As talk of a housing recovery is gaining traction, some experts are saying the recovery may be artificial and short lived. Warnings from economists and a former mortgage executive paint a picture of a possible housing bubble being caused by the source they claim is cause for increasing home prices.
Steve Cook, of Real Estate Economy Watch, revealed a recent survey of 105 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists. Although respondents predicted positive home price appreciation through 2014; the experts expect that home prices won’t fare as well during ensuing years through 2017. Furthermore, 48% of the respondents felt that current Federal Reserve monetary policy might be the reason for recent home price spikes; which may be creating a future housing bubble.
A majority of the expert panel suggested that requiring a minimum down payment in the Qualified Residential Mortgage (a provision to allow lenders to bypass credit risk retention rules) would create a long-term sustainable housing market. However, only about a third of respondents believe that a minimum down payment should be 20% or more.
An April 9th online article for The Wall Street Journal titled “Is the Fed Blowing a New Housing Bubble?” written by former Fannie Mae executive, Edward Pinto, explores the source for of the housing recovery. Pinto pointed out that although recent home price surges are the highest since 2006, data released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) indicate that home price increases may not be due to “broad based improvements in the economy’s fundamentals.” But rather, home price increases are being driven by low interest rates due to the Fed’s Quantitative Easing program.
Pinto compares current market conditions to those of 2006, when government policies also likely contributed to a housing bubble. During that period, like today, income is not keeping pace with home price increases. As an example, he cited FHFA’s conventional home-financing data that indicated new home purchase prices increased 9% during February 2013 and 15% during February 2013; while income barely increased 2% (keeping relative pace with inflation).
Pinto and his assessment of recent home price spikes are getting some attention. John Aidan Byrne of the NY Post wrote on May 6th (“Next Home Crisis”) about Pinto and his concerns. Because suppressed interest rates are pushing home sale prices up, Pinto surmises that when the Fed’s QE program ends, interest rates will rise creating an “inevitable housing disaster.” However, he concludes that to avoid a housing disaster: income must increase 33%, home sale prices will drop about 25%, or lending standards must loosen significantly. He points out that loose lending policies did not end well in the last housing bubble (http://www.nypost.com/).
Regardless of murmurs of another housing bubble, current market conditions might indicate a balanced market. The trend of monthly local absorption rates compiled from the local multiple list service has consistently shown to be in recent months between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market (absorption during a buyer’s market tends to be below 50%, while a seller’s market tends to be above 60%).
Even though there is little inventory, supply and demand may be in overall balance. However, that being said; supply and demand seems to be out of balance for well priced updated homes, which appear to the source of bidding wars and escalation clauses. Homes priced above the market and/or needing repairs/updates take longer to sell.
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.
Take action – consequences of deferred maintenance can hurt home sale.
As we slowly emerge from one of deepest recessions that has hit in generations, one of the top issues facing home owners (especially those who plan a home sale) is deferred maintenance. Although a lack of financial resources could be a main reason for postponing repairs and/or regular maintenance, other reasons for doing so may include a home owner’s lack of time as well as a home owner’s psycho-social issues getting in the way of carrying out maintenance (as in the case of severe hoarding).
Deferred maintenance in a home is simply putting off repairs and timely upkeep of its systems. Delaying maintenance may turn today’s minor repair into tomorrow’s major problem. Of course not all minor repairs turn into major issues, but even minor issues can be a nuisance.
Preventative maintenance can help prevent the elements from entering the home. If delayed, issues can develop and affect other home systems. Maintaining caulking and seals around windows and doors as well as flashing on roof components can prevent water penetration into the home. Putting off repairs may allow water leaks, which can seep through walls and ceilings deteriorating drywall and even possibly weakening floor trusses/beams. Openings in seals and caulking may also allow pests to enter the home, which can also create additional issues if not addressed.
Many home owners do not pay much attention to the exterior because they spend most of their time indoors. The roof, gutters, and downspouts are often neglected due to a lack of awareness; many home owners don’t often check these systems and usually put faith in that they are doing their intended job. Home owners may not even know there is a problem with these systems until it’s too late. Water penetration from these systems can not only create problems as described above, but if left unchecked can also create problems in the basement and foundation.
Water does not have to penetrate from the exterior to create problems, it can originate from unrepaired plumbing leaks as well. In addition to causing staining on walls and ceilings, plumbing leaks if left unattended may likewise, weaken floors.
