Tag: real estate

Posted on

Has the housing market improved in the last four years

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

HousingIn retrospect, the beginning of the global recession in late 2007 was the end of the housing boom and may have spawned the foreclosures crisis and the financial crisis of 2008.  And although this period of time will undoubtedly become the basis of many future dissertations examining the “Great Recession;” you might ask “how much has the state of housing improved since 2008?”

If you recall, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) was anticipated to have wide reaching changes in the mortgage and housing industries as well as supposed to have assisted struggling home owners.  This multifaceted piece of legislation consolidated many individual bills addressing issues that were thought to either be the cause or the result of the financial crisis.  Besides raising mortgage loan limits to increase home buyer activity, the historic legislation was the beginning of changes meant to “fix” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as “modernizing” FHA to make the mortgage process easier for home buyers and refinancing easier for struggling home owners. Additionally, this law was the origination of the Hope for Homeowners program to assist home owners facing foreclosure (www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/110/hr3221).

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), originated from HERA, has been the “conservator” of the then sinking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since the FHFA took control, there has been conjecture as to what would become of the mortgage giants: some talked about closing their doors, while some talked about changing their role in the mortgage industry. Since FHFA became the oversight agency, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has strengthened their role in maintaining liquidity in the housing market by helping struggling home owners with their mortgages as well as freeing up lender capital by the continued purchases of loans (fhfa.gov)

The inception of Hope for Homeowners was the beginning of a string of government programs designed to assist home owners facing foreclosure, or assist underwater home owners refinance their mortgage.  Although there have been individual success stories, there has been criticism that these programs did not assist the expected numbers of home owners.  A January 24th CNNMoney article by Tami Luhby (money.cnn.com) reported that “…the HAMP program, which was designed to lower troubled borrowers’ mortgage rates to no more than 31% of their monthly income, ran into problems almost immediately. Many lenders lost documents, and many borrowers didn’t qualify. Three years later, it has helped a scant 910,000 homeowners — a far cry from the promised 4 million…” and “HARP, which was intended to reach 5 million borrowers, has yielded about the same results. Through October, when it was revamped and expanded, the program had assisted 962,000…” (money.cnn.com/2012/01/24/news/economy/Obama_housing/index.htm).

HousingDespite the recent slowdown in foreclosure activity, there is disagreement about the projected number of foreclosures going into 2013.  A March 29th Corelogic news release (www.corelogic.com/about-us/news/corelogic-reports-almost-65,000-completed-foreclosures-nationally-in-february.aspx) reported that there have been about 3.4 million completed foreclosures since 2008 (corelogic.com).  And although an August 9th RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/july-2012-us-foreclosure-market-report-7332) report indicated a 3% decrease from June to July and a 10% decrease from the previous year in foreclosure filings; July’s 6% year over year increase in foreclosure starts (initial foreclosure filings) was the third straight month of increases in foreclosure starts.

So, if you’re wondering if housing is better off today than it was four years ago, the answer may be a resounding “maybe;” It all depends on your situation.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of September 3 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted on

Grading the housing market on a curve – how housing stats can be misleading

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

Home Sale StatisticsDid your teacher ever grade on a curve, where test scores are “weighted” based on the lowest and/or highest score in the class? The typical explanation for such statistical manipulation of raw test scores is to create a distribution where classmates are compared to each other, rather than how well they actually score on the usual grading scale.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) August 22nd news release titled “Existing-Home Sales Improve in July, Prices Continue to Rise” at first glance might seem good news, but after a deeper look the news may not be as promising. The release states that the July’s total existing home sales increased 2.3% in July from June, based on July’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million compared to June’s 4.37 million (realtor.org).

Although the adjusted data may have indicated a significant increase in existing home sales, the raw data may suggest something different. If you follow the links on the NAR’s press release through the website, you’ll find yourself at the page titled, “Existing Home Sales” (realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/data): where you’ll find a links to home sale data – which includes the “seasonally adjusted annual rate” and “not seasonally adjusted” stats.

Although July’s “seasonally adjusted annual rate” of existing home sales indicated a 2.3% increase over June’s “seasonally adjusted annual rate;” the “not seasonally adjusted” rate (e.g., the raw sales data) indicated that there was a 7.3% DECREASE in existing home sales in July compared to June, and a year to date increase of existing home sales of only 2.647%.

So, what’s the difference between “seasonally adjusted” and “not seasonally adjusted” data? Well, for that explanation, we need to follow the links to the methodology (realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales/methodology). “Not seasonally adjusted” data is described as raw data that has been basically scrubbed for errors. However, the site states that “It is necessary to “annualize” and seasonally-adjust the existing home sales data so that month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter comparisons can be observed without seasonal variances distorting the overall picture;” thus the “seasonally adjusted annual rate” may be forward looking figure estimating a rate by which homes are selling.

