Debunking myths about foreclosures, timing the housing market, and hiring the “big name” agent

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

Debunking common real estate myths.

real estate myths debunkingAs a real estate agent, I often encounter people who talk about common and persistent real estate myths.  In recent years, these few seem to be among the top myths:

Myth #1: “If you wait until the market bottoms out, you’ll get the best deal”
Counter point: “People trying to time the market may find in hindsight that they will have reacted either too soon or too late.”

Anderson & Harris, in their reveling study Timing the market: You don’t have to be perfect (Real Estate Issues 35, (3) (10): 42-42-50) indicated that you don’t have to be perfect when timing your purchase and sale of a home.  They suggested that you could do just as well to aim your sale during market peaks and your purchase during market lows; however, they conceded that you would most likely know in hindsight when the market is at a peak or low.

Their results demonstrated that the typical “buy and hold strategy” over a thirty year period results in an annualized return of 8.18%; however, buying when a recession has ended with a predetermined sale period yields a wide range of return that ranged from 13.38% to 1.42% annualized total return.

Myth #2: “Buying a distressed home will result in a good purchase.”
Counter point: “There is inherent risk when purchasing distressed homes.”

There is inherent risk when purchasing distressed homes, regardless if they are foreclosures, bank owned homes, or even short sales.  Although short sales are often occupied, foreclosures and bank owned homes are often vacant for many months; these homes are often sold “as-is; where is” meaning you are purchasing the home regardless of the condition of the home.

Besides the purchase and anticipated fix up costs, unanticipated repairs and expenses are often encountered.  However without risk, there is no reward; due diligence, conducting inspections, and hiring the proper representation may reduce the risk and make your purchase a positive experience.

Myth #3: “The ‘big name’ agent with the most home buyers will sell my home quickest and for top dollar.”
Counter point: “Home buyers typically search for homes by characteristics and location, rather than searching for homes sold by individual agents or brokers.”

real estate myths debunkingI have never had a home buyer tell me they want to see (or buy) a home because it is listed by a particular agent or broker.  Rather, home buyers typically search homes by price, physical characteristics, amenities, and/or location.  Home buyers will view your home if it matches their search criteria, regardless of who listed your home.

When interviewing listing agents, look beyond the sales pitch to list your home, and ask for real data and sources to back up claims.  Agents will often not discuss the homes they could not sell; asking about the homes that did not sell as well as the reasons behind the non-sale may be more revealing than flatly accepting claims made by the agent.  Asking for references of satisfied clients of homes that sold as well as homes that did not sell is useful to not only get a recommendation, but also understand how the agent conducts business.  Ultimately, your home purchase or sale falls upon the experience and skill of the agent you hire. Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 23 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

The economy, stupid

Is the housing bust over, or is it about the economy (stupid)?

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

Unemployment officeLast week’s Wall Street Journal report that the housing bust is over has grabbed everyone’s attention (Housing Passes a Milestone; wsj.com). The WSJ reported that of forty-seven “forecasters” surveyed, forty-four believe that the housing market has bottomed out. There are several factors cited by these “experts” as rationale for the stating the bust is over, as well as asserting that the housing market will not be a further drag on the economy. However, many experts may be missing some data points; as well as not recognizing causality.

Although the U.S. housing bust may be over (for now), as experts proclaim; other regions of the world are struggling. Two of the most influential economic regions, Europe and China, are experiencing real estate slumps.

According to a May 31st report in The Economist (Downdraft: European house prices are finding it harder to defy gravity), global house-price indicators point to increased volatility. Although, Europe’s housing markets experienced similar declines we experienced during the financial crisis; individual countries differed in their housing outcomes. Troubled economies, such as Ireland and Spain, continue to have lagging housing markets. Ireland’s already depreciated home prices are reportedly continuing to drop; while Spain’s home prices are reportedly over valued while prices also continue to drop. However, Germany, France, and Belgium’s housing bounced back relatively quickly and reportedly appreciated through last year.

However, as recession looms and unemployment increases in the Eurozone; The Economist reported that the pace of housing depreciation increased in weaker countries, while housing appreciation stalled in Germany and France.

The other big economy that may also show signs of stalling is China. China’s recent GDP growth was reported to be 7.9%. From a bustling economy that reported GDP growth over 10% in 2010, and GDP growth over 9% in 2011, the shrinking GDP may be a signal. Although overall Chinese housing prices are reportedly flat, some have reported that some provinces have experienced as much as a 30% drop.

Although the Chinese housing market is a bit different than the U.S., (private property ownership is a relatively recent development); albeit volatile, housing is a component of the Chinese economy. A December 2011 report by Patrick Chovanec in Foreign Affairs (China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped) indicated that Beijing new home prices dropped 35% in November 2011. Property agencies reported that new home inventories are building and buyers are hard to find.

