Debt ceiling, default, and fear; how housing market will react
There are no courthouse default notices, and it is unlikely for real estate investors to go knocking on the white house doors to try to purchase it as a short sale. Although a government default is not quite the same as a default on your mortgage, a government default will nonetheless have consequences in the housing market.
A U.S. default would be uncharted economic waters; there is no way to know exactly what will happen – but it will most certainly not be good. When speculating about the consequences of a government default, some talk about 1930’s Germany and 1990’s Russia; these defaults occurred for different reasons and had different outcomes.
Experts discuss a possible consequence of a government default to be an almost immediate economic recession, which could rapidly evolve into a depression. The resulting shock from a possible economic contraction would filter through the economy and would no doubt result in mass layoffs. And just like the most recent recession, mass unemployment had deleterious effects in the housing market and real estate industry resulting in waves of foreclosures and property devaluation.
Other possible outcomes of a default could be runaway inflation, sky high interest rates, and/or general economic calamity. In these scenarios, forget about a housing recovery; home buyers could find it exponentially difficult to obtain a mortgage to buy a home. Homeowners who have fixed rate mortgages should be safe from payment increases; however those with adjustable rate mortgages could possibly see interest rate increases hitting adjustment caps.
In an October 9th article, Morgan Housel wrote (“What Happens If the U.S. Defaults on Its Debt?”; fool.com); “…Those holding bad mortgage debt fared the worst in 2008, but financial pain spread throughout the entire financial system, and to areas that had nothing to do with real estate. The reason was fear. If the global financial system is built on credit, it is supported by trust. When you remove trust, people hide now and ask questions later. The system freezes. I don’t want to lend to you because you might hold something bad, or be lending to someone who is holding something bad, or be lending to someone who is lending to someone who is holding something bad. So people just wait. Credit stops flowing, and as we learned in 2008, that simply devastates the economy… But a credit crisis doesn’t need to last long to bring the house down. Lehman Brothers was well capitalized two days before it was bankrupt…”
Fear is a very powerful emotion that can be used to influence popular beliefs and behavior. As congressional budget talks have been at a standstill, talk of a government default seems to be on everyone’s mind as we approach the debt ceiling. And although we fear a government default, the distinction must be made between default and debt ceiling.
Put in a very simple way: raising the debt ceiling is akin to asking for an increase in your credit card limit. However, you don’t default just because your credit limit is not raised; you default when you fail to make payments on your debt. Even if there is no debt ceiling increase, many experts agree that a chance of a U.S. default is slim; it has been estimated that treasury revenue is much more than the amount needed for debt servicing. Regardless, the fear of a government default is enough to chill the housing market.
Disclaimer. This article is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. Readers should not rely solely on the information contained herein, as it does not purport to be comprehensive or render specific advice. Readers should consult with an attorney regarding local real estate laws and customs as they vary by state and jurisdiction. Using this article without permission is a violation of copyright laws.