And of course, many media outlets took the headline and ran with it without explaining the meaning of the “seasonally adjusted annual rate.” July’s figure gives the impression that the housing market has made significant improvement during a month where the actual number of existing homes sales decreased from the previous month. But don’t blame the NAR either: the press release contains links to pages of explanation and data for anyone to take the time to sort through and figure out.

Home Sale StatisticsStatistical analysis can be a good thing, if the statistic is meaningful and is understood. It seems as if everyone already forgot about the criticism that the NAR received last year because they announced a downward revision of existing home sales going back to 2007. If you remember, the main reason given for the revision was for “data drift” that occurred during the housing downturn; and much like other estimate revisions (such as GDP and employment figures) “re-benchmarking” is a common aspect of estimating economic data.

Regardless of what the rate of annual home sales is estimated to be, we’ll know the actual number of existing home sales at the end of the year. And at that time, we can determine what kind of year 2012 has been for housing.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 27 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted on

A new wrinkle for eminent domain

Dan Krell, Realtor®
DanKrell.com
© 2012

eminent domainWhen the housing market began its decent in 2007, foreclosures seemed to occur with the frequency not seen since the S&L crisis of the late 1980’s. Since then, negotiating a lower mortgage payment by modifying the mortgage interest rate and/or reducing the principal continues to be difficult for many home owners.

One of the reasons why modifying a mortgage can be difficult is because of the complicated structure of the Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMIC). A REMIC, is a financial instrument that may have stimulated the wide use of “100% financing” and other high risk mortgages through securitization of mortgages on the secondary market. Although a highly complex structure, a very basic explanation is that the REMIC purchases large pools of mortgages and acts as the trustee for those who own the bonds to which the loans are securitized (mortgage backed securities). Bond holders could be individuals or corporations that may also sell ownership to the bonds as well (e.g., funds, annuities, pension plans). Mortgage modifications in the REMIC environment can be legally complex. Additionally, the inherent complex structure of the REMIC as well as its fiduciary responsibility to its bond holders, makes decisions move at a snail’s pace.

In an effort to assist home owners in their local communities, a few municipalities (most notably San Bernardino County) have considered restructuring mortgages via eminent domain. Eminent domain is the power that government exercises to take private property for public use and pay the owner a “just compensation.” And although eminent domain cases typically involve real property (e.g., land), it may also involve other types of personal property.

Considering that eminent domain is often a contentious topic, you might imagine that there might be some resistance to the condemnation of mortgages by municipalities. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (the FHFA oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) entered a note in the Federal Register on August 9th (“Use of Eminent Domain To Restructure Performing Loans”). The note listed concerns for such practice of eminent domain, among which is a concern that tax payers could ultimately bear the losses incurred from restructuring mortgages through eminent domain. As a result, the FHFA may take action to “avoid a risk to safe and sound operations and to avoid taxpayer expense.”

eminent domainThe Wall Street Journal reported on August 8th (“New Roadblock for Eminent Domain Bid: Housing Regulator”; by Al Yoon) that banking and other related groups are concerned that “stripping loans from investors would create unnecessary losses and reduce the availability of credit.” And, “… the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, or Sifma, has proposed prohibiting loans originated in areas using eminent domain from a key part of the $5 trillion mortgage-backed securities market that is a backbone for U.S. housing finance.”

An article by Rep Brad Miller published in the American Banker on July 11th (“No Wonder Eminent Domain Mortgage Seizures Scare Wall Street”) discussed the impact of eminent domain of mortgages on Wall Street, specifically the four largest banks. Congressman Miller pointed out that there is a cost to lenders holding second mortgages when mortgages are restructured. In particular, the four largest banks, which “hold $363 billion in second liens, very commonly on the same property as first mortgages they service.”

Regardless of the outcome, there is sure to be plenty of posturing; the result may add a new wrinkle in the eminent domain debate.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 13 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Z89E4WPH539G

Posted on

Post crisis real estate investing

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

horseWatching an interview of Chef Bobby Flay this week, talk about the possibly of buying a horse at the Fasig Tipton Yearling Auction in Saratoga Springs, NY, I heard him say, “I’m actually looking at this like buying a building, literally…it’s like buying a really expensive piece of real estate…”

Well, why not buy that expensive piece of real estate? Some experts are still saying that real estate is still one of the core investment assets. For example: Brad Case, of the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts®, in his June 2011 article in Financial Planning (“School is in”; 41, 3), discussed the importance of real estate as an investment class. Case stated that, real estate is a “basic” investment class. He continued by quoting some of the most influential financial experts on real estate investing: “…Burton Malkiel, the Princeton professor and former member of the Council of Economic Advisors who wrote the famous investing manual, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, said, ‘There are only four types of investment categories that you need to consider: cash, bonds, common stocks and real estate.’ Mark Anson, who led the largest pension funds in both the U.S. (CalPERS) and the U.K. (British Telecom), completely agreed: ‘Equity, fixed income, cash and real estate are the basic asset classes that must be held within a diversified portfolio’…”

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

Ann Marsh, in her may 2012 article “Real estate’s rehabilitation” (Financial Planning, 42, 56), also agreed. She stated that not only are financial planners urging their clients to buy into real estate investment trusts (REITs), some planners are urging the “outright” purchase of individual buildings.