Additionally, The China Perspective reported in January that re-sale home sales volume dropped about 23%. As a result, real estate agencies are closing offices. It was reported that an average 3.8 offices closed daily in Beijing; while the number of real estate agency offices in Shanghai has been reduced 40% since their housing peak.

Unemployment officeAs other global housing markets stall, there may be a silver lining. The devaluation of residential real estate abroad has attracted foreign investors to U.S. housing. Although international buyers have bought homes at all price levels, the luxury real estate market seems to be attracting most attention.

But back to what the experts proclaim as the bottom of the market – yes there are some positive signs, but it’s too early to tell if the bust is over. And although these experts proclaim that housing will no longer drag the economy; the reality may be that it’s the economy that’s dragging the housing market.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 16 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.
Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

Homebuyers looking to home builders to fill inventory void

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

Home buyers are looking to home builders to fill the void in low home inventory; new home builders seizing opportunity to capitalize on housing market conditions.

New homes for sale
If you’re a frustrated home buyer actively looking to for a house, you may have realized that the pickings are slim. You’re not alone if you feel exasperated after months of looking for your dream home; you may have also lost out in a multi-offer scenario. If you feel you’re ready to give up for and rent, take heart; home builders are jumping in to fill the void.

Even the National Association of Realtors® (June 21st) reported that the limited housing inventory has held back sales of existing homes. Chief NAR Economist, Lawrence Yun stated in the press release, “The slight pullback in monthly home sales is more likely due to supply constraints rather than softening demand. The normal seasonal upturn in inventory did not occur this spring… (realtor.org).

According to the NAR, total housing inventory decreased 0.4%, which resulted in about 2.49 million existing homes for sale (or about a 6.6 month supply). Furthermore, housing inventory is 20.4% less than the same time last year; when there was a 9.1 month supply of homes for sale.

Local inventory numbers reported by the Greater Capital Area Association of Realtors® (gcaar.com) is consistent with the national decrease in housing inventory. GCAAR reported that year to date listings through May of single family homes in Montgomery County is about 18.7% lower than listings from the prior year through the same period.

Although the shortage of home listings seems to be holding back the re-sale market, home builders appear to be seizing on an opportunity; new single family home sales are at a two year high, according to Reuters (New home sales race to two-year high in May; June 25, 2012). Many home buyers, dissatisfied with existing homes listed for sale, are opting to purchase new.

New homes for sale
The National Association of Home Builders (nahb.com) reported on June 18th that home builder confidence is at its highest since May 2007. And why not? Home builders are capitalizing on what seems to be a stagnant re-sale market. Increased sales are coming from those disappointed home buyers who cannot find a re-sale home but want to take advantage of the combined low prices and mortgage interest rates.

Clients of new home builders are also finding there are additional benefits to owning a brand new home: In addition to having new systems, many components are energy efficient; floor plans tend to be contemporary; and exterior designs are trendy. Another benefit of buying “new” is that, unless the home is not spec (already built, often a model home), you may have an opportunity to choose finishes and upgrades; everything will be ready for you to move in. What’s more is that you typically get warranties on the appliances and systems in a new home, so if something doesn’t work properly you can usually get it fixed – as long as it is covered and within the warranty period.

If you’ve not yet looked into purchasing a new home, ask your real estate agent for ideas of what’s available in new home communities, custom homes, or through spec builders. Home builders often list their inventory in the local MLS as well as advertising on various websites. When you visit a home builder, take your agent along with you; they may have knowledge of buyer incentives and closeout models that builders are trying to sell first.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 9 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.
Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

Protect your home before disasters and emergencies happen

Protect your home before disasters and emergencies happen

by Dan Krell © 2012
DanKrell.com

Protect your homeUnlike recent years, when we experienced blizzards, earthquakes, and hurricanes, this year’s weather has been mild thus far – that is until last week. Although the disasters and emergencies we typically experience are usually local and often weather related; disasters/emergencies can also originate from other sources, such as: power outages, terrorism, wildfires, civil unrest, earthquakes, and pandemic health concerns. Even though we had some warning of the approaching storm, the after effects emphasize the need for preparedness.

If you don’t yet have a plan (or would like to update your current plan), preparedness information is available through Federal Agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA.gov), the Department of Homeland Security (dhs.gov), and the Centers for Diseases Control (cdc.gov), and Citizen Corps (citizencorps.gov) .

FEMA’s “Are You Ready? An In-depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness” is a comprehensive source on individual, family and community preparedness. In addition to the pamphlet, there is an interactive guide with the focus “on how to develop, practice, and maintain emergency plans that reflect what must be done before, during, and after a disaster/emergency to protect people and their property” (www.ready.gov/are-you-ready-guide).

