Journal of Housing Research, 24(1), 21-35) conducted the first study to determine the virtues of home staging. Their results suggested that home staging does have some impact on the home buying process, as you might expect; “…we find a neutral wall color and good furnishings do significantly influence a buyer’s perceived livability and overall opinion of the home.” However, the study’s main conclusion was that staging a home does not significantly impact sale price.

If you think that pricing a home is a straight forward process of gathering and extrapolating the latest neighborhood data to your home, think again. There may be more going on in your head than you realize. A recent study by Loveland, Mandel, and Dholakia (2014. Understanding homeowners’ pricing decisions: An investigation of the roles of ownership duration and financial and emotional reference points. Customer Needs and Solutions, 1(3), 225-240) suggested that home sellers make different home pricing decisions based on the length of ownership, anticipation of financial gain, and emotional experiences in the home. It seems that the longer you have owned your home combined with a greater financial gain or positively associated memories, may incline you to over-price your listing and likely maintain a higher price; while those who have a shorter time of ownership combined with less financial gain or bad memories price more reasonably, and are more likely to make larger price adjustments.

So maybe getting the most money for your home comes down to your agent. After all, research confirms that experienced real estate agents sell homes faster and for more money than rookie agents. And yet, subjective conceptions of agent traits may guide you to choose your agent, regardless if your assumptions are valid or erroneous.

Forget savvy, forget aggressiveness, forget connectedness, or any preconceived notion about what personality traits your agent needs. A recent pilot study of licensed real estate agents by Swanson and Zobisch (2014. Emotional intelligence understanding among real estate professionals. Global Journal of Business Research, 8(5), 9-16.) suggested that the key underlying trait for real estate success and financial gain is emotional intelligence (EI). The concept of EI is complex, and is often confused with typical personality traits such as sanguinity or purpose. Rather, EI is the ability to be aware of, and command emotions in oneself and others. Those with EI are thought to be empathetic and able to acknowledge responsibility for actions and emotions. Additionally, those with high EI are likely to better understand and manage others’ motivations – which is fundamental to negotiation.

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

July 23, 2015May 21, 2019

Bait and switch tactics by real estate agents

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC.gov) states in its Advertising FAQ’s: A Guide for Small Business, “It’s illegal to advertise a product when the company has no intention of selling that item, but instead plans to sell a consumer something else, usually at a higher price…”, when describing “bait and switch” advertising.

The term “bait and switch” is sometimes bandied about by disgruntled consumers, when referring to their encounters with real estate agents. Although the scenarios depicted by the annoyed consumers require legal scrutiny to determine if the situations meet the definition of bait and switch as described by the FTC, it makes you wonder about what some agents are doing and/or saying to get business.

Bait and switch complaints are often about homes that are advertised for rent or sale, but are found to be off market after calling agent. These listings are often the result of listing syndication gone awry; or worse, “scraped” listing information (Internet scraping is when website data is taken and collected, often without authorization) reposted by an unauthorized website to attract traffic away from the website of origin.

Scraped listing information can float around cyberspace for months or years after a home has sold. Although there has always been an element of out of date listing information found on the internet; sham listings and unauthorized postings of listings used to lure consumers, are frequently cited by both consumers and agents because the information is often misleading or incorrect. And although some responsibility may be placed on the workings of the internet; some real estate agents may be to blame for using questionable advertising practices to get their phone ringing to attract home buyers. Such practices include: advertising other agents’ listings as their own, or advertising homes that are off the market.

The MLS syndicates and distributes home listing information across the internet to authorized websites, and updates the listings to maintain accuracy and integrity of the MLS. Although the internet seemed to coalesce for a brief time to present reliable home listings and other real estate information, while deterring scammers and rogue websites; the recent surge in home sales and other economics may be responsible for a return to a “wild west” atmosphere in cyberspace. This year’s reshuffling of MLS data access to major real estate portals, forcing some sites to find missing information elsewhere, is likely to have added some confusion.

Home buyers aren’t the only ones complaining; as some home sellers have similar complaints, saying they’ve been misled. Sometimes the complaint is that their agent “promised” a high sale price, only to be coerced to reduce the price at a later time; or the agent over-promised services that were never delivered.

It must be said that many buyer and seller complaints stem from their dissatisfaction, rather than an actual breach of ethics; and yet many legitimate ethical breaches go unreported. Regardless, it is unfortunate that some real estate agents resort to questionable sales tactics to attract buyers and sellers; and either learn the tactics from real estate trainers, and/or develop them on their own and share with other agents. Even though a Realtors® Code of Ethics exists to guide professional behavior and business practices, some have a “catch me if you can” attitude.

Due diligence, on your part, can make your home buying or selling experience increasingly trouble free and more enjoyable.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2015/07/23/bait-and-switch-tactics-by-real-estate-agents/

By Dan Krell

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

July 17, 2015November 23, 2021

Real estate horror stories question the limits of seller disclosure

Property disclosure laws are mostly straightforward about making known the physical condition of a home that’s for sale. However, whether or not to disclose other material facts, that may include events that occurred in and around the home, is not always clear. Material facts about a home are often described as information that may sway a home buyer’s decision about the purchase or purchase price. Some of the more familiar material fact cases that are typically reported in the news include haunted homes and unruly neighbors. Yet, these two recent accounts have again raised the question and debate about what the seller and the real estate agent is obligated to disclose.

