Real Estate Market Trends Archives - Page 6 of 7 - Real Estate News and Commentary

May 16, 2007October 5, 2019

The Market Forecast for 2007 and Beyond

The first quarter of 2007 is almost at an end. Tax returns are due in a few weeks. Spring Training has begun. And the spring real estate market is in full swing. Or is it?

Yes and no. Home buyers are looking. However, many of the homes that have languished on the market through the winter are still unsold, or have gone under contract at greatly reduced prices. If this is happening now, what are we to expect in the future?

Looking back to 2006 we all agree the market slowed down a bit and almost to a stand still by winter. Although it was a sluggish year, the National Association of Realtors considered 2006 to be a respectable year. Looking at the numbers nationwide, it was indeed a respectable year. Although existing home sales decreased 8.4% last year, it was the third best year on record for such sales. Additionally, new home sales decreased 17.3% and recorded the fourth best year on record for new home sales. Believe it or not, the NAR reports that homes prices increased nationally 1.1% for 2006, which is a record thirty-nine consecutive years of home price gains.

For 2007, the NAR forecasts a year much like last. Existing home sales will be consistent, but not as strong as last year, while there will be a slight increase in home prices. It is uncertain, however, how new home sales will manage (Realtor.org).

Fortune’s picture for the immediate area isn’t as rosy. Their December 21, 2006 forecast of home prices for the Washington area predicts a decrease of 3.8% in 2007 and 3.2% decrease in 2008. The forecast for the Bethesda-Gaithersburg region predicts a 2.7% decrease in 2007 and 4.3% decrease in 2008.

As a whole, economic forecasts point to a stable economy with stable employment and minimal to moderate growth. As you can imagine, many reports indicate that housing will continue to be a burden on the national economy. Reports predict that the burden will continue, however, through mid year 2007 and remain stable through 2008.

Prognosticators projected that the spring market for 2006 would be business as usual. Locally, the market preformed inconsistently. The spring market for 2007 will be inconsistent as well. As the local real estate market attempts to find its balance the market will continue to be slow through spring. Unless there is a major disaster, the sales pace will pick up in May as the market levels off.

Contributing to the continued lethargy is the fallout in the sub-prime mortgage industry. The tightening of credit guidelines due to over zealous speculators in the secondary mortgage markets has recently reduced the already shrunken pool of home buyers. Like most market commodities, investors will one day again find their appetite for sub-prime mortgages.

Home prices will continue to adjust, having an effect of tightening the available housing inventory. As many home sellers are already offering their homes at a break-even price, some home sellers will find that they cannot afford to sell as they would lose money on the sale effectively taking them out of the market.

By the end of the summer 2007, the effect of a tightening market will bring about the balance that we have been waiting for – hopefully.

This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of March 19, 2007. Copyright (c) 2007 Dan Krell.

May 16, 2007November 23, 2021

The Future of Real Estate Brokerage

by Dan Krell © 2007
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I am going to share my feelings about a recent article that appeared in the March issue of Realtor® Magazine. The article is one of a series of interviews with the innovators in the field. This article was a synopsis of a round table to discuss the future of real estate brokerage with some of the top Brokers in the field.

Although many responses made sense, other responses were disappointing. Reading about future developments such as one stop shopping, discount services, and internet leads sounded more like a rehash of the recent past rather than ground breaking innovations.

Where is the future of real estate headed? In an interview on National Public Radio (March 3, 2006), Economist Steven Levitt discussed the idea that the real estate agent is an endangered species and at that traditional six percent real estate commission may become a thing of the past because of the pressures of the internet and the economics of a housing boom. At the time, it made perfect sense. However, as the market has slowed this past year, home sellers are now offering higher commissions, and sometimes even a bonus, to sell their homes.

Ok, so what about the future? Like the Amazing Criswell, I may make some wild claims. However, the difference is that I look to history to help define where we are going.

Real estate brokerage started out as a means to bring buyers and sellers together while playing gatekeeper and controlling information. Over time, legislation and legal challenges have transformed the nature of agency and representation to become the present practice of real estate. Additionally, technology and the internet have forced changes in the type and amount of information available as well as how it is disseminated.