Another regular maintenance item that is not often performed is HVAC servicing. Ideally, a home’s furnace and air conditioning system should be serviced in spring and fall. Regular servicing of the HVAC systems can not only possibly extend the systems’ life but also can help identify safety issues (such as carbon monoxide leaks in some systems).
Deferred maintenance issues often decrease a home’s value and can prevent a home from selling for top dollar; sometimes preventing a home from selling at all. If you’re planning a sale and recognize that there may be deferred maintenance issues, you might ask your agent about having a pre-sale home inspection or home audit to determine the home’s condition and urgent repairs. Your agent can provide guidance on repairs and pricing your home.
If you’re like many home owners, you might have deferred maintenance on your home. Some experts recommend a “home audit” to determine your home’s condition. It’s never too late to start budgeting for home maintenance; to meet regular and emergency maintenance needs, some experts recommend an annual savings of one to three percent of the home’s value. Planning ahead can make home maintenance easier as well allow you to make informed decisions to possibly lower your maintenance costs.
A “hybrid” housing market is has a little bit of everything. There are the multiple offers and escalation clauses, as well as the homes that sit idle for days (both could be on the very same block!); buyers willing to pay more than list and those offering less. The result is frustration among buyers and sellers who are disappointed by not having their expectations met; and even a few real estate agents are losing their cool. What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the current housing market is not for the squeamish!
Although few home owners are venturing to list their homes, those who do may be seeking a premium price; most likely due to the optimism permeating the air. Furthermore some are expecting the prize of getting multiple offers with escalation clauses. Owners of homes that do not sell within the first week of listing are anxiously wondering, “Why hasn’t my house sold yet?”
The flip side is that although home buyers are plentiful (compared to the current home inventory), there still seems to be many home buyers who seek to buy a home at a 5%+ discount. Unlike the “bargain hunter,” many of these home buyers are more concerned with future home resale (which may be indicative of a lack of confidence in the future housing market).
Pressure on home buyers and sellers is likely originating from reports of bubble activity pockets that seems to be popping up, and recent home price indices that indicate increasing national average home prices. Regardless, there appears to be a lack of symmetry among home sales as well as a lack of consistency among home buyers and sellers.
So if you’re planning a home sale or purchase, what are you to make of this? You should understand that national home price indices are comprised of multiple regions, and much of the national home price increase is due to regions that had the highest home price declines over the last six years, as well as a few pockets of very hot activity (unlike the home price climb during 2004-2006, which was mostly due to high confidence in the housing market, easy credit, and a much different economy). Likewise, the Metro DC region is microcosm of the national picture, such that it is comprised of a number of counties that realized double digit home price decreases, as well as a few pockets of hot activity.
To add some perspective to local market trends, the average days-on-market of a home in Montgomery County is roughly 60 days (depending on the source). Additionally, Montgomery County single family home data compiled by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) indicated that median and average single family home price decreased year over year for the last three consecutive months. And while the number of homes listed continues to decline, the number of pending home sales (homes under contract) has also declined in March year over year, as well as year to date.
Getting into the market requires solid data, a strategy, and an open mind. If you’re selling: consult with your agent about recent neighborhood prices; and stay informed of all activity, as it could be your cue to decisions made on the sale. If you’re buying: in addition to discussing comp data, you should consult with your agent about a strategy to deal with competition from other home buyers.
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.
Information contained therein could determine whether or not you qualify for a mortgage, and possibly the interest rate you are offered. Typically, lenders use credit reports to determine how you generally manage your debts and financial obligations. Besides being used by mortgage lenders; some banks may review your credit report when you apply for a checking account, and even some insurance companies may use your credit report for underwriting purposes.
Your credit report may say more about you than you might know. The report is considered to be a “snapshot” of your financial management ability. The major credit bureaus, Equifax (equifax.com), Experian (experian.com), and Trans Union (transunion.com), act as information repositories for collected information, and make it available to those who need it. The credit bureaus are informed of your activities by your creditors as well as collecting information from public records; the collected information may include details about your identity, existing credit, public records, and recent inquiries.
Identity information may list your name and aliases, address, Social Security number, date of birth, and possibly employment information. Existing credit information lists accounts that are granted to you, and may include: credit cards, mortgages, student loans, and car loan accounts, payment history, and current balance. Public records may reveal liens, judgments, bankruptcies, and open collections.
Anyone with a legitimate need for your credit report can obtain it. Besides banks, lenders, and those who extend credit, others who may be able to view your credit report include (but not limited to) employers, landlords, and child support enforcement. These inquires are listed in the report.
