Is recent housing bubble news cause for alarm

by Dan Krell

DanKrell.com
© 2013

If I said that we could experience another housing bubble, you might be concerned for my mental health. But a couple of years ago I wrote about an impending housing shortage, which could spark another bubble similar to what occurred during 2004-2005. The market-conditions similarities between 2004 and today are foreboding, if not intriguing. (Dan Krell © 2013)

There hasn’t been talk of a housing shortage since 2004; but looking at Montgomery County MD as an example, you might begin to see similarities between the housing bubble of 2005-2006 and today’s real estate market.

Monthly peek single family inventory in Montgomery County did not exceed 2,000 total active units in 2004; while the absorption rate was reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (GCAAR.com) to be about 80% during the winter of 2004. During the following year, the winter active inventory greatly increased and the absorption rates dropped to about 40%. The result was a housing market that reached critical mass, and a one year appreciation rate of about 18% for Montgomery County single family homes; which played a key role in the rampant real estate speculation in 2005-2006.

Active housing inventory has been declining since 2010; the greatest decrease occurring during 2012. According to the monthly home sale statistics posted on the GCAAR website (GCAAR.com), there were 1813 active single family inventory units for sale in Montgomery County during January 2012. And although active single family units peaked for the year during the spring of 2012, active inventory dwindled to a low of 1198 active units for sale during January 2013 – a year over year decrease of about 40%. Additionally, the absorption rate of listed homes for sale is rapidly approaching 60%

Add the home price facet – on March 5^th, CoreLogic (corelogic.com) reported that national home prices increased 9.7% during January 2013, as compared to January 2012. This was reported to be the greatest year of year home price increase since 2006.

An additional and telling similarity between the pre-bubble years and present is the number of real estate investors jumping in to cash in on distressed properties. Of course at the height of the real estate bubble of 2004-2006, real estate investing was transformed from the traditional “rehab and flip” to no rehab and flipping properties as quickly as possible. A great number of homes sold today are to investors, either to rehab or to rent.

In 2004, like today, we were about three years post recession; albeit the recession of 2001 was not as protracted as the “Great Recession.” At that time, like today, the Federal Reserve funds rate was historically low.

Although an “easy money” monetary policy is another similarity between the periods, a major difference is the availability of mortgage money. Getting a mortgage is much more difficult today than it was in 2004-2005. Buying a home without a down payment as well as qualifying for a mortgage without documenting income could have been a factor of the wide spread real estate speculation of 2005-2006. Today, as a result of the bursting of the 2005-2006 housing bubble, underwriting qualifications are more demanding as are down payment requirements.

The housing bubble phenomenon is not a new or a recent experience; housing bubbles have occurred in the past and most likely will occur in the future. When they occur, housing bubbles seem to coincide with a recessionary cycle. And just like recessions, housing bubbles vary in duration and severity. Sure, another housing bubble may be looming; but the next bubble may be confined to specific regions of the country, and possibly some local neighborhoods.

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This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

February 21, 2013December 2, 2020

Sequestration will affect real estate and housing markets

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com

(Dan Krell © 2013) Remember the “Fiscal Cliff?” Well, after a two month hiatus, sequestration concerns are again entering (if not intrusively) the minds of those who may be affected. And, if you remain indifferent on the matter, you might consider the local economic effect from looming government budget cuts that may begin on March 1st.

On February 14th, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan provided written testimony to the “Hearing before the Senate Committee on Appropriations on The Impacts of Sequestration” (HUD.gov). Secretary Donovan outlined what he described as the “harmful effects of Sequestration” to not only at-risk populations, but families, communities, and the economy at large, as he concluded, “…Sequestration is just such a self-inflicted wound that would have devastating effects on our economy and on people across the nation.”

As a result, HUD counseling would be limited. According to Secretary Donovan, about 75,000 families would not be able to receive the critical counseling services that include pre-purchase counseling, and foreclosure prevention counseling. According to the Secretary: “…This counseling is crucial for middle class and other families who have been harmed by the housing crisis from which we are still recovering, and are trying to prevent foreclosure, refinance their mortgages, avoid housing scams, and find quality, affordable housing. Studies show that housing counseling plays a crucial role in those 3 efforts. Distressed households who receive counseling are more likely to avoid foreclosure, while families who receive counseling before they purchase a home are less likely to become delinquent on their mortgages.”

FHA has been the workhorse to stabilize the housing market as well as providing the means for affordable home purchases. Those directly affected by sequestration would be home buyers and home owners who are applying for FHA mortgages; as well as those seeking assistance through HAMP and HAFA. In written testimony, Secretary Donovan stated that “…furloughs or other personnel actions may well be required to comply with cuts mandated by sequestration.” As a result, “…The public will suffer as the agency is simply less able to provide information and services in a wide range of areas, such as FHA mortgage insurance and sale of FHA-owned properties.”