Generally, the core of real estate profession of tomorrow will be much like yesterday and today-people. Real estate contracts will continue to grow as brokers will continue to try to limit liability. Agency and representation may change from a transactional management model to a consultant or case management model, where the client can get assistance and direction in the buying or selling process.

Information technologies will continue to develop and will deliver high quality and detailed information as well as increasing efficiency to all users. Possibly one day, you wouldn’t have to go to an open house as you can experience any home in full scale 3D. Although contracts are getting longer and thicker, the use of the internet and email to execute and deliver documents has been helpful such that one day settlements may be conducted in a similar manner.

As economics and legislation played a large role in the development of real estate brokerage, it is difficult to predict future economic cycles and future government regulation. Even with this uncertainty, it is clear that these influences will impact the future growth of the industry. For example, economic cycles dictate the number of Realtors entering or exiting the marketplace as well as contraction and mergers of large real estate brokerages. Additionally, future legislation may impact compensation structures.

Although technologies, laws, compensations, and business models may change, one thing will continue to remain the same- the human animal. Developments will certainly make the process easier, but ultimately home buying and selling is an emotional and subjective process that requires human interaction.

This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This comlumn was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of March 12, 2007. Copyright (c) 2007 Dan Krell.

May 16, 2007October 5, 2019

Home prices, Zillow, and Formulating an Offer

Are you waiting for the bottom to drop out of the local real estate market? Although there has been a market correction, the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors home statistics report shows that the average home price in Montgomery County increased to $611,443 from $593,801 the same time last year (GCAAR.com).

I hear some out there saying there is more correction to come, but in reality there not much more that the home seller can absorb. Those home sellers who are not in dire financial straights will either wait for the right buyer or take their homes off the market. As we are coming out of winter and the spring market has yet to go into full swing, it seems as if there is no end to the lethargic market. However, like the flowers that bloom every spring, so too do homebuyers.

If you look at online valuation systems such as Zillow, it seems as if home values will continue to fall, because the values listed are higher than the list prices of homes for sale. Although web based valuation systems strive for accuracy, they will continue to offer imprecise data because these sites cannot account for real time fluctuations in the marketplace. If you are a home seller, please don’t solely rely on valuation websites to determine a sale price for your home, as the comps offered by such websites may not be the most recent or may not be directly comparable.

If you are a home buyer, you may want some tips on formulating an offer. Basing your offer on the price the home seller paid or the tax assessment is unreasonable. Many of my clients have told me that that they read somewhere or heard from someone that their offer should be based on the price paid when the home seller bought the home. Will someone please tell me whose idea this is? I neither have read this anywhere nor have I met the original source of this “wisdom.”

Additionally, using tax assessments to determine your offer can set you up for disappointment as well. Tax assessments are typically a fraction of the home value and are calculated by the locality for tax purposes. It is common for a home owner to appeal a tax assessment so as to lower the assessed value and subsequently his tax burden. The price the home seller paid and the tax assessment are mutually exclusive figures that have no bearing on market forces.

If you are ready to put an offer on a home, you should do your research and look at pertinent factors such as recent sales and market trends to assist in formulating your offer and terms. You should find the most recent sales prices for similar style and size homes in the neighborhood of the home you are considering. To determine a market trend, look at sales prices in six, three, and one month increments. Additionally, try to determine the home seller’s level of motivation, as the home seller may be open to lower offers if they are highly motivated to sell.

The real estate market is dynamic and cyclical. In determining list prices and offers, home sellers and home buyers should use the most recent and pertinent information to assist in their decisions.

December 15, 2006May 11, 2019

Expectations for the 2007 Market

The past year’s real estate market was not what people expected. With much speculation and pessimistic media reports many expected the worst. The worst never happened and the numbers for 2006 were respectable, as home sales go. What’s expected for the 2007 market?

It was interesting to see the inventory grow as the number of active listings increased through the year. In fact, 2006 has had the most active listings at one time since before 1999! Many home sellers were taken aback by the amount of competition they faced for potential home buyers; while at the same time home buyers were overwhelmed with the amount of choice.