Your credit score is also included in your credit report. Because each of the three credit bureaus use their own algorithms to determine your score based on the bureaus’ information, the three scores may vary somewhat. Many credit decisions are initially determined on credit scores, so it’s important to ensure that the reports are accurate so as to reflect in your credit scores.
Factors that may negatively impact your credit scores include (but not limited to): late payments, accounts referred to collection, and/or reported bankruptcy; having high account balances relative to credit limits; applying for many accounts in a short period of time; and having an excessive number of credit accounts.
With such importance placed on credit reports, it’s important to ensure your reports contain accurate information about you and your credit history. Unfortunately, inaccurate data may find its way into your report through poor reporting, misidentification, and even non-reporting of (positive) information. Additionally, identity theft has been a law enforcement issue for years; and is increasingly considered a major public threat.
You can dispute erroneous data with the reporting company, and/or the credit bureau. If you dispute to the credit bureau, the bureau will undergo an investigation. To assist the investigation, the bureau may require your identifying information, an explanation why the reported information is incorrect, and supporting documentation (such as receipts, police reports, and/or fraud affidavits).
Your credit report is considered to be a “snapshot” of your life and your ability to manage credit. Financial experts recommend that you request your report from each bureau annually to ensure the information is accurate. For more information on credit reports and scores, refer to the Federal Reserve (federalreserve.gov/creditreports), the FTC (ftc.gov), and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (consumerfinance.gov).
Self defeating attitudes can interfere with your negotiating tactics; so get out of the way and negotiate to win.
What seems like many years ago, I read a book titled “Get Out of Your Own Way: Overcoming Self-Defeating Behavior” by Mark Goulston and Philip Goldberg. If you don’t get the gist of the book by its title, the book describes how people can become obstacles to their own success. And although the book was about personal growth, the premise can apply to self defeating attitudes brought forward during negotiating a real estate transaction.
Obviously, the purpose to entering into a real estate transaction is to either buy or sell a home. However, buyers and/or sellers can sometimes become obstacles in their own path to success; they may lose sight of the bigger picture and can make poor decisions – especially in negotiating price, repairs, and other issues that may pop up throughout the process. For example, a home buyer who seeks a low priced bargain may become frustrated wondering why he is constantly outbid; while the home seller who insists on an unsupported high price might become disappointed when there are no offers.
It is common knowledge that “the first rule” of negotiation is to not be emotional. However, many decisions about buying and selling a home are often based on emotion; additionally, expectation and anticipation often influence home buyers and sellers. If emotions take over, the larger goal is often lost to a narrow focus on seemingly insignificant and petty matters.
Get out of your way by sticking to the facts. Armed with data and facts, there is less conjecture and you are more likely to be persuasive in your arguments. Additionally, concentrating on facts can also help you stay focused on the larger picture of buying or selling your home. For example, when pricing or making offers – use recent neighborhood comps and look for data driven market sales trends (rather than relying on what you hear on the news). Looking at all the facts can also help negotiate other items, such as home inspection repairs; having contractor estimates may assist in resolving an impasse.
Sometimes buyers and sellers go into a transaction with a “win-lose” attitude, where they expect that their position is always correct. Being “aggressive” towards your counterparts may seem the best way to get what you want; however, fighting for an uncompromising position may lead to all parties becoming inflexible and a transaction that does not close. In fact, being forceful and antagonistic about your offer may make others become ill tempered and even possibly hostile to further negotiation.
One of the definitive texts on warfare, “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu, has also been a guiding resource for top negotiators. “The Art of War” doesn’t talk about going to the enemy and forcing them “to eat steel.” Rather, it is a thoughtful treatise on dealing with people. The upshot is that the best way to “win” is to prevent war through positioning, data, and understanding of the counterpart. In other words, negotiating to get your way may require positioning of the facts and being persuasive (rather than approaching the transaction with a take it or leave it attitude).
Negotiating tactics are an often misunderstood part of the real estate process. Hire a savvy real estate agent to assist you in collecting data and persuasively presenting your position. For a successful transaction – get out of your way!
As talk of a housing recovery is gaining traction, some experts are saying the recovery may be artificial and short lived. Warnings from economists and a former mortgage executive paint a picture of a possible housing bubble being caused by the source they claim is cause for increasing home prices.
As talk of a housing recovery is gaining traction, some experts are saying the recovery may be artificial and short lived. Warnings from economists and a former mortgage executive paint a picture of a possible housing bubble being caused by the source they claim is cause for increasing home prices.