Sounding like a plot of a horror movie, it is the real estate horror story of a New Jersey family. Philadelphia’s WPVI-TV (New Jersey family says they are being stalked at new home; 6abc.com; June 22, 2015) reported on a family that was allegedly stalked through creepy and threatening letters. The new home owners started receiving these letters several days after closing on their million dollar home.

The letters were described as written by the “Watcher,” who claimed to be the latest of his family to watch the home with such statements as the home has been “the subject of my family for decades…” Other letter statements include “Why are you here? I will find out…” And, “I am pleased to know your names now and the name of the young blood you have brought to me.”

According to Tom Haydon, who reported on the lawsuit for NJ Advance Media (Lawsuit: ‘Bring me young blood,’ stalker told Westfield home buyers;nj.com; June 19, 2015), the new owners were so disturbed by the letters that they never moved into their new home; and have been trying to sell it. The family is suing the seller alleging that the seller knew about the “Watcher” because the seller did not disclose that they allegedly received a similar letter prior to closing.

You’ve heard about “Snakes in a Plane?” This next story is about an Annapolis MD family who experienced “snakes in a house.” David Collins reported for Baltimore’s WBAL-TV (Snake-infested Annapolis home rattles owners; wbaltv.com; June 5, 2015) about the snake infested home. Detailing the new owners’ nightmare; they said they used a machete as defense against snakes that reportedly dropped from ceilings, and slithered from the walls.

To rid the home of the snakes, the owners described how they ripped out walls, and tore up the ground around the foundation. However the report indicated that “experts” told the owners gutting the home may not guarantee the snakes would return because the snake pheromones and musk could attract new snakes; and that the home should be left vacant for fifteen years to rid the home of the musky odors.

The new owners allege that their insurance will not cover a claim, nor is their mortgage lender willing to help. The new owners are suing the real estate agent and broker for allegedly not disclosing the snakes; there are also allegations that the tenants who lived in the home prior to the sale, moved out because of snakes.

Legal experts across the country have weighed in on these extraordinary stories, only to illustrate how a seller’s obligation to disclose varies regionally. If you are selling a home and have questions about your obligation to disclose, consult your real estate agent and your attorney.

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

July 9, 2015November 23, 2021

Are you feeling lucky? Belief in luck may boost home sale

Luck is not an attribute that real estate agents will talk about during their listing interview. It’s true. Agents are apt to discuss many things, such as their success, their view of the market, and hopefully what they will do for your listing; but they won’t acknowledge that luck, or serendipity, may have had something to do with the success of some of their transactions. Recent research indicates that luck is actually an important characteristic in sales; and some are “luckier” than others.

Joël Le Bon, Professor of Marketing at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, has been studying the relationship between sales and luck for some time. He recently discussed his research for the Harvard Business Review (Why the Best Salespeople Get So Lucky; hbr.org; April 13, 2015) saying, “…downplaying the power of luck, you stand to fall behind competitors who have learned how to manage it.”

That’s right – managing (or provoking) luck. Even though many “de-emphasize luck” and focus on tangible and measurable actions, Le Bon’s studies show that the combination of the belief in luck and specific sales behaviors have a mutual positive relationship. More precisely: believing in luck has a positive effect on sales behaviors; and exhibiting a specific set of behaviors increases the person’s luck in sales.

Le Bon gives an example how managed or “provoked” luck effects sales. A study of students selling golf tournament sponsorships revealed that those who believed in luck increased their sales 41% over those who relied on “standard sales practices.” And that “76% to 88% of the luck circumstances were incidences of provoked luck.”

Among the luck boosting behaviors that Le Bon listed, includes: competitive intelligence, mindfulness, and change circumstances are relevant to home sales. Those who are luckier tend to be: knowledgeable about the market, competitors, customers and prospects; mindful about their customers’ objectives and open to unexpected opportunities; and thinking outside the box by going outside their comfort zone and seeking new opportunities outside their sphere of influence.

Many successful listing agents also have these traits. Although not attributed to luck, their success could be viewed as “provoked” serendipity. However, they are often able to convert Le Bon’s list of actionable behaviors into successful sales and satisfied clients. Pricing homes accurately requires knowledge of local neighborhood sales trends, not to mention the overall market. Successfully negotiating transactions requires an understanding of buyers and their agents, as well as communication skills. Servicing a listing and being attentive to their clients requires being aware and addressing their needs. And of course, going outside their sphere of influence allows contacting and connecting with more prospective home buyers to sell their listing.

Even though luck, as such, is not recognized as an asset for your listing agent to possess; belief in luck seems to be part of a repertoire of beliefs typically described as a positive attitude – which has been demonstrated time and again as having positive effects on sales outcomes.

However, it’s not just your agent’s beliefs and actions that can affect your home sale. Your attitudes and beliefs can also facilitate or interfere with the sale. If you have a strong emotional attachment to your home, or have unrealistic expectations; your home may not sell, or you may be unsatisfied if it does –regardless of your agent’s skills. But then again, maybe all you need is a little luck.

If you like this post, do not copy; you can:
reference the article,
like it at facebook
or re-tweet.

Can real estate agents with high emotional intelligence get you a higher sale price?

Google+ Copyright © Dan Krell

Google+ Copyright © Dan Krell

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell

Google+
Copyright © Dan Krell