economy Archives - Page 5 of 10 - Real Estate News and Commentary

October 17, 2014December 13, 2022

Home designs for multigenerational families under one roof

“Wait long enough and it will come back in style” is a saying that typically applies to clothing styles and fashion. And unlike fashion trends, which typically relies on pop culture, fads, and a designer’s vision; home design trends are more practical and rely on changing life styles, advances in building technologies, and the development and/or use of new construction materials.

Although the idea of extended family living under one roof has not been commonplace for decades, multigenerational life styles have been trending in recent years. And this year, there was a surge in the demand of multigenerational home designs.

Consider a Pew Research Center analysis, as reported by Sally Abrahms in the AARP Bulletin (3 Generations Under One Roof, April 2013; aarp.org), that indicated multigenerational households increased 10.5 percent (which is about 16.7 percent of the U.S. population) between 2007 and 2009. She also cited a 2012 survey by the Pulte Group, that indicated about 32 percent of adult children plan to live with their parents.

Such surveys make sense, if you consider that our population is increasingly aging. And as long term care costs are increasing, there is growing pressure on adult children to take care of their parents during their waning years and declining health (as was once expected decades ago). Consider the cost of long term care as reported by Genworth Financial (genworth.com): the 2014 Maryland median cost of a private one bedroom accommodation in an assisted living facility is $40,800 per year; while the 2014 Maryland median cost for a semi-private room in a nursing home is $98,368 per year.

Besides the rising aging population, Abrahms also pointed out that multigenerational living is also due to the return of young adults to their parents’ homes. Also known as the “boomerang generation,” many pay rent and contribute to housing costs. About 75% of young adults aged 25-34 moved back with parents; as well 61% of young adults aged 25-34 who know of friends or family who moved back with parents due to lack of living arrangements, lack of money, and/or lack of employment.

In the past, the extended families that lived under one roof had little choice but to make the best use of a home typically designed for one family. However, home builders have taken notice of the trend in multigenerational households and have responded. Amy Taxin, of the Associated Press, reported (The family that stays together: Homebuilders are making room for more multigenerational households; Associated Press – The Washington Times, April 16, 2012) that builders are offering single family home designs with “…semi-independent suites with separate entries, bathrooms and kitchenettes. Some suites even include their own laundry areas and outdoor patios for additional privacy, though they maintain a connection to the main house through an inside door. “

Taxin pointed out multigenerational housing options, which includes: Lennar Corp, which offered a 3,400 square foot home in the Las Vegas area that contained 700 square foot suites; and Standard Pacific Homes that rolled out the “casitas” idea which is independent living areas attached to the main house.

After many decades of the “break-away” family, a number of socio-economic factors have come together to bring about the reintegration of the extended family under one roof. The idea that multigenerational living is once again popular has created a new niche and trend for home builders and architects.

Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

October 1, 2014November 23, 2021

Home equity entitlements, home prices, and talk of external price controls

A home buyer who visited a recent open house told me that home sellers need to “let go of their perception of entitled equity.”

I will pause here for a moment, as you are no doubt trying to make sense of the last statement.

Was this visitor verbalizing that a seller’s home equity be measured and controlled? And the follow up question might be: “Since when is a home owner’s equity perceived as an entitlement?” Was the buyer saying that there should be outside intervention to determine the equity a home owner may net on their sale (so as to make housing affordable), much like rental controls that exist in some areas around the country?

Who makes the decision as to how much equity a home owner may realize (net)? Sure, one could argue that home equity is an intangible concept that comes from the perceived value of your home; where the value is relative until it is realized (liquidated). You could also say that equity is realized through liquidation of the home by either selling it (or cashing out with a mortgage or equity line of credit); the value being the price a buyer is willing to pay, (or the amount a lender decides so as to make a loan). So it seems that when it comes to home sales, market forces still (mostly) determines the sale price and the amount of equity (if any) the home seller nets from the sale. Simply put – buyers and sellers negotiate home prices; generally, buyer pushback on listing prices can pressure sale prices to decrease, much like high demand can pressures prices to increase.

Let’s give the open house buyer the benefit of the doubt; maybe having outside intervention was not what he meant by saying home sellers need to let go of their perceived entitled equity. Maybe he was using (or misusing) economic jargon to make a point by expressing his opinion that housing is currently overpriced.

As I wrote in August, if you want to know where the housing market is headed, ask a home buyer. And it seems as if this buyer is not alone in his sentiment, as the attitude that home prices are too high is (again) an increasing view among many home buyers. It could be that the housing market is encountering what was experienced in 2009, when at that time there was a growing disparity between the price home sellers are asking and what home buyers are willing to pay. After all, it was during 2008-2009 when similar attitudes were strongly expressed, a time when rapidly falling home prices did not encourage home sales.

