Real Estate News and Commentary

June 24, 2022June 24, 2022

Housing Market Pause, Slowdown, or Collapse?

Is the housing market in a pause, going into a slowdown, or worse – headed for a collapse? Looking back to an article I wrote an article in the summer of 2018 asking the same question, we were at a similar point then and asking the same questions. Just like today, the summer of 2018 saw decreasing home sales after a sellers’ and sharply rising home sale prices. Instead of being in full swing, the housing market of the summer of 2018 was cooling down.

During that time, it was common place to hear about the impending doom and gloom in a housing collapse from the media. In hindsight, what occurred that summer was a normal reaction to an overheated market where stressed home buyers basically took a break. Even with the short pause, the housing remained an active and viable aspect of the US economy.

Housing, like other facets of the economy, go through cycles of boom and bust. Most are familiar with the extreme boom and bust cycles, such as what occurred during 2005-2007. However, many are unfamiliar with the concept of the mini-cycle. The mini cycle is a period of short-term growth and slowdown, modulating to maintain a relative balance. Instead going through a protracted cycle of expansion, hyper-supply, and recession, the housing market could be correcting itself via mini cycles.

Prior to the lockdowns of 2020, the housing market was in the process of correcting itself from sharp home price increases during a hot 2017-2018 market. At that time, home sale inventory was already at historic lows (which began in 2013). As you can understand, the lockdowns further exacerbated the home sale inventory shortage and pushing the housing market and home buyers into an unprecedented situation. The double-digit multiple offers and six-figure escalations pushed home buyers to the edge, exhausting and discouraging many.

After a year and a half of sensational activity and home price gains, it’s not unthinkable that home sales would correct itself. As reported in the June 21^st National Association of Realtors press release (https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time), May 2022 home sales decreased 3.4 percent from April, and decreased 8.6 percent from May 2021. Home sale inventory continues to increase, and was reported to be about 2.6 months of supply, which gives home buyers more opportunities.

Home prices, on the other hand, continue to increase. As reported in the NAR press release, median home prices are 14.8 percent higher than a year ago! The $407,600 median home sale price is the first time the median sale price exceeded $400,000.

Of course, housing is also affected by outside economic factors, which are concerning to everyone. If you are in the market to buy or sell a home, look at the facts and make decisions that make sense for your situation. Finally, work with a seasoned professional to assist you to understand and navigate your local market.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2022

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Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

March 9, 2021March 9, 2021

Home Selling Strategy

There is an idiom that says that the “Map is not the territory.” One interpretation is that you shouldn’t confuse theory with reality. And in real estate, that means you shouldn’t confuse the strategy with the market cycle. And as this seller market cycle continue, some home sellers are confusing it as the implementation of a brilliant home selling strategy.

Low home sale inventory seems to be the new normal since the Great Recession. Home owners are staying in their homes longer, and first-time home buyers are putting off buying a home to save money. And the current market cycle highlights how pent-up home buyer demand can drive home prices. In this market, appropriately priced homes sell fast, usually within a week. Many times, homes will get multiple offers and sell over list price. The truth is that current conditions are a manifestation of the market. However, home sellers come to expect homes to sell in a week for over list price, even when the market changes. The answer to a successful sale in any market is to create a home selling strategy.

Regardless of the housing market conditions, you need a home selling strategy (also known as a marketing strategy) to sell your home. The marketing strategy will determine the best way to position your home to get your home sold in an expedient way at the best price. It’s a map that you create to get you to a successful closing.

Your home selling strategy research should be focused on your neighborhood, as well as competing neighborhoods. Many begin with a comparative market analysis (or CMA). A CMA is a process of determining a potential home sale price by evaluating neighborhood sales of similar homes in style, size, and age. In a buyer’s market, when homes are taking longer to sell, you should get a 30-60-90 day analysis to determine the trend of sale price and days on market. In a seller’s market, the trend is usually where homes sell relatively quickly. However, the CMA can assist in understanding pricing trends.

One of the interesting aspects of a detailed CMA is the comparisons of characteristics and features between your home and other homes that recently sold. From the analysis you can begin to see what makes your home stand out from the others. You may discover your home has more or less amenities than other neighborhood homes, which should be considered in your pricing strategy.