Another concern is the possibility of a sharp increase in interest rates. Up until now, home buyers (and those refinancing) have had the benefit of historically low mortgage interest rates. Low mortgage interest rates are one of the reasons why home affordability is also at historic levels. A sharp rise in interest rates combined with FHA mortgage delays could shock the housing and real estate market. The result could be housing activity similar to what we experienced immediately after the financial crisis. Granted, the shock would probably not be as prolonged as what occurred in 2008-2009, but nonetheless significant.

In a region that has been relatively unaffected by unemployment and economic issues due to a strong government workforce, sequestration could essentially put a damper on the local housing recovery. Home buyer activity has already been affected, as those who are concerned about sequestration have either put their home purchase plans on hold, or have changed their housing plans altogether. And of course, over time, the changes to consumer behavior would trickle down to various sectors of the economy.

But don’t worry, although sequestration is set to begin March 1st, budget cuts won’t occur all at once. Unless Congress acts on the matter, you might not immediately feel its effects.

February 13, 2013December 2, 2020

Predicting 2013 home sales through housing statistics

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2013

Much like a soap opera cliff hanger, 2012 home sales ended on an upward swing leaving people wanting more good news. There’s a lot expected from this year’s real estate market, so what are some of the experts saying about 2013?

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (www.standardandpoors.com/indices) press release dated January 29th reported home prices rose during 2012 through November rose in 19 of 20 cities. The 10-city composite revealed an annual home price increase of 4.5% and the 20-city composite revealed a home price increase of 5.5%. And although the release described that the seasonally adjusted home prices may be an indication of a week winter housing market, there was a clear pronouncement that “…housing is clearly recovering…” and pointed out that nationwide existing home sale volume outpaced recent years’ volumes. The cities that made the most gains were the cities that experienced the most declines in home values and the highest foreclosure rates. The home price indices of the 10-city and 20-city composites are reportedly back to 2003 levels.

The National Association of Realtors® (realtor.org) reported in a February 11th press release that the national median existing single family home price increased 10% in the fourth quarter 2012 over the same period in 2011. And the Housing Affordability Index indicates that the homebuyer’s buying power is at a point where they could “comfortably” afford to purchase a home.

Fourth quarter 2012 home sales volume was reported by NAR to be the highest since the fourth quarter 2009; 23% of home sales during the quarter were from distressed home sales (short sales and foreclosures). Additionally, home sale inventory was down about 21.6% for the quarter, which is the lowest since 2001.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun was reported as saying that home sales are being energized by “pent up demand” and low inventories. He stated, “…all the conditions for strong price growth are at play.”… “Home sales are on a sustained uptrend, mortgage interest rates are hovering near record lows and unsold inventory is at the lowest level in 12 years…” Yun believes that “…supply and demand dynamics are very much at play.”

Given recent reports from various sources, it looks as if there is momentum in the real estate market. And NAR’s Dr. Yun lays out an argument for home sales that hasn’t been since 2006. But chances are that 2013 home sales will be about many factors, not just “pent up demand” or “supply and demand.” For example, it is doubtful that hedge funds will continue the bulk foreclosure buying that pushed home sales figures to almost record levels.

By themselves, housing indices are broad based measures that typically measure one aspect of the housing market; describing the variables responsible for the measures and indices is more difficult and usually a guess at what’s happening in the marketplace. In an effort to provide a more meaningful measure of the housing market, I devised a measure called the “Krell List-to-Sold Ratio;” which is the ratio of total number of listings to the total number of homes sold in any given area during any time period. The January 2013 Krell List-to-Sold Ratio for Montgomery County reveals that activity continues to be elevated; which is interpreted to mean that the year has started stronger than recent years, but not as strong as 2012.

January 31, 2013November 23, 2021

Rude home buyers take note

Has increasing incidents of rudeness become tolerated, or is there an epidemic of narcissism? Rude home buyers are growing in numbers. Regardless, home buyers and their agents should be respectful of the home seller and their property. After all, they are “guests” while viewing the home.

Rude home buyers take note

Although the majority of home buyers and real estate agents adhere to the “golden rule” and are polite and courteous, it’s not uncommon for a few to be bad-mannered and disrespectful. Of course, it’s alright for you to be honest about your feelings towards a home; and home sellers appreciate honest feedback. However, if the home is not to your taste or is not in the condition you expect; there is no need to lay on the insults as you peruse the home – rather, be honest to yourself and your agent, do the polite thing and excuse yourself. Don’t waste your time and energy walking through a home that is not for you.

Contrary to belief, “insulting” is not a negotiation tactic; there is a difference between being outright aggressive and assertive. Insulting the seller and their home can be counterproductive; there is a difference between being offensive about living conditions versus stating objective and factual information about the home’s condition. Rather than offering a lower price for a home based on your opinion of the home owner, a lower price makes more sense if you can make a case that the home needs updating and/or repairs.

Although most home buyers view homes with their real estate agent, many ride home buyers attend open houses alone. If you view homes with your agent, they may remind you of etiquette and behavioral expectations. However, if your agent acts disrespectful toward the seller and/or their property, it is not an excuse for you to follow suit.