Of course, when thinking of real estate investing, most people think about residential real estate – in particular flipping homes or owning rental properties. Investors looking for rental properties tend to look at long term value (appreciation) as well as having a positive cash flow; while home flippers are interested in renovating a home and selling for a quick profit.

commercial real estateResidential real estate is not the only opportunity for investors. Some real estate investors look for deals in commercial buildings; the market downturn has added to the possibilities too. Investors in commercial properties tend to look for development opportunities as well as long term retention.

Another way to invest in real estate is through a real estate investment trust (REIT). The REIT investment structure has been around for many years, and may provide the real estate investor access to investments they might not otherwise purchase on their own. There are many types of REITS, some invest broadly in many types of real estate; while some are focused on specific types of properties (e.g., shopping centers, storage centers, apartments, etc).

Clearly, there are many risks involved in real estate investing. Of course there are financial risks, but there also a time investment required. Additionally: cash flow can become an issue when tenants stop paying rent, or unexpected maintenance issues need attention; rehab or development costs can skyrocket when unexpected obstacles are encountered; and when selling, you may not realize the sale price you initially estimated due to market fluctuations, bad appraisals, etc.

Although some real estate investors are successful; many real estate investors lose money. Before you decide to invest in real estate, you should consult investment, financial, real estate, and other professionals to assist you with the research and due diligence.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of August 6 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Posted on

Are appraisals hindering a housing recovery

foreclosed home
As the housing market receded, low appraisals seemed to be the rule; lower priced comparables were often to blame. As home sellers and their real estate agents become accustomed to the new market, some within the real estate industry continue to complain that low appraisals are still an issue that interferes with the housing market recovery. Many blame low appraisals for keeping home values down as well as killing pending deals.

A recent article by syndicated columnist Ken Harney (House sales hampered by appraisers who fail to recognize appreciation) brought attention to a growing issue that many claim is impeding a housing market recovery. It is clear that appraisers exercise caution and seek the conservative value, which is to avoid liability for the lender having to buy back a loan that does not comply with guidelines. However, another issue that Harney pointed out was the reliance on appraisal management companies.

If you remember, in response to claims of inflated appraisal values due to lender coercion and “undue influence,” the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) was implemented for mortgages bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (then later by FHA). The intention of implementing these new standards of practice was to establish increased accountability and independence in the appraisal industry. One issue that was addressed was to limit communications between the lender and appraiser. As a result, many lenders resorted to using Appraisal Management Companies (AMC) to order and review appraisals.

In rush to meet the new HVCC compliance measures, lenders initially believed they needed to use the AMC to manage appraisals. However, that was not a direct requirement and some lenders have since moved away from using AMCs; subsequently implementing in-house appraisal management systems. Some lenders, however, still rely on the AMC appraisal “middle man” to assign and review appraisals.

Much of the criticism of the AMC is that they are sometimes located quite a distance away from the subject property. Appraisal reviewers who do not have the local experience and data to understand distant markets may make valuation mistakes.

home for sale

Just as quick as the lending industry moved to comply with HVCC, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction – there are some reports of appraisers being coerced to “revise” appraisal values down. If the value is not considered within the lender’s “guidelines,” the appraiser may be requested to revise the valuation prior to submitting to the lender.

Testimony provided to the House Committee on Financial Services hearings on “Appraisal Oversight: The Regulatory Impact on Consumers and Businesses” (June 28th), Francois (Frank) Gregoir, for The National Association of Realtors®, stated: “There are a myriad of circumstances and issues working to hinder the recovery of the nation’s housing market. Among them… are those related to the credible valuation of real property…However, in today’s world there are many road blocks in the way of valuing property and, as a result, allowing for a healthy recovery of the broader real estate industry. Because there are many roadblocks there is no one, “silver bullet” solution.”

Regardless of where blame lay for low appraisals, the outcome and effect on the housing market is clear: some pending sales are falling out; some home buyers are paying additional funds to cover differences between a low appraisal and contract price; and some sellers are pulling homes off the market.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.

by Dan Krell
Copyright © 2012

Proudly powered by WordPress