List price is everything. Your home sale strategy hinges on pricing your home correctly. Regardless of market conditions, if the house is prices too high it will likely take longer to sell (relative to the average time on market). Homes that are prices correctly tend to sell faster than over priced homes. Many home sellers trying to reap “top dollar” have made the mistake of setting the list price too high expecting a home buyer to make an offer. The truth is that buyers are savvy and will likely skip the over priced homes. Your strategy, no matter how clever, can’t overcome overpricing.

Preparing your home should also be part of your strategy. Decluttering and deep cleaning is a must for all home sales. Whether or not you live in the home, you should consider staging. “Home staging” is a term that is used to describe the process of making your home as appealing as possible to potential home buyers to sell the house quickly. This may include rearranging and/or removing furniture. Some home sellers rent trendy furniture to replace their own items.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2021

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February 14, 2021February 14, 2021

3D Printing Home Building

When you think of modern home construction, you typically think about (wood) sticks and bricks. And it’s been that way for decades. But since its introduction in 1983, tech visionaries thought about using the 3D printing to build houses. What was once a futuristic dream of 3D printing home building is now a reality.

In his 2017 commentary, Sean Mashian lays out how 3D printing will change the landscape of home building and real estate (The impact of 3D printing on real estate; Cornell Real Estate Review; 2017. 15, p64-65.). He discussed how the technology was used and the potential for the housing industry. His assessment was that large scale commercial 3D printing technology was rudimentary and expensive. Instead, the industry mostly used the tech for smaller projects, such as scale models for new home developments. However, like any new technology, he expected large scale commercial 3D printers to become more commonplace as the tech emerges. He predicted the potential of 3D printing growth, just as internet tech and e-commerce grew in the early 2000’s.

In order to grow the technology of 3D printing home building , pioneers like Apis Cor (apis-cor.com) are needed. Apis Cor claimed to be the first company to develop and deploy a mobile construction 3D printer capable of printing a complete house on site. About five years ago, Apis Cor made headlines when they “printed” a house in 24 hours. Although. the one level 400sf home was rudimentary, it demonstrated the flexibility of the 3D printing technology. The home was 3D printed completely on site and in mid-winter.

The 3D tech is already being used in some manner in the housing industry. A 2013 article in Kitchen & Bath Design News (Design and the 3D Printing Revolution) reported on design companies that were using 3D printing to manufacture personalized home fixtures. And in 2019, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that 3D printing tech is already being used by a small number of builders to produce architectural details for homes.

A January 11^th National Association of Home Builders release discusses how 3D printing can change the industry (How 3D-Printed Structures Could Disrupt Housing; nahb.org). Although the NAHB states the tech is still developing, there is a belief that it will address several concerns about housing:

First, it will make homes more affordable. Currently, 3D printed homes are relatively small, which reduces materials and time to build the home. Automation significantly reduces labor costs. Additionally, some 3D printed homes can be built without a foundation, which also reduces time, materials, and costs.

Second, home building will be more sustainable. The technology inherently has little waste. Each house is “printed” with the necessary material. Besides incorporating green technologies, the structure is printed in such a way that it improves energy efficiency.

Third, 3D printing home building designs are easily changed in an automated system. The design flexibility can make numerous shapes that can address fast paced changes to the housing market.

And last, building delays are almost eliminated. Whether the houses are printed on site, (such as Apis Cor’s technology) or built in a facility, the rapid building time reduces weather impact. Depending on the home size and printer capability, a home can be built in as little as 24 hours or up to several weeks. This type of productivity greatly reduces time and delay costs due to labor and materials.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2021

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February 5, 2021February 5, 2021

Short Sale Home Selling

As you probably know, it’s been a sellers’ market with many listings getting multiple offers. With such a strong housing market, it would seem unthinkable that some home owners would be underwater on their mortgages when selling their homes. But the fact remains that there are many home owners who have to go through the short sale home selling process to sell their homes.

On the face of it, the January 14th press release from ATTOM Data Solutions (attomdata.com) seems to add credence to the housing market’s strength, touting that foreclosure activity is the lowest in sixteen years. The report stated that default notices, auctions, and repossessions decreased 57 percent from the previous year, and decreased 93 percent from 2010’s peak would seem to be terrific news. But the low foreclosure activity stats are actually a manifestation of a government moratoria on foreclosure activities that was imposed due to the pandemic emergency.