Home sellers deserve respect

Being respectful of home sellers and their properties is not only expected, it is a good strategy. If you’re unsure about a situation, ask your agent how to act/respond. However, here are some general etiquette tips while viewing homes (alone or with your agent): Be respectful of the occupants by adhering to showing instructions; don’t show up unexpected and demand to see the home; if you cannot keep an appointment, make sure the occupant is notified; be respectful of the property; follow showing instructions in the home seller’s absence, such as requests to remove shoes; in the case of potentially dangerous situations, such as a gas odor, a tripped security alarm, unexpected power failure, etc – alert your agent and/or the proper authorities immediately; if you bring children with you – always keep an eye on your children; never eat in the home, as it could leave a mess in the home; leave the home as you entered it by locking all exterior doors and shutting off the lights as necessary; criticism is best left for a later time – your comment s may be overheard by others; if the home is not to your liking – politely excuse yourself from the home.

Rude home buyers often sabotage their transaction

Remember that even though you are rightly focused on your housing needs, you are a guest while viewing others’ homes. And although there is no expectation for you to offer positive feedback – there is an expectation for you to be respectful of the owners and occupants of the home. At some point the roles may be reversed and you will be the home seller expecting others to respect you and your home.

Original published at https://dankrell.com/blog/2013/01/31/rude-and-narcissistic-home-buyers-take-note-home-sellers-need-respect-too/

by Dan Krell
Google+

January 24, 2013November 23, 2021

Hire a real estate agent

Why should you hire a real estate agent? Home buying and selling without an agent is not for everyone.

A somewhat prophetic Howard Schneider proclaimed in a 1995 article “For Better or for Worse” (published in Mortgage Banking; 56(1), 110) that a combination of technology and industry consolidation would drastically change the real estate landscape by the end of the 1990’s.

Schneider discussed technology changing the relationship between Realtors® and consumers such that through the development of technology, home sellers and buyers would be able to interact without the use of a real estate agent. He quoted John Moore, then president and CEO of Genesis Relocation Services, “If you can get the word out about your property efficiently to the mass market, you can avoid paying the full brokerage commission…” and “…within five years, most homes will be able to see listings around the country on interactive T.V.”

What Schneider described actually happened, and is now called “the internet.” The growth of the internet during the first decade of the 21st century allowed home buyers and sellers to interact with each other like no other time. The technology was a boon for those who decided to go it alone, and not hire a real estate agent.

Of course the internet was only a piece to the larger puzzle of the early 2000’s. It seems that for a very brief time, just placing a sign in the yard was enough to spread the word of your home sale. Deciding price, financing, and closing all seemed to be a “no-brainer.” But five years after the housing boom, it’s evident that not everyone can sell real estate “by owner.” Many moved back to hire a real estate agent.

One of the top reasons for selling or buying a home without a real estate agent is the perception of saving money. People who decide to sell without an agent don’t see the value of hiring an agent; while some buyers who decide to buy without an agent believe they can reduce their sale price by the commission amount.

Although hiring an agent may not be a god fit for some, many value what an agent can bring to the transaction. Real estate agents are housing-market experts; besides knowing neighborhood trends, they can provide detailed market analyses to assist in formulating a listing or sale price for home sellers or buyers. Agents facilitate offers, transactions, and negotiation. They are up to date on legislation affecting home buyers and sellers; agents know the seller’s/buyer’s obligations, including compulsory disclosures and forms. And of course, there is the time aspect (how much is your time worth?).

Reasons to hire a real estate agent

Talented real estate agents are sales and marketing specialists. These agents know how to interpret home sale data to determine a price, and the best times to list/buy your home. Additionally, they know how to prepare and present your home to prospective home buyers and promote it to grab home buyers’ attention.

Getting back to Schneider’s article, he concluded that regardless of technological advances and the inclination toward mergers to an increasingly centralized industry with few big players. It’s ultimately about nearby professionals who have the knowledge of the local market. It’s basically who can personally assist you through your transaction. Personal attention cannot be under-emphasized, especially when the transaction is demanding or emotionally charged.

Are you better off without a real estate agent? You might think that technology has made it easier for you to go it alone; but, if you want a relatively smooth transaction with little drama – hire a professional.

Original located at https://dankrell.com/blog/2013/01/24/thinking-of-buying-or-selling-a-home-without-an-agent-hire-a-professsional/

by Dan Krell
Google+
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2013 Dan Krell.

by Dan Krell

by Dan Krell DanKrell.com

by Dan Krell DanKrell.com © 2013

Much like a soap opera cliff hanger, 2012 home sales ended on an upward swing leaving people wanting more good news. There’s a lot expected from this year’s real estate market, so what are some of the experts saying about 2013?

Rude home buyers take note

Home sellers deserve respect

Rude home buyers often sabotage their transaction

Reasons to hire a real estate agent

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com

by Dan Krell
DanKrell.com
© 2013