Now that we are heading towards the end of the year, many home sellers are taking their homes of the market after a disappointing fall and many days on the market. These home sellers are anticipating re-listing their homes in the spring. In fact the number of active single family homes listed in Montgomery County has hovered around the 4000 unit mark since June, however recently dropped to about 3000 units in November (which is still more than last year at the same time) (GCAAR.com). While some of those homes did sell, most did not.

Although the average home price has steadily increased in the county, many neighborhoods are seeing depreciation in the form of lowered sales prices. The home price average in Montgomery County is more likely skewed due to the increase of home sales in the million dollar or more range. November showed a decrease in sales in all price ranges except $1.5M or higher. There was an increase of almost twelve percent in sales in November as compared to the same time last year for this price range; there were 296 sales of homes priced $1.5M and higher in November 2006 in Montgomery County.

Many are anticipating a brisker market this upcoming spring. Many forecasters are predicting a nationwide recovery in the real estate market place. While perusing the optimistic reports about the 2007 real estate market don’t expect a huge appreciation in home values. Many forecasters predict a balanced market across the nation. Economists for the National Association of Realtors predict that the number of existing home sales will maintain at the roughly the same level as 2006, however new home sales will continue to slide into 2007 (Realtor.org).

Locally, the outlook is also positive due to a strong economy, relatively low unemployment, and relatively low interest rates. Another positive sign for the market in 2007 is the foreclosure rate. A recent article in the Baltimore Examiner (examiner.com) reported about a 12% drop in Maryland foreclosures from 2005, while the rest of the country realized a 27% increase during the same time!

As the spring market arrives, we will see many homes returning to market along with new listings of existing homes. Adding to the many options available will be the high builder inventory, which has been accumulating through the fall.

Spring will also bring many home buyers to explore the market as well. However, with many choices to consider, the average days on market for listed homes will remain high. Let’s face the truth that the market has slowed; however, the good news is that we are not heading into oblivion.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2006

December 15, 2006August 2, 2019

Housing market 2006

In reading some of the real estate forecasts for 2006, I was reminded of H. G. Wells’ novel, “The Shape of Things to Come.” What does H. G. Wells have to do with Real Estate? Nothing. Well almost nothing. Any self respecting science fiction enthusiast knows that the 1933 novel about the future of mankind was eerily prophetic about the outbreak of the Second World War as well as some technological advances. However, the novel was pure science fiction. The housing market 2006 is another matter

So I had to ask myself, “what is it about economic forecasts, real estate market predictions specifically, that seem to be prophetic in one regard and erroneous in other details?” I believe that in order to get a balanced perspective you have to get information from various sources and pull the pertinent plausible statements to form the picture. The same holds true to the coming year in the local real estate market.

So what can we expect from the housing market 2006 ?

The National Association of Realtors predicts 2006 to be the second best year in history for sales activity (Realtor.org). David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR, stated in a NAR press release on December 12 that he feels that economic conditions will be positive for the housing market in the coming year. He states that general economic conditions will be good to help sustain a stable real estate market.

Conversely, the UCLA Anderson Forecast (UCLAForecast.com), the folks who accurately predicted the recession in 2001, predicted in a recent press release that there will be a “weakness” in the national economy due to problems in the housing sector. Their vision is a weaker economy through 2007 because of a slower housing market and loss of construction and housing related jobs. The bottom line is that they believe that there is a rough road the next few years, but there will be no recession.

Interestingly enough you might think that Realtors who are active in the local market would have cohesive and consistent outlook on the future. That is not the case. Local Realtors who are quoted in Realty Times (realtytimes.com) share differing opinions about the state of the present market and offer differing views about the near future.

So, what can we make of all this confusing information? Well, with regard to mortgage interest rates, the Fed is expected to have at least one more increase planed, so it will remain to be seen where mortgage interest rates level off. Currently, mortgage rates are higher than they have been in recent history, but still hover at a respectable 6.25%. Additionally, home sales have dropped off from last year’s pace but prices are still increasing. So economically, it seems as if there is a sense of return to equilibrium.

What people have described as a bubble bust, or a downturn in the real estate market, is actually a return to a more balanced market. The dysfunctional expectation that a home should sell for $25,000 (or more) than the last home sold, and have many home buyers place an offer on one home in a moments notice will change to the more reasonable expectation of selling at market value and having a buyer contract on a home in several (or more) weeks.