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President of RealtyTrac, an ATTOM Data Solutions company, stated “The government’s moratoria have effectively stopped foreclosure activity on everything but vacant and abandoned properties. There is a backlog of foreclosures building up – loans that were in foreclosure prior to the moratoria; loans that would have defaulted under normal circumstances; and loans whose borrowers are in financial distress due to the pandemic.” Further commenting on the foreclosure backlog, Sharga believes that the foreclosure wave won’t be as bad as what occurred prior and during the Great Recession. But he cautioned that we won’t know how large the foreclosure wave will be until the moratoria expires.

So, in the face of a strong housing market, there are many home owners who need to sell (due to job loss, job relocation, divorce, etc.) but can’t because the proposed sale price is short of the amount needed to cover the costs of selling (which typically includes mortgage, closing costs, realtor & title fees, etc.). This is where a short sale can be considered.

A short sale is basically when your sales net isn’t enough to pay the mortgage(s) on the property. In many cases, short selling home owners don’t have the funds to make up the shortage needed at settlement. Instead, they seek lender approval to allow a lower mortgage payoff in order for the transaction to close. Because short sales have become a common form of transaction in the real estate landscape, the process has become more standardized since the Great Recession. Although the typical time to complete a short sale can take three to six months, short sales can take as little as forty-five days. However, it’s important to note short sale approval can also take more than six months.

Although the core process is the same, lenders have different requirements when collecting information and conducting their due diligence. Having a professional negotiator helps facilitate your short sale. Seasoned short sale listing agents typically work with experienced attorneys to negotiate and handle the process.

If you are thinking of short sale home selling, interview several experienced and local short sale agents. Ask about their track record for successful short sales and how they work on your behalf to get the job done. Also talk to their negotiator, and ask about their track record in successfully negotiating short sales.

When considering a short sale, consider all your other options as well and get professional advice from an attorney and CPA to determine your best solution.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2021

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January 22, 2021January 22, 2021

Home Selling with Pets

We love our pets, they’re part of the family! If you’re home selling with pets, you’ll find home buyer pet owners will likely be drawn to your pet accommodations. According to the 2020 Animal House: Pets in the Home Buying and Selling Process report (nar.realtor, April 2020) many home buyers make decisions with their pets in mind. Some highlights include: 43 percent of pet owners would move to find a better home for their pet; paramount to 18 percent of pet owners is outdoor spaces and convenience to a vet; 68 percent of home buyers’ decision to buy or rent was based on the community’s animal policy.

But there are many other buyers who don’t have pets. Non-pet home buyers are often turned off by a “pet home” for various reasons. Some have pet allergies, and can be affected when they enter the home. Others are turned off by pet odors. And some are distracted by free-roaming pets while touring the home. Is there a home selling with pets strategy that can make your home more appealing to all home buyers?

Professionally deep-clean your home.

One of the most common obstacles home buyers encounter when viewing a home is that their allergies are triggered when they enter a home where a dog and/or a cat live. A common cause for this is pet dander and odor. These issues are typically addressed by hiring a professional to clean carpets and furniture. Refusing to do this could devalue the home and stay on the market longer.

Repair pet related damage.

Pets are wonderful, but they sometimes scratch walls, doors, and furniture. Carpets sometimes get ripped and stained. Wood floors can also be scratched and stained. Pets can also dig holes in the yard and garden beds. If your pet has done any of these things to your home, consider making repairs. Failing to repair pet related damage can turn off potential buyers, and devalue your home.

Before a buyer visits a home.

Before buyers visit your home, vacuum rugs and furniture, and sweep up dander in any other areas. Inspect your home to make sure there are no surprise droppings from your pet. Put away your pet’s toys. Professionals recommend placing non-toxic flowers and plants through the home to help provide a fresh environment. Because not everyone is a dog lover, take your dog out for a walk while buyers tour your home.

Many professionals advise pet owning home sellers to hide traces of their pets as much as possible. However, it many feel this is more work than they signed on for. Is there a balance where you don’t have ot remove your pet while selling?

Melissa Dittmann Tracey, in her NAR article Can You Stage the Household Dog? (March 26, 2012; nar.realtor) relates her experience about selling her home by getting her dogs in on the sale. The staging is basically making the pet area more homely. Tracey dressed her dogs for a photo to be placed in their area. The photo said “Welcome to our home.” She related that when she removed her pets, she didn’t get an offer. However, when the pets where in the home, she received two offers. Of course, Tracey’s experience is purely anecdotal, but it’s something to think about as an alternative staging idea.

By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2021

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