Quentin Fottrell pointed out in his pithy MarketWatch analysis of recent housing data (10 most overvalued (and undervalued) housing markets, marketwatch.com, 10/1/2014) that “Seven of the top 100 metro areas are overvalued by more than 10%, the highest number since the first quarter of 2009.” He also mentions that the last time this occurred was early in the housing bubble; but Fottrell says there should be little concern of current housing bubble because of the current economic environment (jobs and construction).

Conversations with home buyers are extremely valuable to home sellers for many reasons. What you might come away from this conversation is that there is continued push back on listing prices; and unless home sellers are responsive to pricing feedback, they should prepare for a long time on market.

August 6, 2014November 23, 2021

Millennials, home buying, and tiny houses

Many analysts are trying to provide answers for this year’s disappointing home sales volume. One factor that has been maintained is the lack of participation from young home buyers, which may be supported by statistics compiled by the National Association of Realtors®. Highlights from the National Association of Realtors® 2013 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers cites the median age of home buyers was 42 years old (increased from the median age of 39 reported in 2008, when three-fifths of all home buyers were under 45); and the median age of the first time home buyer was 31 (increased from the median age of 30 in 2008, when 54% of first time home buyers were reported to be between the ages of 25 and 34).

Millennials, typically described to be between the ages of 18 and 34, have recently been the focus of much financial analysis. There is a consensus that millennial economic participation has been impacted by employment and a challenging job market. Along with a burdening student loan debt, many millennials have decided to delay family formation; not to mention forgoing home purchases for rentals and moving back with mom and dad.

David Jacobson, in his A July 16^th Money article “10 Things Millennials Won’t Spend Money On” (time.com/money) described millennials as a financially savvy group who, like the generation of the Great Depression, has learned from the Great Recession. When it comes to housing, Jacobson states that it is not a lack of desire for homeownership, but rather just a matter of affordability. He cites a Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies finding indicating that homeownership fell 12% among those younger than 35 during the period between 2006 and 2011; and an additional 2 million are living with their parents. Even though he describes improving economic conditions, Jacobson attributes the prohibitive cost of housing to the combination of economic challenges along with recent changes to the mortgage industry.

Emily Parkhurst, the Digital Managing Editor of the Puget Sound Business Journal, provides additional insight in an August 1^st blog post (Zillow data shows millennials don’t buy houses). Identifying herself as a millennial by saying “I’m that 32 year old non-homeowner they’re talking about…” she shares her frustrating experience with selling her husband’s condo with an underwater mortgage. Having purchased the condo before their marriage, and then having to make job related moves, they tried selling it via short sale and then trying a deed-in-lieu; but after more than three years, she states, “It’s been an insane back-and-forth with no promise of resolution any time soon. Why would I ever sign up for the possibility of that again?”

Although homeownership may still be a challenge for many, including millennials; the “Tiny House Movement” may be viewed as an affordable alternative to traditional housing. Another take on manufactured housing (mobile and double-wide homes), the Tiny House Movement was described by Randy Stearns of TIME (Tiny Houses With Big Ambitions; May 29, 2014) as “…efforts by architects, activists and frugal home owners to craft beautiful, highly functional houses of 1,000 square feet or less (some as small as 80 square feet).”

Maybe the Tiny House may not solve all of the problems in the real estate industry, but the concept of mobile, tiny efficient housing seems to be catching on not only with those who are downsizing – but also as mobile apartments for millennials.

June 11, 2014July 4, 2019

Forget GDP – real estate is still a local phenomenon

Are you one of those who are ignoring the recent negative GDP report? Or are you chalking it up to the weather or other factors? If you are unaware, the May 29^th news release by the U.S. Department of Commerce – Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) reported that the Gross Domestic Product for the 1^st Quarter 2014 was revised to -1%. Of the number of reasons cited was a negative contribution from residential fixed investment (basically poor home sales).

Although one poor quarter is not a trend, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP could be considered a recession. But this rule of thumb is not always accurate – after all, this is the second time during the current recovery we have had a negative GDP. Many economists are not concerned and expect a rebound, citing the recent employment report; while some are very concerned, citing the low employment participation along with declining personal income and spending.