Montgomery County’s Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security offers advice on planning and preparing a disaster kit, as well as recommending to sign up for “Alert Montgomery,” which can alert you to emergencies by text messages, twitter, email and other devices (www.montgomerycountymd.gov/oemtmpl.asp?url=/content/homelandsecurity/index.asp).

Preparing for disaster/emergency also includes making sure your property insurance is adequate. Having the proper coverage may help you recover from a disaster quicker than those without coverage. Experts recommend that you review your home owners’ policy with your insurance agent (or insurance company representative) to make sure your coverage is up to date and is able to replace your home and/or possessions in case of a catastrophic loss.

Protect your homeAdditional recommendations to mitigate damage from weather related disaster/emergency come from the American Insurance Association (aiadc.org). Your home can be prepared by ensuring that doors and windows are secure; ensuring that exterior doors should have at least three hinges and a deadbolt length of at least one inch; replacing older garage doors and windows for systems that are certified for wind and impact; consider storm shutter installation; repairing any cracks or leaks around windows, doors, roof, exterior walls and foundation; ensuring that gutters and downspouts are secure and can drain water at least five feet from your home; inspect the roof and repair if necessary; remove loose debris from around the home; remove dead or dying trees and shrubs; trim back tree limbs from your home’s exterior and roof; compile an inventory of your home’s contents by taking pictures or video.

Recognize your risks and plan accordingly. FEMA offers mitigation and risk planning resources such as: flood maps, loss mitigation software, and the risk management series. Along with these resources, FEMA offers specific advice on protecting your home or business from natural disasters, earthquakes, fire, flood and high winds (www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/howto/index.shtm).

And if you’ve yet prepared for the Zombie Apocalypse, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention remarks that “it’s better to be safe than sorry.” The CDC offers “Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse:” preparedness for the Zombie Apocalypse and real emergencies (blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2011/05/preparedness-101-zombie-apocalypse).

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of July 2 , 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector

This is not your father’s housing recession or recovery

by Dan Krell ©2012
DanKrell.com

homesWhen the housing market began its decent into uncharted territory in 2007, people talked of a “V” shaped housing market recovery, meaning that they braced for a market bottom followed by an upturn of increasing activity. What many experts are now talking about is an “L” shaped market recovery, where the housing market will hit bottom and not begin its ascent for a number of years. In retrospect, we have experienced the market’s bouncing along the bottom for at least 2 years (seeing inconsistent activity from month to month); although some still think that the market has yet to bottom out.

Two reasons why the housing market may continue to drag along the bottom include the dramatic loss of net worth in recent years and the recent increase in foreclosure activity.

The fact that the mean (average) income fell 7.7% is nothing compared to the 38.8% drop of mean net worth, as reported by a recent Federal Reserve Bulletin, “Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2007 to 2010: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances” (fed.gov). The report stated, “Although declines in the values of financial assets or business were important factors for some families, the decreases in median net worth appear to have been driven most strongly by a broad collapse in house prices.” The report further clarifies, “…The decline in median net worth was especially large for families in groups where housing was a larger share of assets, such as families headed by someone 35 to 44 years old (median net worth fell 54.4 percent)…”

This report underscores what many in the industry have known, but have not fully admitted about the weak move-up market; the dramatic loss of home equity in recent years has not only made it difficult for many to sell their homes, but also has taken away the means to purchase another [home]. Additionally, the combination of diminished net worth and reduced income has forced many would-be first time home buyers to wait on the sidelines.

Additionally, foreclosures have not been news for some time, but the reduced foreclosure activity in the past year was said to be temporary in response to legal challenges and the robo-signing fiasco. As the shadow inventory (homes in foreclosure or bank owned) has been building up, many speculate the impact when foreclosure activity picks up.

A recent RealtyTrac (realtytrac.com) press release reveals that foreclosure filings have picked up and discusses the possible outcome. Besides a 9% increase in nationwide default notices was reported in May; RealtyTrack reported, “Foreclosure starts nationwide increased on an annual basis after 27 consecutive months of year-over-year declines.”

Lenders are becoming increasingly aware of the benefits of selling distressed homes as short sales over repossessing them. Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac, was reported to say that the increase of pre-foreclosure sales is an indication that many recent foreclosure filings may end up as short sales or auctioned to third parties, rather than becoming REO (bank owned).

The dramatic loss of net worth along with continued foreclosure activity only contributes to the changing perception of home ownership. This housing recovery will certainly be recorded in the history books as one of the most protracted and having a lasting impact; this is not your father’s housing recovery.

More news and articles on “the Blog”
This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This article was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel the week of June 25, 2012. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws. Copyright © 2012 Dan Krell.

Protected by Copyscape Web Plagiarism Detector