I hear you saying: “Ok, even though home sales have been lacking, home prices have been increasing,” which is a sign of strength in the housing market. According to an analysis by Ray Valdez (The housing bubble and the GDP: a correlation perspective: Journal of Case Research in Business & Economics; June 2010, Vol. 3, p1), there is a strong relationship between GDP and home prices. Local data for Montgomery County MD during May 2014 not only indicates a year over year decrease in sales volume, but average home sale prices may have decreased bout 1% compared to May 2013. Other indications that the local housing market is cooling this year is the sharp increase of new listings, and a lower absorption rate of listed homes.

The BEA GDP release also cited Gross Domestic Income for the 1^st Q as decreasing 2.3% (compared to the 2.6% increase the previous quarter). Putting income in perspective, Rick Newman of Yahoo’s “The Daily Ticker” (The Middle Class is Even Worse Off Than the Numbers Show); “The “average” American worker earns about $44,000 per year and saves around 4% of his income. And the “average” household has a net worth of approximately $710,000, including the value of homes, investments, bank accounts and so on. But many Americans, needless to say, fall well below those benchmarks, which fail to capture widespread financial distress…” Newman points to the growing wealth of the affluent as skewing income data: “The rich have always skewed wealth and income data to some extent, since they pull up averages and make ordinary people seem a bit better off than they really are. But the outsized gains of the super-rich during the past 25 years have become so disproportionate that some measures of prosperity may be losing their relevance.”

If you’re concerned about mixed economic reports affecting the housing market and possibly your sale or purchase; you can take heart in the notion that the current environment is different than that of the Great Recession. Some economists expect a rebound, citing relatively low mortgage interest rates and some loosening lending standards as incentivizing home buyers.

Nevertheless, real estate is still a local phenomenon; and just like the differences between regional markets, external influences can create differences among geographical areas as well. If you’re planning to be in the market, consult with your real estate agent about recent neighborhood data and trends to assist you with your pricing strategy.

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By Dan Krell
Copyright © 2014

May 28, 2014August 8, 2019

Luxury home sales outpace mid-low tier sales

What seemed like the breakout year in real estate may turn into a hard act to follow. Although the National Association of Realtors® May 22^nd news release made headline news by skillfully pointing out that April existing home sales increased 1.3% from March; April’s sales data were 6.8% lower than last April. Much like the assertion to “Keep Calm and Carry On,” the spin on data may bean attempt to motivate home buyers and sellers.

The Greater Capital Association of Realtors® home sale statistics were consistent with NAR’s, such that Montgomery County MD single family home sales decreased about 8.2% in April compared to the same time in 2013. Looking deeper, the numbers reveal a similar scenario that played out in 2011 when a bifurcated market emerged between upper bracket and middle to low bracket homes. Sales of upper bracket homes are doing very well this year, while moderate to lower bracket homes sales are decreasing compared to last year. And much like 2011 when luxury home sales hit record prices (when DC’s Evermay and Halcyon House sold); 2014 is also a year of record luxury home sales (LA’s Fleur-de-Lys sold for $102M, CT’s Copper Beech Farm sold for $120M, and a NY mansion sold for $147M; each sale successively breaking the record for most expensive residential US home during a 5 week duration!). Consistent with this theme: cash sales are increasing this year, while first time home buyers are decreasing.

While the housing market may be shaping up to be similar to that of 2011, the reasons for a similar profile are different. We were looking for the market bottom during 2011, as well as assimilating an unprecedented number of distressed properties. However, even though distressed sales are rapidly decreasing; 2014 was supposed to be an extension of last year’s increased sales activity.

What we may be experiencing is the flip side to the housing crisis, as described by Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President in his May 19^thblog post (Nearly One-Third of Americans Live in Counties Where One in Five Homeowners is Underwater: Heat Map; RealtyTrac.com). Blomquist characterized the lack of participation in today’s market as being from the unusually high number of home owners with high loan balances on their home, including the many whose mortgages are underwater. This lack of participation is much like the many homes taken out of the market because of the foreclosure crisis during the downturn. He stated that the “normal flow [of move-up buyers] is being disrupted by homeowners with negative equity who are holding back from becoming move-up buyers, which in turn is impacting the availability of inventory downstream for first-time homebuyers.” According to RealtyTrac, those who are “seriously underwater” (125% or higher of loan balance to home value) account for 11% of Montgomery County MD home owners, while the county average loan balance to home value is about 79%.

The idea of the inactive move-up buyer is not new. In fact it seems to be that move-up buyers were lacking after other deep recessions; the August 17, 1985 article published in the Chicago Tribune titled, “Move-up Buyer Provides The Base For A Recovering Housing Market” is a testimony for such behavior. The timing for the move-up buyer is likely correlated to the time necessary to either recover lost equity; or reach a comfort level for the net amount gained in their home sale.